Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[danziger]

3 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

We'll know tomorrow for sure when critic reviews drop at noon EST, but so far, it feels to me like the most tempered reactions have come from CBM bloggers and YouTubers. Not outright pans, mind you, and not making a full generalization, I've just seen critics be more effusive in their praise (with a few derisions from Guardian and Telegraph)

 

Exactly what happened with the first Avatar. It's why I never thought TWOW could hit 90% on RT. But some of those bloggers have probably become professional critics now, so I don't expect Metacritic to hit the 80s again.

[Deep Wang]

Just think, after ALL THIS TIME, we are finally about to have our answers.  I'm honestly kind of more excited about that than I am see the movie 😅

[hw64]

31 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

But he's right, things are tightening up this past few days and while i do think M37 read of the data is overly pessimistic to use some of the lower predictions on tracking thread, the data is still suggesting some limitations on how high this can go and everyone agreed on that. 

 

From the lenghty runtime, the limitations of premium screens, the holidays right after the opening.... There's several reasons that could depressing the OW a bit.

 

Which is all absolutely fine, but just let people make up their own minds on the data available to them, rather than suggesting that they mold their predictions to someone else's interpretation/extrapolation of the data. That's the only part I take issue with.

[Maggie]

Just now, hw64 said:

 

Which is all absolutely fine, but just let people make up their own minds on the data available to them, rather than suggesting that they mold their predictions to someone else's interpretation/extrapolation of the data. That's the only part I take issue with.

I don't think @XXR Tulkun Rider means harm by suggesting everyone tamper the expectation. We don't wanna see people disappointed in the end

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

I've definitely been critical of some predictions, sure, perhaps even dismissively so on a couple of occasions over the past few days for which I'd apologise to those affected, but there's a big difference between being critical and essentially softly suggesting that everyone molds their predictions to a range that you've deemed to be appropriate.

 

Some humility is needed here. The tracking thread is incredible, but the data is still largely limited to Thursday previews, and it tells us very little about how backloaded the movie is going to be over its opening weekend or how heavy the walk-ups will be. If any movie is likely to behave unusually and break precedent, it is Avatar 2, so it's simply unwise to rely on the idea that Avatar 2 will behave within established parameters in terms of backloading/walk-ups.

 

Perhaps I could have worded things better in my post. People can predict whatever makes them happy but based on my own expertise, I think some of these predictors will end up disappointed and I'd like to curtail the doomsaying as much as possible.

 

I disagree though that it's unwise to rely on history of other films to predict the OW of Avatar 2. Avatar broke the mold because it was an unknown entity but even then its opening weekend wasn't something overly exceptional or unusual. Avatar 2 will have a great run with what I expect to be awesome legs but in the end there's only so many feasible variables for OW. 

 

[Derpity]

9 minutes ago, danziger said:

 

 

 

A+ video

[interiorgatordecorator]

5 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

I'd like to curtail the doomsaying as much as possible.

 

 

 

 

impossible as long as im here

[stuart360]

16 minutes ago, danziger said:

 

 

Some of the tweets in that video, what the hell is wrong with some people?

[stuart360]

14 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

Perhaps I could have worded things better in my post. People can predict whatever makes them happy but based on my own expertise, I think some of these predictors will end up disappointed and I'd like to curtail the doomsaying as much as possible.

 

I disagree though that it's unwise to rely on history of other films to predict the OW of Avatar 2. Avatar broke the mold because it was an unknown entity but even then its opening weekend wasn't something overly exceptional or unusual. Avatar 2 will have a great run with what I expect to be awesome legs but in the end there's only so many feasible variables for OW. 

 

Do you still think it will gross over 500mil by the end of New Years weekend?.

 

Imo it will as wom expands over launch week. I expect Christmas week to do gangbusters.

Edited December 13, 2022 by stuart360

[JustLurking]

16 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

Perhaps I could have worded things better in my post. People can predict whatever makes them happy but based on my own expertise, I think some of these predictors will end up disappointed and I'd like to curtail the doomsaying as much as possible.

 

I disagree though that it's unwise to rely on history of other films to predict the OW of Avatar 2. Avatar broke the mold because it was an unknown entity but even then its opening weekend wasn't something overly exceptional or unusual. Avatar 2 will have a great run with what I expect to be awesome legs but in the end there's only so many feasible variables for OW. 

 

How can A1 claiming the original film OW record (even despite some deflation from the weather) not be exceptional/unusual? That doesn't make much sense to me.

 

Mind you, I don't really disagree about the overall point about using other films.

[ThomasNicole]

In defense of the bloggers, i don't think they have a bias against Avatar. Their reactions are pretty good overall. 

 

I feel that they're just more honest about this movie and other properties than with a SH movie. Avatar doesn't have a strong fanbase online, they can list what they like and what they dislike way more peacefully.

 

When it comes to SH movies they have to deal with a huge fanbase that seems to have problems to accept that everything have problems, they like high praise for everything (the fact that 75% for DS2 was seen like a disaster is a recent proof). So because of that and since their work depends of likes, these people ended up being way more careful with their words when it's time to react to SH movies. 

 

This is honestly the best thing i can make up to justify how Thor 4 reactions was so good and reviews ended up being average at best.

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, stuart360 said:

Dop you still think it will gross over 500mil by the end of New Years weekend?.

 

Imo it will as wom expands over launch week. I expect Christmas week to do gangbusters.

 

Not sure on that one yet. My gut tells me it will be very close. When I did some math earlier, it came out to $484M but over the course of 17 days that could easily change. WOM will tell the tale.  

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

How can A1 claiming the original film OW record (even despite some deflation from the weather) not be exceptional/unusual? That doesn't make much sense to me.

 

 

Because that's just kind of a made up statistic to me. In the end, it was the 26th biggest opener at the time and that's not exceptional/unusual 🤷‍♂️

[JustLurking]

Just now, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

Because that's just kind of a made up statistic to me. In the end, it was the 26th biggest opener at the time and that's not exceptional/unusual 🤷‍♂️

Not really a fan of removing all context from an opening tbh.

[stuart360]

7 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

Not sure on that one yet. My gut tells me it will be very close. When I did some math earlier, it came out to $484M but over the course of 17 days that could easily change. WOM will tell the tale.  

The thing for me is the 3 weekends should be around the 350mil range, meaning we would need 150 mil from 8 week days, with 4 of those days being holiday days. It could easily gross 200mil from those 8 weekdays if you really think about it.

 

I see something like -

 

160mil OW (i'm still prediciting 181mil, but being conservative for this question)

110mil Christmas weekend

90mil New Years weekend (feel this could even hit 100mil)

 

Thats 360mil from the weekends.

 

70-80mil from the launch week weekdays.

100-120mil from Christmas week weekdays.

 

530-560mil total

 

Of course i'm basing these numbers on amazing WOM, and the film dragging the young and old to the cienema, like the orig film did.

 

Edited December 13, 2022 by stuart360

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, stuart360 said:

The thing for me is the 3 weekends should be around the 350mil range, meaning we would need 150 mil from 8 week days, with 4 of those days being holiday days. It could easily gross 200mil from those 8 weekdays if you really thing about it.

 

I see something like -

 

160mil OW (i'm still prediciting 181mil, but being conservative for this question)

110mil Christmas weekend

90mil New Years weekend (feel this could even hit 100mil)

 

Thats 360mil from the weekends.

 

70-80mil from the launch week weekdays.

100-120mil from Christmas week weekdays.

 

530-560mil total

 

Of course i'm basing these numbers on amazing WOM, and the film dragging the young and old to the cienema, like the orig film did.

 

 

It would certainly be amazing if it hit those numbers, especially that 2nd WE number. 

[dudalb]

2 hours ago, tenken said:

I am really curious what the tomato-meter rating will be. I have seen a fair amount of reactions criticizing the story and characters. If I had to guess, I would say it lands between 70% and 85%.

Which means it will be like the first, incredible visuals, but lackluster story and charecters. Which lessens my interest in seeing it.

It takes more then eye candy to get me out to a theater nowdays.

Edited December 13, 2022 by dudalb

[jedijake]

SMH at people predicting $100 million for the second weekend with Christmas Eve right smack in the middle.

[LPLC]

18 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

The thing for me is the 3 weekends should be around the 350mil range, meaning we would need 150 mil from 8 week days, with 4 of those days being holiday days. It could easily gross 200mil from those 8 weekdays if you really think about it.

 

I see something like -

 

160mil OW (i'm still prediciting 181mil, but being conservative for this question)

110mil Christmas weekend

90mil New Years weekend (feel this could even hit 100mil)

 

Thats 360mil from the weekends.

 

70-80mil from the launch week weekdays.

100-120mil from Christmas week weekdays.

 

530-560mil total

 

Of course i'm basing these numbers on amazing WOM, and the film dragging the young and old to the cienema, like the orig film did.

 

NWH made $84M after a $260M weekend last year, why do you all expect a second weekend around 100M for A2 ?

I think something around $60M is more likely

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, LPLC said:

NWH made $84M after a $260M weekend last year, why do you all expect a second weekend around 100M for A2 ?

I think something around $60M is more likely

Because NWH is a frontloaded movie and Avatar isn't? 

 

I don't know about 100M, but it should be higher than NWH despite opening way lower