Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[titanic2187]

Nothing wrong with Disney’s CEO statement, marvel is still profitable without china. It is pity to lose china market but neither that kill marvel. 
 

it is only wrong in the eyes of CCP since their eyes are full of G-spot that got triggered easily.

[dignam]

Trailer in 4k and 60fps 🤩

 

 

Edited May 12, 2022 by dignam

[Alexdube]

don't think Avatar playing or not playing in China will change much in the grand scheme of things

 

it would just suck for the poor Chinese Avatar fans who waited 13 years to see the sequel on the big screen like everyone else

 

[AN9815]

The teaser is really beautiful and people are intrigued by it but I don't think there'll be a huge rush factor like Endgame, although it could end up outgrossing it. I really want to watch this in theatres just by how beautiful it looks. I think it is pretty safe to make sooooo much money and could come close or outgross the first one, the other sequels planned tho I am not so sure yet...

 

Right now I think:

OW: $224M

DOM: $870M

WW: $2,44B without China

[eridani]

I've tried using the teaser view numbers to predict some kind of figure for Avatar 2 opening... but it's damn hard. 

148 million views is pretty clear. The first weekend box office numbers, before the teaser went online is also fairly easy to calculate, roughly 18 million tickets sold in the US and another 35 million, give or take, in the rest of the world. So roughly 200 million views.

 

Assuming these other trailers did go online before they hit the theaters, some comparison can be made.

 

335 million for spiderman NWH teaser in its first 24 hours.

209 million for thor LaT. Sadly, we don't know how much will Thor open to.

All the other trailer numbers are not that recent,  unfortunately, so comparison must be done carefully.

Lion King teaser did 224 million views, 3.5 years ago.

 

Avengers Endgame trailer had 268 million, but that was 3 years ago now. its first ever teaser was 3 and half year ago and did 289 million. Of course, going too much in the past is tricky as not as many people around the world had super quick access to the trailer. So even those figures likely need to be somehow adjusted. Avengers Infinity war first teaser did 230 million, back in november 2017. That too would likely need to be adjusted, even more.

 

It teaser trailer seems to be a bit more comparable. It did 197 million back in march 2017.

 

We have very old example SW: force awakens, which shows how a teaser can be improved  upon in view numbers when a trailer comes. teaser did 55 million views, a full year before the movie came out. first trailer did 88 million. then last trailer, just 2 months before the premiere did 112 million views.

 

So... one MIGHT try to say that avatar 2 will do:

56% of Spiderman NWH opening weekend.

or that it will do a bit over 100% of It's opening weekend.

or that it will do 100% of Lion King's opening weekend.

 

But there are also examples such as Mulan. Its teaser trailer did 175 million views. Yet its international box office was abysmal. Some could say "but that's because it didn't get a theater release in the US" but there are plenty of movies which first start their run abroad and rake in a bunch of money before the US release happens. Yet Mulan did only 67 million abroad.

 

Still, if we disregard Mulan (not sure if a wise move though) then the above four extrapolations suggest Avatar 2 might take in 

192 million or Lion King's 192 million

130-ish million of It's 123 million 

146 million of Spider-Man's 260 million

 

If one adjust the results for inflation, then Lion King did 217 million and It did 144 million. Even Spiderman did 270 million.

 

So roughly 160 million or 217 million or 152 million?

 

It might play a little bit more like Lion King, with family audiences. But then again, it could also play a bit more like regular teenager oriented movies...

 

Without any further trailers it's hard to say. Their numbers will show the trajectory. If they manage to increase view numbers like SW: TFA, then Avatar 2 is sure to be a massive hit. But if they follow the Avengers trajectory, where teaser trailers had more views than final trailers - then the figures above - 150 to 200-ish million are the best opening there is.

 

Of course, there's much more to any movie's performance than just the opening weekend. If Avatar 2 manages to play out like the first one, with tiny drops, then who knows. But that'll really depend on A) movie's quality and B ) perception of the movie by today's audiences.

 

[IronJimbo]

40 minutes ago, dignam said:

Trailer in 4k and 60fps 🤩

*VID WAS HERE*ironjimbo speaking lol

Just so everyone knows, this is not an official version of the trailer. It's cool and I like it but the extra frames where done by the youtuber using an AI.

 

 

36 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

don't think Avatar playing or not playing in China will change much in the grand scheme of things

 

it would just suck for the poor Chinese Avatar fans who waited 13 years to see the sequel on the big screen like everyone else

 

 

Yeah the Chinese fans get screwed over the most here. It's actually really sad. For us all it means if the Worldwide number is lower, which sucks. But imagine not being able to watch Avatar 2....

 

4 minutes ago, AN9815 said:

The teaser is really beautiful and people are intrigued by it but I don't think there'll be a huge rush factor like Endgame, although it could end up outgrossing it. I really want to watch this in theatres just by how beautiful it looks. I think it is pretty safe to make sooooo much money and could come close or outgross the first one, the other sequels planned tho I am not so sure yet...

 

Right now I think:

OW: $224M

DOM: $870M

WW: $2,44B without China

 

Respectable Numbers. I'll just go 20-30% higher on all of it.

[Valonqar]

Go Big or Go Home. I'm going BIG:

 

3 billie w/o China. Screencap for gloat or laughs don't care. 

[Lothar]

1 hour ago, dignam said:

Trailer in 4k and 60fps 🤩

 

 

My poor pc can't play 4k in 60 frames 😂😂

[IronJimbo]

1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

Go Big or Go Home. I'm going BIG:

 

3 billie w/o China. Screencap for gloat or laughs don't care. 

put me in the screencap

[dudalb]

2 hours ago, Alexdube said:

don't think Avatar playing or not playing in China will change much in the grand scheme of things

 

it would just suck for the poor Chinese Avatar fans who waited 13 years to see the sequel on the big screen like everyone else

 

Well, Compared to the Russian fans, who have had to go  Cold Turkey on everything from the West...and I don't see that changing since VLad the Impaler seems intent on isolating the Russian people  from the West as much as possible...and I don't see Western movies retuning to Russian theaters as long as VLad is in power. But there is going to be a booming indusry in bootlegging  Western movies in Russia, though.

[AniNate]

3 hours ago, dignam said:

Trailer in 4k and 60fps 🤩

 

 

 

 

 

Maybe I'm a luddite but I'm still not sold on 60fps for fictional entertainment. A lower frame rate gives the picture more gravitas imo.  I still see it as the difference between General Hospital and ER.

[WittyUsername]

The teaser looks a bit off at 60 fps. 

[Ozymandias]

6 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

The teaser looks a bit off at 60 fps. 

 

the fast action makes your brain hurt

[NCsoft]

59 minutes ago, dudalb said:

Well, Compared to the Russian fans, who have had to go  Cold Turkey on everything from the West...and I don't see that changing since VLad the Impaler seems intent on isolating the Russian people  from the West as much as possible...and I don't see Western movies retuning to Russian theaters as long as VLad is in power. But there is going to be a booming indusry in bootlegging  Western movies in Russia, though.

I just realized a while ago that Avatar made like $116M in Russia (didn't think that was possible), that's another major lost revenue for A2 that will have to made up somewhere. 

[Reddroast]

Just now, NCsoft said:

I just realized a while ago that Avatar made like $116M in Russia (didn't think that was possible), that's another major lost revenue for A2 that will have to made up somewhere. 

And it's the highest grossing film in Ukraine as well. 

[Reddroast]

2 hours ago, Valonqar said:

Go Big or Go Home. I'm going BIG:

 

3 billie w/o China. Screencap for gloat or laughs don't care. 

I'm curious as to your reasoning 

[NCsoft]

1 minute ago, Reddroast said:

I'm curious as to your reasoning 

Pretty simple, we used to throw out $3.8 - 4B projections in the past few years based on the believe that a film as successful as the original in a 40% expanded global market would amount of at least that much, provided A2 can capture the same level of magic. Those predictions were always predicated on an assumed $800M to $1B in China, subtract that , leaves about $3B, so those predictions doesn't really change, just subtract China.

I think my optimistic scenario is in that range as well, granted it is on the more "optimistic" side.

If $2.55B Worldwide-China can be done in 2009, $3B Worldwide-China-Russia is likely doable in 2022 (pandemic complicates things a little). China isn't the only market expanded, and certainly not the only market with ticket inflation or increase in premium format.

[Reddroast]

2 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

Pretty simple, we used to throw out $3.8 - 4B projections in the past few years based on the believe that a film as successful as the original in a 40% expanded global market would amount of at least that much, provided A2 can capture the same level of magic. Those predictions were always predicated on an assumed $800M to $1B in China, subtract that , leaves about $3B, so those predictions doesn't really change, just subtract China.

I think my optimistic scenario is in that range as well, granted it is on the more "optimistic" side.

If $2.55B Worldwide-China can be done in 2009, $3B Worldwide-China-Russia is likely doable in 2022 (pandemic complicates things a little). China isn't the only market expanded, and certainly not the only market with ticket inflation or increase in premium format.

That makes some sense. The pandemic throws a bigger monkey wrench into that for 2 reasons. One is that older audiences have not come back to multiplexes yet and to Corona viruses tend to flourish in the winter 

[YM!]

I mean yes pandemic recovery is slow but like five months ago in the heat of Omicron, No Way Home did a $800m+ domestic run and nearly $2B with many markets shuttered. If the film is big enough audiences will flock and I’m confident at the bare minimum A2 will top NWH WW. Hell even in the case of older audiences, Top Gun Maverick which skews far more older than Avatwo is tracking at a $100m+ opening so there’s really not much to be too concerned about.

Edited May 12, 2022 by YourMother

[IronJimbo]

1 hour ago, WittyUsername said:

The teaser looks a bit off at 60 fps. 

 

1 hour ago, Ozymandias said:

 

the fast action makes your brain hurt

 

yeah its fanmade, of course it looks off