Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Sheldon Cr]

Brother Porthos... . What are your OW 2 predictions Domestic and OS?

 

 

" I SEE YOU!"  😄

[cdsacken]

2 hours ago, Sheldon Cr said:

With 2.1-2.4B WW range  Likely and  2.6-3B questionable...I Feel more will be Made indeed Brother Dan 😉

 

Then we got the 94 Audience Scores of RT, and Polls from AOL, The Wrap, HR all saying 5 out 5 and a must see recommendations. . Repeat Returns are looking very very good..  India is huge for Avatar, and SK continues to pickup... I need Austraila, and UK Numbers.. Anyone seen London, Germany, Italy so Far.

435M-450M WW start.... Looking good versus Avatar 1.  Where all those under TGM  Domestic and WW and no shot at  NWH WW  folks went??  I think they got lost in the Pandora Forrests  folks.

 

THIS......THIS YOUR BOX OFFICE TO TAKE JAKE!" " This is Your Avatar!"

 

 

"LETS GET IT DONE!" 

 

Sub 2 billion is a guarantee at this point. Estimates are lowering every day. 

[AJG]

2 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

 

Sub 2 billion is a guarantee at this point. Estimates are lowering every day. 

I’m saying $800m-$1.1bn. 
 

It’s time to get real, friends.

[danziger]

38 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:

Dont let the naysayers get to you .. We need a 750-800M domestic and at least 1.2B-1.3B OS.. Your not giving up on 2B or beating Titanic WW are you  ??? Hang in there Brother  Dan :)..  Remember NO Alvin, No Sherlock and others eating at the legs this time. So Though China and Japan are not the big ones this time.. Other places like India, and Germany, Italy, Austraila, SK, etc can still super perform. And Last Avatar started at 77M OW domestic and kept going.  We dont need a 10X multiplier this time around

 

 

Stand Fast  Brother Dan!!

 THIS IS STILL OUR LAND!!! 

 

Any Predictions for domestic and OS your putting out there?

 

 

Love the optimism! Nope I've never made any predictions, said I'd just be happy with whatever it takes to get all the sequels. Admittedly OW was disappointing but I believe we're on track to get Avatar 4 & 5.

 

Forbes reports that OW would've been far better without these huge mitigating factors:

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhughes/2022/12/18/avatar-the-way-of-water-has-big-435-million-worldwide-holiday-debut/

Quote

 

it’s clear Avatar: The Way of Water fell short of predictions, but it’s pointless to ignore the glaring fact most of the shortfall from the $500+ million estimates is due to China’s box office failing to live up to expectations because their reopening has led to a dangerous tide of Covid infections that threaten to overload health care facilities and endanger the rest of the world with an even worsening surge through winter, including potential for even more variants due to the sheer scale of spread across the Middle Kingdom.

 

Besides China’s shortfall, however, there is also the fact domestic sales were overestimated into the range of $150-200 million (I’m personally particularly leery of Covid and inclined to point to it as a regular factor in box office outcomes, but even I underestimated how bad the surge would be at this point), which likewise failed to properly adjust for Covid pandemic surges in North America that are coinciding with abnormally high and early flu spread and an RSV epidemic that is overloading hospitals with mostly young patients.

 

Without China’s pandemic catastrophe or without the suppressed audience turnout due in part to rising trifecta of Covid-flu-RSV infections and hospitalizations, Avatar: The Way of Water would’ve easily cleared $500 million. Which isn’t to say we can ignore the lower opening outcome, but rather that it’s just silly to pretend the results aren’t largely due simply to a particularly bad and unexpected Covid situation.

 

 

So contrary to a lot of claims, this goes way beyond China. In the U.S. we still have nearly 3,000 covid deaths per week and we're in a Tripledemic with respiratory illnesses that "rival some of the worst cold and flu seasons on record."

 

[cdsacken]

3 minutes ago, AJG said:

I’m saying $800m-$1.1bn. 
 

It’s time to get real, friends.

 

sweet christmas WW that seems aggressive.  Surely it will have good legs.

 

However I would bet it's much closer to 1.2B than it is 2.2B. 

[AJG]

18 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

 

sweet christmas WW that seems aggressive.  Surely it will have good legs.

 

However I would bet it's much closer to 1.2B than it is 2.2B. 

I saw the movie. I really don’t know what’s in this sequel that’s going to convince a generation of people under the age of 21 to go out and see it. Anything over $1.1bn would shock me.

Edited December 19, 2022 by AJG

[XXR vs XXR]

17 minutes ago, AJG said:

Anything over $1.1bn would shock me.

 

You're easy to shock then. That would barely be 2.5x OW during the holidays. Essentially impossible. 

[WittyUsername]

The doomposting has already gotten exhausting. 

Edited December 19, 2022 by WittyUsername

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, Sheldon Cr said:

Brother Porthos... . What are your OW 2 predictions Domestic and OS?

 

 

" I SEE YOU!"  😄

 

 

(not my area of expertise at all )

[Ozymandias]

lol

 

 

[JustLurking]

1 hour ago, AJG said:

I’m saying $800m-$1.1bn. 
 

It’s time to get real, friends.

Getting real is expecting the worst holiday multiplier of all time as your high range? Good to know.

[AJG]

6 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Getting real is expecting the worst holiday multiplier of all time as your high range? Good to know.

Laugh now.
 

Next week you’ll see

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, AJG said:

Laugh now.
 

Next week you’ll see

Okay.

[TigerPaw]

Avatar was not the juggernault that everyone thought it would be.

 

Not sure whether WB regrets moving Shazam 2 to March 2023. March 2023 is crazily packed..

[GipJo]

2 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Avatar was not the juggernault that everyone thought it would be.

 

Not sure whether WB regrets moving Shazam 2 to March 2023. March 2023 is crazily packed..

They should move those DC films up and be done with them now that they don't mean anything anymore. 

[cdsacken]

25 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

The doomposting has already gotten exhausting. 

then 1000 pages of circle jerking on 3b was exhausting too

[Alexdube]

21 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

lol

 

 

 

my man

[Macleod]

6 minutes ago, GipJo said:

They should move those DC films up and be done with them now that they don't mean anything anymore. 

 

This repetitive statement is equally as tiresome as the "doomposting" about AVATAR.  Give it some time.  For BOTH topics.  Movies are made to be seen, regardless of precious "cinematic universe" concerns and regardless of record-breaking opening weekend.  As Cameron states, "Weekend #3 is the real one to pay attention to." 

[WittyUsername]

8 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

then 1000 pages of circle jerking on 3b was exhausting too

Sure, but it’s weird that some people are already going far in the opposite direction. 

[Nero]

3 hours ago, danziger said:

 

Love the optimism! Nope I've never made any predictions, said I'd just be happy with whatever it takes to get all the sequels. Admittedly OW was disappointing but I believe we're on track to get Avatar 4 & 5.

 

Forbes reports that OW would've been far better without these huge mitigating factors:

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhughes/2022/12/18/avatar-the-way-of-water-has-big-435-million-worldwide-holiday-debut/

 

So contrary to a lot of claims, this goes way beyond China. In the U.S. we still have nearly 3,000 covid deaths per week and we're in a Tripledemic with respiratory illnesses that "rival some of the worst cold and flu seasons on record."

 

NWH opened to $260M when omicron was in peak. I agree issue with China but blaming lower OW to covid issue in NA is ridiculous