Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[marveldcfox]

I think 125-135 M OW in North America. 

Edited December 14, 2022 by marveldcfox

[wildphantom]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

 

Why don't you ask the people who predicted that it's going to be 3 billies, if they still believe it will. For me the answer is a resounding yes. Everything I've seen so far is expected.

 

The issue is that there was hype around the opening weekend due to projections from BOP and Deadline, now people are thinking it will come in lower than this. So they're conflating that to the total gross of the movie.

WHICH, if you ask anyone predicting a massive success, will tell you this movies all about legs...

 

It’s cool that those believe it. Yet there’s nothing out there that makes me believe it yet.  No statistics or advance ticket sales that would suggest it.  
I’ll wait for a pattern in a few weeks. The first one was lightning in a bottle, and I don’t think 3 billion is remotely realistic for this.  Especially in the current climate.
 

But….I’m not saying it can’t happen either. We’ll see Jim. I’m rooting for it to be huge. 

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, wildphantom said:

Sure, but TGM was a phenomenon. Maybe the greatest blockbuster in a decade or more.  If TWOW is in that ballpark or beyond in terms of performance, it’s done great. 

Don't get me wrong, TGM is a good film, but I really don't think it's anywhere near as good as something like Mad Max.

[WittyUsername]

8 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

Meltdowns are starting. Lol. 
 

Two months ago NOBODY was expecting this to be the biggest film of all time. Nobody. 

 

In the summer when TGM was destroying everything nobody was saying that Avatar would categorically top it. 
 

So if (and I think it will) Avatar tops TGM worldwide, well what’s the problem? If it ends up in the top four or five biggest films of all time, what is the problem!?! It’ll be incredible and WAY beyond what anybody was expecting earlier this year. Some of you have just hyped yourselves beyond reality - AGAIN. 

Even back in the Summer, there were already a couple of clubs here that set some pretty lofty expectations for this movie. I personally never bought into the idea that this would top TFA as the number one film domestically, but I do think it’ll be rather underwhelming if it comes in at under TGM.  

[theghostofmarv]

32 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

reception isnt there for 3 billion, would be surprised by 2.5 billion at this point, think it'll crawl over 2 billion, satisfying no one in the process, neither the haters or the fans will know how to feel about that

 

James Cameron failed us

 

I've been lurking on this site for months but I had to create an account just to say that you are absolutely exhausting

[hw64]

11 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

yep. And they were mostly nowhere to be seen during the summer season and earlier. They got excited at tracking being $140 million plus a couple of weeks ago, and then turned it into - ‘it’s going to make $3 billion!!!’  No. That was never any kind of certainty. If it made that much it would stun the entire industry around the world. 

 

This is complete fiction. The $3b predictions predate the opening weekend projections by literal years, and I saw absolutely nobody jumping on the $3b bandwagon just because of the projections. And everyone's been around long before the summer — the regular posters have been here for 5+ years. Everything in your post is completely false.

Edited December 14, 2022 by hw64

[wildphantom]

Just now, JustLurking said:

Don't get me wrong, TGM is a good film, but I really don't think it's anywhere near as good as something like Mad Max.

I do. And I LOVED Fury Road. 
 

Both of them are right up there with the greatest sequels ever made. Maverick was total throwback to blockbusters of yore thought gone forever. 
 

I’m not on any team though as far as how much TWOW does or doesn’t make. I hope it does great but I also won’t ever see a billion and a half at the box office as disappointing.  

[Cap]

4 minutes ago, theghostofmarv said:

I've been lurking on this site for months but I had to create an account just to say that you are absolutely exhausting

So as Chief Admin, let me welcome this this site. And tell you that we try to refrain from personal attacks and insults! Thank you and happy posting!

[wildphantom]

2 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

This is complete fiction. The $3b predictions predate the opening weekend projections by literal years, and I saw absolutely nobody predicting $3b just because of some high domestic opening weekend projections. And everyone's been around long before the summer — the regular posters have been here for 5+ years. There's literally nothing in your post that's true.

it was a small number of people, and they definitely haven’t been around crowing with confidence all year long. 
 

I don’t see where the sudden confidence has come from. 
 

That said, I wish them well and hope it does hit their ludicrous expectations. I really do. For most on here, I think it’ll top even their highest expectations if they were asked even a couple of months ago what it might make worldwide. 

[tenken]

18 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

nah

the problem here is the movie itself

all of our super high predictions expected better wom than this

 

I have yet to see ATWOW, but I agree with you. My expectation was that ATWOW would be a masterpiece sequel which is why I made some big box-office predictions. Never did I think this movie could be a disappointment quality-wise considering JC has spent 7 years(3 on scripts) working on it. If JC cannot deliver a great movie with that much time, he is not as good a director as he used to be. I will watch the film on Thursday.

 

 

Edited December 14, 2022 by tenken

[Aristis]

Less than ten minutes 👀

[danziger]

3 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

 

It’s cool that those believe it. Yet there’s nothing out there that makes me believe it yet.  No statistics or advance ticket sales that would suggest it.  
I’ll wait for a pattern in a few weeks. The first one was lightning in a bottle, and I don’t think 3 billion is remotely realistic for this.  Especially in the current climate.
 

But….I’m not saying it can’t happen either. We’ll see Jim. I’m rooting for it to be huge. 

 

I haven't followed box office in many years and haven't looked at presales or other relevant stats, so can't make any credible predictions, but I'm inclined to agree with you just because I've always felt Avatar was similar to SW, E.T., Jurassic Park in being a unique event that no sequel could even approach. It used to be that only original movies became #1 all-time box office hits, sequels were inherently too limiting in appeal due to the missing novelty factor. Of course Marvel changed that because of its  collective superhero power but Avatar doesn't have that, it would need Cameron somehow creating lightning in a bottle AGAIN. 

[eridani]

Domestic 700 x 0.55 = 385 rentals

China 400 x 0.25 = 100 rentals

Rest of the world 1500 x 0.45= 675 rentals.

Total 1160 million in theater rentals

Expenses:

400 (budget+studio overhead)

300 (marketing and distribution)

150 (shares and residuals)

 

Total: 850

 

Bottom line: there is no way A2 doesnt overshoot the breakeven point by a few hundred million from theater rentals alone.

 

With high 9 figure sum more in profits from HE, streaming, tv, merch etc. To come later. (Close to a billion) all on relatively small added costs.

 

Disney would have to be insane not to greenlight avatars 4 and 5.

Edited December 14, 2022 by eridani

[ThomasNicole]

I saw the recent comments and some meltdowns about lack of quality and how the movie is doomed and think the movie suddenly drop hard on RT or something, but no.... still the exact same thing that Avatar 1 

 

Never change BOT

[M37]

6 minutes ago, danziger said:

I've always felt Avatar was similar to SW, E.T., Jurassic Park in being a unique event that no sequel could even approach.

I can make a reasonable argument that Avatar was the spiritual sequel to E.T.,in terms of being a nostalgic return to being wowed by the theatrical experience. The sequels are now having to sink or swim on being a more traditional franchise, with the added hook of PLF experience 

[Nero]

32 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

 Two months ago NOBODY was expecting this to be the biggest film of all time. Nobody.

You are basically ignoring the existence of Jimbo and pals :')

[stuart360]

19 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

it was a small number of people, and they definitely haven’t been around crowing with confidence all year long. 
 

I don’t see where the sudden confidence has come from. 
 

That said, I wish them well and hope it does hit their ludicrous expectations. I really do. For most on here, I think it’ll top even their highest expectations if they were asked even a couple of months ago what it might make worldwide. 

No offence to anyone but a lot of people are coming into this thread for the first time in months (if ever), spouting a lot of nonsense and sayign stuff like you are basically saying that people in here only started with the huge predicitions when tracking startd. Well thats completely false.

I came back to the site 2 or 3 months ago and instantly put down my 750-800mil US/2.5Bill WW prediction. It was at that time i also said i could see it goin over 3bil.

Lots of otherAVATAR fans were already predicing huge numbers, and have been for literally years.

So yeah lets not pretend that some of us are easily influenced and we only started with the huge predicitons when tracking started.

Some of us are not easily swayed or influenced, and if anything its the none fans doing vast predicition changes as new info comes.

Edited December 14, 2022 by stuart360

[hw64]

22 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

it was a small number of people, and they definitely haven’t been around crowing with confidence all year long.

 

Yes they have. Trust me, as someone who's been lurking and posting in this thread for years, nobody new has come out of the woodwork to jump on the perceived bandwagon over the past months or so. They have been here for years, and they've been incredibly consistent in their predictions for years. Nobody has kneejerked their predictions massively upwards because of some domestic opening weekend projections.

 

I don't know where this is coming from because outside of some important milestones like teasers and trailers, I can't remember you really posting in this thread at all over the past year or so.

Edited December 14, 2022 by hw64

[wildphantom]

4 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

No offence to anyone but a lot of people are coming into this thread for the first time in months (if ever), spouting a lot of nonsense and sayign stuff like you are basically saying that people in here only started with the huge predicitions when tracking startd. Well thats completely false.

I came back to the site 2 or 3 months ago and instantly put down my 750-800mil US/2.5Bill WW prediction. It was at that time i also said i could see it goin over 3bil.

Lots of otherAVATAR fans were already predicing huge numbers, and have been for literally years.

So yeah lets not pretend that some of us are easily influenced and we only started with the huge predicitons when tracking started.

Some of us are not easily swayed or influenced, and if anything its the none fans doing vast predicition changes as new info comes.

oh I’m not saying people haven’t predicted big numbers at all. I’m merely saying that this ‘disappointment’ consensus that can take over (and indeed is being trolled by others) will not be shared by the vast majority of frequent forum dwellers. 
 

I don’t think three billion predictions are realistic personally, but I’m not knocking those that have predicted it whatsoever. 
 

I’m on the side of you guys. Just trying to reassure you that there will be no ‘disappointment’ consensus from the majority of us if this makes under $1.5 billion. 

[JustLurking]

Boy this thread is imploding.

 

y'all need to chill. yes the movie is coming below expectations in many ways but there are more important things in life.

 

the film will still make a lot of money, probably get its sequels and whatnot. just not as much as it seemed just a few weeks ago.

 

Jesus christ, and I thought I was too involved.