Wednesday Numbers: Catching Fire 20.7m, Frozen 15.2m, Thor 2.3m (yay) Smashing like a Wrecking Ball!

[stripe]

With a 22 million Wednesday, and unless something strange happens, I would say over 100 million 5-day is locked. It could be close to 110 (22+16+29+28+14=109). So, 295 by Sunday. 400 million run is back and probably done. Congrats to Katniss fans.

 

I think 400M is almost locked at this point.

[theultimatebiu]

If it passes $400M that would be insane. I am 50/50 on that.

[kitik]

Last year cumilative gross was just over 200M for top 12(and over $207M for overall). But this weekend could go after all time record set during avatar's 2nd weekend.

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/top12sum.htm

 

First of all, thanks for the answer.

 

Second of all, whoa nellie! All time record? I don't think so.

 

In case you missed it, Rth had this to say about the Wednesdays for Black Nativity and Homefront:

 

 

BN wont get close to 1m, home that will it may manage to go as high as 1.3

 

 

I think CF and Frozen should add up to about 130. But even if you get ultra optimistic and say they'll add up to 150,  the problem is that the next 5 movies on the list (Thor, DeliveryMan, BestManHoliday, Black Nativity, and Homefront) probably won't even add up to 50 between them. And the rest of the movies below that won't even come close to making up the rest of the difference to get up to the all time record of 259.

 

Beating last year's Thanksgiving would be good enough. The problem is that this weekend is going to very top heavy. The top 2 are great, but then there's a huge gap to everything else.

 

Heck, if the openers disappoint, there's a chance Thor will be #3 by default. We'll have to see if those openers can turn around those Wednesday numbers. I kind of think they can, just because most people don't expect movies to open on Wednesday. It's one thing if it's a big famous movie that folks are paying attention to, but for smaller movies like Homefront and Black Nativity, people really don't expect non-Friday openings for those.

 

(I'm not a fan of Statham, but I'll buy a ticket for Homefront just to see James Franco.)

[MovieMan89]

If it passes $400M that would be insane. I am 50/50 on that.

It should be creeping up on 300m at the end of the weekend. It's gonna have to just roll over and die after the weekend to not make 400 at this point I think.

[kitik]

 I hope Gravity and Captain Phillips will also have good holds this weekend

 

Doubtful. Huge theater count losses for both:

 

 

 

> DECLINING
3	2	Thor: The Dark World	Buena Vista	3,286	-427	-11.5%	-	-	-	-	4
6	3	Free Birds	Relativity	2,287	-784	-25.5%	-	-	-	-	5
7	5	Last Vegas	CBS Films	1,854	-1,072	-36.6%	-	-	-	-	5
8	7	The Best Man Holiday	Universal	1,717	-324	-15.9%	-	-	-	-	3
10	6	Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa	Paramount	1,503	-1,122	-42.7%	-	-	-	-	6
12	11	12 Years a Slave	Fox Searchlight	1,165	-309	-21.0%	-	-	-	-	7
13	9	Gravity	Warner Bros.	1,016	-829	-44.9%	-	-	-	-	9
14	8	Ender's Game	Lionsgate/Summit	843	-1,192	-58.6%	-	-	-	-	5
15	10	Captain Phillips	Sony / Columbia	807	-849	-51.3%	-	-	-	-	8
17	12	Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2	Sony / Columbia	707	-414	-36.9%	-	-	-	-	10
20	13	About Time	Universal	331	-719	-68.5%	-	-	-	-	5
21	17	Despicable Me 2	Universal	271	-24	-8.1%	-	-	-	-	22

[Batman]

21+ 15 + 27 + 23 +14 = 100M 5 day.

[CJohn]

22M?! YES! YES! YES! GOD YES!

[forg]

 

Doubtful. Huge theater count losses for both:

 

 

 

> DECLINING 3 2 Thor: The Dark World Buena Vista 3,286 -427 -11.5% - - - - 4 6 3 Free Birds Relativity 2,287 -784 -25.5% - - - - 5 7 5 Last Vegas CBS Films 1,854 -1,072 -36.6% - - - - 5 8 7 The Best Man Holiday Universal 1,717 -324 -15.9% - - - - 3 10 6 Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa Paramount 1,503 -1,122 -42.7% - - - - 6 12 11 12 Years a Slave Fox Searchlight 1,165 -309 -21.0% - - - - 7 13 9 Gravity Warner Bros. 1,016 -829 -44.9% - - - - 9 14 8 Ender's Game Lionsgate/Summit 843 -1,192 -58.6% - - - - 5 15 10 Captain Phillips Sony / Columbia 807 -849 -51.3% - - - - 8 17 12 Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 Sony / Columbia 707 -414 -36.9% - - - - 10 20 13 About Time Universal 331 -719 -68.5% - - - - 5 21 17 Despicable Me 2 Universal 271 -24 -8.1% - - - - 22

 

 

Ouch but glad CP made it to $100M already

[A Marvel Fanboy]

So how big is The Hobbit DOS supposed to open?

40~60m, tracking says lol

[Moviefanatic]

First time loggin on today and I am blessed with a 22 million number for CF...FUCK YESSSSSSSSSS!!! Go Katniss wit your fine ass!!!!

 

Onward to 400+ million

[CJohn]

Don't fuck up with Katniss.

 

[Jessie]

Wait wait wait, 22m Wednesday??? does that make 400m likely??

[Jack Nevada]

Do we have numbers for Oldboy or Black Nativity yet?

[kitik]

Wait wait wait, 22m Wednesday??? does that make 400m likely??

 

400M isn't a 100% lock, but I'd say it's better than a 50/50 chance right now.

[Jessie]

This will have late Christmas legs as well.

[SchumacherFTW]

Do we have numbers for Oldboy or Black Nativity yet?

Black Nativity was sub $1m

[forg]

Do we have numbers for Oldboy or Black Nativity yet?

 

rth said <$1M for Black Nativity, none so far for Oldboy

[kitik]

Do we have numbers for Oldboy or Black Nativity yet?

 

Nothing for Oldboy yet, but for anyone just getting here, here are the latest Rth numbers for CF, Frozen, Thor, BMH, DM, and then for Black Nativity and Homefront in the second post:

 

 

Thinking up Frozen from 14-15 to 15-16m (or maybe just say 14-16 LOL), CF still 22m,Thor 2.6-7m, DM 1.4, TBMH 1.2

 

 

BN wont get close to 1m, home that will it may manage to go as high as 1.3

[TLK]

I think weekend numbers will tell the story. My guess is that it needs to make 75% of its eventual total by the end of this weekend so $300 million by sunday will make $400 million very likely. Next week isn't going to be good for any movie and then The Hobbit opens the week after that so nothing over $100 million is a given after this Sunday.

[The Stingray]

The night is darkest just before the dawn. And I promise you, the dawn is coming.

 

Futurist feeling like a boss right now.

Edited November 28, 2013 by The Stingray