Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[The GOAT]

1 hour ago, NCsoft said:

Pretty simple, we used to throw out $3.8 - 4B projections in the past few years based on the believe that a film as successful as the original in a 40% expanded global market would amount of at least that much, provided A2 can capture the same level of magic. Those predictions were always predicated on an assumed $800M to $1B in China, subtract that , leaves about $3B, so those predictions doesn't really change, just subtract China.

I think my optimistic scenario is in that range as well, granted it is on the more "optimistic" side.

If $2.55B Worldwide-China can be done in 2009, $3B Worldwide-China-Russia is likely doable in 2022 (pandemic complicates things a little). China isn't the only market expanded, and certainly not the only market with ticket inflation or increase in premium format.

20 billies can easily happen. 

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, The GOAT said:

20 billies can easily happen. 

only 20?

[Valonqar]

3 hours ago, Reddroast said:

I'm curious as to your reasoning 

 

No reason. When you go BIG you leave all reason behind. You just follow your inner eye. 

[Macleod]

8 hours ago, Alexdube said:

don't think Avatar playing or not playing in China will change much in the grand scheme of things

 

it would just suck for the poor Chinese Avatar fans who waited 13 years to see the sequel on the big screen like everyone else

 

 

Sure it sucks for them.  But how many economic and cultural cruelties to their own psychologies does it take before they want to overthrow their government? Sooner or later, I'm OK with writing off the larger population in terms of caring, too.  If they're too brainwashed to take action en masse, then oh well...sympathy declines.  There are a billion ways to still be Chinese and patriotic and not buy into communist or authoritarian ideology.  

Edited May 13, 2022 by Macleod

[porginchina]

Why have we collectively decided that The Way of Water won't play in China? There are still seven months to go. So far, all indications within China are that the movie will play in theaters.

 

Some factors in Avatar's favor—

1. Censorship is a non-issue with Avatar 2. The movie uses an off-planet far-future setting far removed from issues that the CCP deems politically sensitive, plus the villainous RDA is coded as American, which can only help things. The US military-industrial complex being bad is a totally okay message for China. Also, Cameron/Lightstorm are well aware that China is a huge potential market and the movie will have been engineered to make it past Chinese censorship unscathed.
2. The Chinese government's been promoting sustainability measures for the past years (they've outlawed a bunch of disposable plastic, water conservation campaigns are everywhere in China, green energy is a huge thing here); again, this helps The Way of Water.
3. The movie ties in neatly with Chinese tourism initiatives, especially since it's now confirmed that the sequel will be returning to areas inspired by the mountains of Zhangjiajie National Park (plus there's still a possibility for building a Pandora themed land at Shanghai Disneyland, driving further economic growth). Being able to promote Chinese elements within the movie, such as the landscapes of Pandora, helps.
4. Disney's not exactly a China favorite at the moment, but Cameron himself is on good political terms with China (see: the first movie's 2021 re-release, which came complete with a special video introduction for Chinese audiences). Hollywood movies in general are still getting into China (Fantastic Beasts, The Batman, Jurassic World, just to name a few).
5. One that could swing things either way— China's box office has been weak throughout 2021 and 2022, with things truly diving off a cliff thanks to omicron/dynamic zero-Covid (doesn't help that Spring Festival was soft this year and The Battle at Lake Changjin II was unable to expand its audience beyond the nationalistic crowd). Chinese theaters are struggling right now. The US/Canada will surpass China's box office by the end of the month. Letting Avatar play could give a much-needed boost to theater owners and re-emphasize the importance of the Chinese market (while no Hollywood movie has topped the Chinese box office since Transformers: Age of Extinction, I could actually see The Way of Water being able to pull that feat off).

We've still got seven months to go and the situation in China remains extremely fluid as the Party's prized social stability falls under increasingly greater pressure with what feels like every passing day. But if they can get Covid under control (not technically impossible) and get the economy functional again… at this point in time, all indications are that The Way of Water releases in mainland China.

 

(I wrote a longer/more fleshed-out version of this as a blog post [https://middlekingdomboxoffice.wordpress.com/2022/05/13/will-avatar-2-release-in-china/ ] should anybody want to check my fuller thought process)

[JustLurking]

16 minutes ago, porginchina said:

Why have we collectively decided that The Way of Water won't play in China? There are still seven months to go. So far, all indications within China are that the movie will play in theaters.

 

Some factors in Avatar's favor—

1. Censorship is a non-issue with Avatar 2. The movie uses an off-planet far-future setting far removed from issues that the CCP deems politically sensitive, plus the villainous RDA is coded as American, which can only help things. The US military-industrial complex being bad is a totally okay message for China. Also, Cameron/Lightstorm are well aware that China is a huge potential market and the movie will have been engineered to make it past Chinese censorship unscathed.
2. The Chinese government's been promoting sustainability measures for the past years (they've outlawed a bunch of disposable plastic, water conservation campaigns are everywhere in China, green energy is a huge thing here); again, this helps The Way of Water.
3. The movie ties in neatly with Chinese tourism initiatives, especially since it's now confirmed that the sequel will be returning to areas inspired by the mountains of Zhangjiajie National Park (plus there's still a possibility for building a Pandora themed land at Shanghai Disneyland, driving further economic growth). Being able to promote Chinese elements within the movie, such as the landscapes of Pandora, helps.
4. Disney's not exactly a China favorite at the moment, but Cameron himself is on good political terms with China (see: the first movie's 2021 re-release, which came complete with a special video introduction for Chinese audiences). Hollywood movies in general are still getting into China (Fantastic Beasts, The Batman, Jurassic World, just to name a few).
5. One that could swing things either way— China's box office has been weak throughout 2021 and 2022, with things truly diving off a cliff thanks to omicron/dynamic zero-Covid (doesn't help that Spring Festival was soft this year and The Battle at Lake Changjin II was unable to expand its audience beyond the nationalistic crowd). Chinese theaters are struggling right now. The US/Canada will surpass China's box office by the end of the month. Letting Avatar play could give a much-needed boost to theater owners and re-emphasize the importance of the Chinese market (while no Hollywood movie has topped the Chinese box office since Transformers: Age of Extinction, I could actually see The Way of Water being able to pull that feat off).

We've still got seven months to go and the situation in China remains extremely fluid as the Party's prized social stability falls under increasingly greater pressure with what feels like every passing day. But if they can get Covid under control (not technically impossible) and get the economy functional again… at this point in time, all indications are that The Way of Water releases in mainland China.

 

(I wrote a longer/more fleshed-out version of this as a blog post [https://middlekingdomboxoffice.wordpress.com/2022/05/13/will-avatar-2-release-in-china/ ] should anybody want to check my fuller thought process)

Good post, I agree with all of this. If the film does get banned, though, I think it'll be because of the protectionism point (which you mention in the blog post), where they might just not really want a foreign film making too much in China. Though they could potentially circumvent this by cutting off the release or giving it a bad date instead if they perceive the movie to be too threatening to the internal market. At the same time though, I agree that with theaters struggling so much, they might be more lenient towards A2 since the market needs some potent hits pretty badly right now.

Edited May 13, 2022 by JustLurking

[SchumacherFTW]

9 hours ago, YourMother said:

I mean yes pandemic recovery is slow but like five months ago in the heat of Omicron, No Way Home did a $800m+ domestic run and nearly $2B with many markets shuttered. If the film is big enough audiences will flock and I’m confident at the bare minimum A2 will top NWH WW. Hell even in the case of older audiences, Top Gun Maverick which skews far more older than Avatwo is tracking at a $100m+ opening so there’s really not much to be too concerned about.

The UK had two movies enter the all time top 5 in the space of 3 months (relegating Avatar with that actually), safe to say we're pretty much back to normal here barring the competitively barren release schedule

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Didn't the CCP pull the first film from theaters in order to boost a local film? And that was ages before the recent rejection of Hollywood films there. I'm just going to assume Avatar 2 is not getting a release there until proven otherwise.

 

Gamers too were swearing up and down that Starfield would make it to this year.

[IronJimbo]

15 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Didn't the CCP pull the first film from theaters in order to boost a local film? And that was ages before the recent rejection of Hollywood films there. I'm just going to assume Avatar 2 is not getting a release there until proven otherwise.

 

Gamers too were swearing up and down that Starfield would make it to this year.

It did, but then it put back in cinemas againa afterwards. I don't think it had a giant impact but it lost money. The Chinese film was 'Confucius'

 

 

Edited May 13, 2022 by IronJimbo

[Tarintino]

17 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Didn't the CCP pull the first film from theaters in order to boost a local film? And that was ages before the recent rejection of Hollywood films there. I'm just going to assume Avatar 2 is not getting a release there until proven otherwise.

 

Gamers too were swearing up and down that Starfield would make it to this year.

Avatar is the only hollywood movie that would likely cause the Chinese people to riot should it not be released. I personally don't think they will ban it, especially considering they recently gave the original a re-release. It's not like it has any character named Captain America

[titanic2187]

Let’s pray china box office flop(especially those local blockbusters) so so bad in the next few months that they have to approve avatar 2 to save them. 

[IronJimbo]

2 hours ago, SchumacherFTW said:

The UK had two movies enter the all time top 5 in the space of 3 months (relegating Avatar with that actually), safe to say we're pretty much back to normal here barring the competitively barren release schedule

American Cinema is in a really good state too

If Spider Man: No Way home gross within 6% of AVENGERS: ENDGAME, then yeah domestic is looking pretty strong right now.

Edited May 13, 2022 by IronJimbo

[SchumacherFTW]

15 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Let’s pray china box office flop(especially those local blockbusters) so so bad in the next few months that they have to approve avatar 2 to save them. 

I've seen some big local movies scheduled there for CNY 2023, but are there any scheduled during this year? 

[porginchina]

36 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

I've seen some big local movies scheduled there for CNY 2023, but are there any scheduled during this year? 

One of the difficulties with tracking China's box office is that movies tend to get scheduled really last-second compared to other territories. While they'll announce some of the Spring Festival (Chinese New Year) movies well in advance, other holidays are… less fixed. I believe there are a few movies floating around that could be big, including 超能一家人 (roughly, Superpowered Family), a starry comedy that was originally scheduled for Spring Festival and then delayed indefinitely (could release this summer). I'd expect a big patriotic movie or two for National Day in October, although I'm not sure what those might be.

[titanic2187]

4 hours ago, SchumacherFTW said:

I've seen some big local movies scheduled there for CNY 2023, but are there any scheduled during this year? 

Something powerful about china box office  market, breakout can come from any movie, regardless if they are big or small. Unlike in NA where top 10 box office grosser are generally in line with the candidates in prediction, china box office is still largely unpredictable. Nobody expect dangal, zootopia, coco , capernaum , hi mom and a lot others to breakout like the way they did. Therefore, even big hyped release were flop, a surprise hit can be hidden out there with no signs of breaking out until the release. 

[TomCruiseTop]

Another JCS prediction (after getting the re-release right) Avatar 3 comes out 15th Dec 2023. 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

33 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

Another JCS prediction (after getting the re-release right) Avatar 3 comes out 15th Dec 2023. 

Not a chance in hell the VFX are finished on time.

 

That being said, I do agree that Rogue Squadron likely isn't making it to that date. Disney will likely want to put something there, but a VFX-heavy movie like Avatar 3 can't be it. I'll say it again: their Snow White remake is the most likely candidate to take that slot. I could also see Little Mermaid shift there if VFX crunch gets the best of it.

[IronJimbo]

12 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Not a chance in hell the VFX are finished on time.

 

That being said, I do agree that Rogue Squadron likely isn't making it to that date. Disney will likely want to put something there, but a VFX-heavy movie like Avatar 3 can't be it. I'll say it again: their Snow White remake is the most likely candidate to take that slot. I could also see Little Mermaid shift there if VFX crunch gets the best of it.

?

[Torontofan]

rewatched avatar its a visual treat.

 

As long this is the same this will do well but I dont think records will fall 

[Lothar]

1 hour ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

Another JCS prediction (after getting the re-release right) Avatar 3 comes out 15th Dec 2023. 

I'm afraid A2 will continue to dominate Cinema more than A1 did. Original pulled out from the Cinema on August 2010. But this one will continue longer than that.