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Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

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1 hour ago, danziger said:

A scifi movie has never won BP.

 

Because they failed Script nomination (save DUNC) which is a must for a Picture winner. Script is more important than Director. Also preferential ballot. Sci fi isn't everyone's cup of tea and Pref Ballot is designed to award the most agreeable choice, not some passion-fuelled outlier (which hurt DUNC). :sadfleck:

 

Re: presales. Thanks guys. Well, Avatar is gunning for legs. First movie's OW was laughable in comparison to that era's biggest OW's let alone this era's.

Edited by Valonqar
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4 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

wait, are they bad? I thought they were through the roof at least in China and India. 

 

@Ozymandias and Hobbit An Unexpected Journey. Movie's problems aside, Serkis was probably his best ever in Riddles in the Dark.

 

I think overall movie reception matters a lot when it comes to getting acting noms and The Hobbit was generally seen as messy and bloated.

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3 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

But isn't that you saying the movie isn't good enough if it can't stand on its feet in a 2D setting that we'll have post theatrical.... 

no absolutely not, it's the best film in 24 years in 2D.

 

It's just better in 3D

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21 minutes ago, AniNate said:

I will maintain I can see the last one doing it if it's become such an unignorable phenomenon at that point that the academy deems it worthy of a ceremony devoted to showering it with recognition, but I don't see any middle chapters doing it

if it manages nominations for all 5 than 5th might win ROTK style.

 

But before that happens, we need to see whether DUNC II can pull it off. 

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2 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

But isn't that you saying the movie isn't good enough if it can't stand on its feet in a 2D setting that we'll have post theatrical.... 

First Avatar can fully stand on its feet in a 2D. Yet seeing it at last re-release in IMAX 3D is just way fuller experience. 3d version is main version the way it was natively shoot, 2D is acceptable but stripped one. 

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12 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

But isn't that you saying the movie isn't good enough if it can't stand on its feet in a 2D setting that we'll have post theatrical.... 

idk how you read it like that. Someone considering Imax 3d/Dolby 3d enough of a worthwhile improvement in experience that they suggest you wait 4 more days doesnt remotely mean that they think 2d wont be a great experience on its own . Or that 3d is what would make a mediocre movie / visual experience into a great one

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1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

But before that happens, we need to see whether DUNC II can pull it off. 

 

Dune Part 2 might have an advantage in best picture mostly due the prestige status of the source material, kind of like LOTR in a way, rather than something like Avatar. Though while Dune won all the technical awards, it never got even a best director nomination (still bizarre to think about), which suggest that Dune Part 1 was further away from best picture than Avatar was in 2010 (arguable top 2). Really am curious to see how Dune Part 2 does.

The closest a Sci-fi ever got to best picture win was most definitely Gravity, but then many don't consider that Sci-fi.

 

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3 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

 

Dune Part 2 might have an advantage in best picture mostly due the prestige status of the source material, kind of like LOTR in a way, rather than something like Avatar. Though while Dune won all the technical awards, it never got even a best director nomination (still bizarre to think about), which suggest that Dune Part 1 was further away from best picture than Avatar was in 2010 (arguable top 2). Really am curious to see how Dune Part 2 does.

The closest a Sci-fi ever got to best picture win was most definitely Gravity, but then many don't consider that Sci-fi.

 

Oh god, I remember the Gravity isn't Sci Fi furor in here, bloody nightmare

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I am beyond trying to predict OS these days (except it feels like it has WW record in the bag), but you can put me down for $1b+ DOM. Especially if it comes anywhere near 200 OW. Good lord, this may blow every DOM gross to smithereens if that happens… there’s no way a Cameron vehicle meant to thrive on WOM doesn’t have a crazy multi no matter what.
 

I think TGM’s multi is a doable expectation based on early reactions honestly, so yeah 200 OW would just be nuts. Cameron delivering surely means the most exciting box office since… Cameron delivering. 
 

Let’s see where it lands on RT, but I also am not ruling out a BP win either if has such huge box office and critical success. This year is weak on the indie front and the Academy desperately need positive buzz. It would almost be handed to them on a silver plate, and not sure they can afford to say they’re not hungry this year. If the movie ends on any kind of “cliffhanger” note, that would be the one thing I could see ruining a real chance for a BP win. I don’t think they will ever award something like that no matter what. 

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1 hour ago, Ozymandias said:

 

The Oscars have lost a lot of cultural relevancy by in the last 15 years, but lol the only mo-cap performance to date that actually deserved any kind of awards consideration was Andy Serkis for Gollum in TTT & ROTK.  It didn't happen because at the time motion capture was very new in the industry and there was a big debate on whether the actor or the animators get more of the credit.  Thanos and Avatar have great animation, but nothing particularly stands out about any of those mo-cap performances(except Thanos in the context of the MCU since its their only memorable villain).

 

I didn't say any mo-cap performances should've been nominated. I was talking about Best Picture and never even mentioned acting categories. Actors vote for BP too, and the bias against mo-cap definitely hurts Avatar's chances overall. 

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