Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[IronJimbo]

9 minutes ago, Noctis said:

Avatar will likely get banned in China.

 

based on what? the fact Disney is distributing?

[Noctis]

17 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

based on what? the fact Disney is distributing?

 

China won't allow a Western production to do gangbusters there anymore, especially with their relationship being so terrible with the US government. 

 

A shame since it would have easily done over $600m there.

[Issac Newton]

The case for and against AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER coming to China

 

After writing several posts exploring Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness‘ fate with the Chinese box office market, I thought that today I might turn my attention to what will likely be the biggest movie of the 2022 global box office— Avatar: The Way of Water (the tentative Chinese translation is 阿凡达：水之道). While seven months remain until audiences can embark on the next voyage to Pandora, with the release of the movie’s teaser trailer, I am incredibly excited for James Cameron’s next directorial venture and thought it might be interesting to take a look at some of the factors that might influence Way of Water‘s way to the People’s Republic.

 

Risk factors

 

To preface this section: as of right now, I am highly confident that Chinese authorities and movie theater operators fully expect to give Avatar: The Way of Water a release in the country. I’m listing these risk factors as evidence of fates other movies have faced.

 

1: Censorship

 

Since the pandemic, China’s censors have become pickier with the movies they let screen. Some of the rumored reasons for censorial judgment are eyebrow-raising; reportedly, Spider-Man: No Way Home failed to secure a Chinese release after Sony refused to either delete or minimize the Statue of Liberty from the movie. Disney’s blockbusters have been particularly hard-hit, with Black Widow, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Eternals, Turning Red, and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness all failing to secure Chinese release dates and Encanto only premiering in China after its Disney+ release ensured that high-quality pirated versions of the movie were readily available online.

 

As a Disney release, The Way of Water is starting at a handicap compared to movies from studios like Warner Bros. and Universal. Additionally, like its predecessor, The Way of Water will touch on themes like colonialism and environmentalism that anti-China Western commentators could leverage to criticize the Chinese government.

 

However, after the first movie broke the all-time Chinese box office record, Cameron and his production team are fully aware of China’s potential importance to The Way of Water‘s final box office tally. With a far-future off-planet setting, The Way of Water is unlikely to fall into the same political traps that ensnared movies like Multiverse of Madness. I would be… surprised if the script for the movie contains any content blatantly objectionable to the Chinese Communist party. Even more helpfully, the characters powering the villainous Resources Development Administration are coded as evil American capitalists. Additionally, The Way of Water‘s themes of environmental protection dovetail nicely with the Chinese government’s ongoing push towards sustainability.

 

Put simply, the odds of Avatar: The Way of Water running afoul of Beijing censors are vanishingly slim.

 

2: Dynamic zero-Covid

 

One of the biggest worries in China at the moment is the country’s strict dynamic zero-Covid policy which has throttled domestic travel and locked down cities from Xi’an to Shanghai, crushing the economy and shuttering movie theaters across the country. If dynamic zero-Covid continues to devastate economic activity in China until December, it could have a devastating impact on The Way of Water‘s box office potential. However, so far dynamic zero-Covid has not resulted in any foreign movies being denied permission to screen in China; from the perspective of whether or not The Way of Water will play in China, dynamic zero-Covid is a non-issue.

 

3: Protectionism

 

Arguably The Way of Water‘s biggest worry is the Chinese government’s protectionist stance towards the Chinese box office market where authorities use methods like controlling the number of foreign releases and manipulating release dates to favor domestic movies over foreign productions. Cameron’s last two movies shattered every Chinese box office record there was to shatter and completely re-drew expectations for what a movie can make in the country. In other words, it’s wise not to bet against him. Given how drastically theaters have expanded and multiplied since the original Avatar‘s $206 million haul in early 2010, The Way of Water is a potential billion-dollar contender in China.

 

This might be a problem.

 

Since Transformers: Age of Extinction in 2014, no Hollywood movie has topped the yearly Chinese box office standings. The current highest-grossing movie in China for 2022 is patriotic war epic The Battle at Lake Changjin II with ¥4.06 billion (approximately $600 million at current exchange rates), a figure that The Way of Water easily has the potential to surpass. As much as Chinese theaters might appreciate the potential revenue from a return trip to Pandora, The Way of Water‘s enormous box office potential could work against it as Beijing may feel that letting an American sci-fi epic dethrone a main melody blockbuster to take the 2022 box office crown is not the best political look.

 

However, China’s box office is faltering. When trawling through English-language Chinese state media recently, I came across a China Daily piece that described this year’s May Day box office, which fell more than 80% from 2021, as “better than expected.” For a publication dedicated to portraying China in the most positive, flattering terms… well, “damning” is a fair term. Unfortunately, I see little hope for a recovery in Chinese moviegoing in the near term. Although Jilin province is slowly returning to normal, the large city of Zhengzhou in Henan province is grappling with an outbreak of its own. Beijing is currently in a protracted quasi-lockdown. Shanghai’s lockdown continues apace. Ticketing app Maoyan shows that a mere 63% of Chinese movie theaters are currently open nationwide and those that are open are struggling with a lack of product. Even relatively soft March relases like Moonfall and The Batman are receiving extended theatrical play to give theaters product to show on their screens. Whether any major Chinese production will risk playing in theaters in the current market is a massive unknown.

 

And all this while the United States continues its path towards economic and, more pertinently for the focus of this particular blog, box office normalcy, as evidenced by Doctor Strange‘s mighty $187 million opening weekend. Although the slate of summer releases is a bit thin in the States with notable dead periods in mid-May and August, with likely mega-hits like Top Gun Maverick and Jurassic World Dominion on the horizon, it remains incredibly likely that the US/Canada will overtake China’s box office haul to regain its slot as the world’s largest box office territory in the coming weeks, as discussed in my post analyzing China’s April 2022 box office. With the strong possibility of continued market softness due to unpredictable, rolling lockdowns caused by the confluence of massively transmissible Omicron variants, strict implementation of the dynamic zero-Covid policy, and increased political sensitivity due to the upcoming 20th National Conference of the Chinese Communist Party, I expect China’s box office to only continue fading in comparison to the US/Canada.

 

If Avatar: The Way of Water can become a massive box office hit, revitalize confidence in Chinese movie theaters, and re-cement China as a box office powerhouse to be reckoned with, well… that might just be worth ceding the top spot at the Chinese box office to James Cameron for a year.

 

Plus…

 

 

Shortly after Avatar‘s Chinese rerelease last year, I took a trip to Zhangjiajie National Park in Hunan Province, where I couldn’t resist this photo op of three IMAX tickets for Avatar against the backdrop of the mountains that inspired the landscapes of Pandora. Yes, I spent a lot of money to see Avatar in IMAX last year.

 

Other factors that could contribute to Avatar: The Way of Water receiving a Chinese release date are the movie’s potential contribution to Chinese tourism. The teaser trailer has already confirmed that the movie will feature the Hallelujah Mountains, which were modeled off of the real-life mountains of Zhangjiajie in China’s southern Hunan province. When I visited Zhangjiajie last year, Avatar images were omnipresent; a successful sequel could boost domestic travel to the region and, when China’s borders eventually reopen, boost international travel to China.

 

Another potential boon for Chinese tourism is the potential for Shanghai Disneyland to construct a themed land based on Avatar. The original land at Disney’s Animal Kingdom in Orlando has been successful; an Avatar land located in the same country as the mountains that inspired the landscapes of the movie could generate significant revenue if built (reportedly, Shanghai Disney Resort has been waiting to see how the second movie is received before committing to the construction of the land).

 

Finally, with the original Avatar receiving a post-pandemic re-release, the optics of the Chinese government blocking the release of The Way of Water would be bizarre.

 

But Will Way of Water Bring in the RMB?

 

Yes.

 

Early indications show that The Way of Water is trending in the right direction to be a hit. Avatar brought in over $50 million in its 2021 Chinese rerelease despite the rerelease being announced mere days before the first screenings; more encouragingly, Avatar showed impressive box office stamina throughout its rerelease, which is notable in a market that trends heavily towards frontloading. Beyond the first film, Chinese audience interest in Pandora is very real. On ticketing app Maoyan, the Avatar sequel sports a want-to-see index of around 440,000 with seven months to go before release. Put simply, that number is stupidly ridiculous. The Way of Water ranks second among all upcoming 2022 releases, only behind star-driven comedy 超能一家人 (roughly translated, Superpowered Family), which generated strong interest in advance of its original Spring Festival 2022 release date before being delayed last-second. A more fair comparison is January 2023’s The Wandering Earth 2, the sequel to Chinese sci-fi megahit The Wandering Earth, which currently has a mere 16,400 want-to-see index. Admittedly, the want-to-see index is imperfect at best. However, The Way of Water‘s numbers are strong enough to indicate that the movie should open well. With the strength of Cameron’s visual storytelling and central themes like family and environmentalism that tend to play very well in China, The Way of Water has the raw ingredients to generate strong word of mouth, which has the potential to translate even a merely solid opening to an extraordinary final gross.

 

It is still far too early to make concrete predictions for Avatar 2‘s China gross; at a rough estimate, I’d argue that a realistic low end for the movie is about ¥3 billion RMB (~$450 million US). On the high end… the sky’s the limit. Titanic and Avatar wildly surpassed unrealistic expectations for what a movie could make in China at the time. I don’t expect The Way of Water to shatter records in quite as dramatic fashion, but given a favorable release date, ¥6 billion RMB and a new Chinese record is not out of the question; even ¥7 billion and the first-ever $1 billion-plus single-territory gross is not unthinkable.

 

Final Thoughts

 

Ticketing app Maoyan added a page for the new Avatar trailer (screenshot taken May 10), clearly indicating an expctation that the movie will receive approval to screen in the Middle Kingdom.

 

As of right now, Avatar: The Way of Water will release in China. While things can change between now and December, so far all signs are positive. Avatar is beloved in China, Cameron has shown himself to be politically savvy, and the Chinese box office will likely need a savior by the end of the year.

 

(Via @porginchina)

 

https://middlekingdomboxoffice.wordpress.com/2022/05/13/will-avatar-2-release-in-china/

[IronJimbo]

 

incredible post

[p a p i]

Can't wait for this visual masterpiece! 

[Ozymandias]

7 hours ago, Noctis said:

Avatar will likely get banned in China.

 

thank you dear leader Xi for doing the needful

[NCsoft]

16 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

 

thank you dear leader Xi for doing the needful

Somehow I have a feeling watching Avatar TWOW in a theatre is one of the things Xi Jinping is really looking forward to later this year...

Edited July 13, 2022 by NCsoft

[WittyUsername]

China seems to love Avatar and James Cameron. Maybe the CCP will make an exception for him. 

[Deep Wang]

Maybe it's just me, but if Avatar became the one exception to Hollywood releases, that would make it even worse imo?  

 

At that point, everyone should tell them to fuck off.  If you can't have our Minions, you can't have our Na'vi, or something.

[Issac Newton]

In Japan, Avatar made ¥15.60B / $188.7M back in 2009. In current E.R., it will be $113.7M.

 

Loss in E.R. ~ $75M

 

Is it possible to pull out E.R. loss from other parts of the world (esp. Europe)? I just want to see how much can South America &South East Asia + New Middle East Market of Saudi Arabia help in recovering those loss in E.R...

[Sophia Jane]

16 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

In Japan, Avatar made ¥15.60B / $188.7M back in 2009. In current E.R., it will be $113.7M.

 

Loss in E.R. ~ $75M

 

Is it possible to pull out E.R. loss from other parts of the world (esp. Europe)? I just want to see how much can South America &South East Asia + New Middle East Market of Saudi Arabia help in recovering those loss in E.R...

Don't even need another region,China can crush all disadvantage.

Edited July 13, 2022 by Bruce

[Issac Newton]

Sorry wrong quote

Edited July 15, 2022 by Issac Newton

[Sheldon Cr]

On 7/13/2022 at 6:17 AM, IronJimbo said:

 

incredible post

 

On 7/13/2022 at 12:37 PM, WittyUsername said:

China seems to love Avatar and James Cameron. Maybe the CCP will make an exception for him. 

I agree and wonderful post on why Avatar 2 the juggernaut  may flourish in China all.

 

 

--- One thing I know is where ever we go this family is our fortress!!

NEWS Flash: Cameron's Avatar 2 has  surpassed the 1.2 billion domestic mark and shows no.signs of slowing down.  My goodness!! 😳😳🔥⚔

Edited July 18, 2022 by Sheldon Cr

[Deuce66]

On 7/11/2022 at 3:33 PM, IronJimbo said:

I always 'joke' that Avatar 2 will be what regular tent-pole blockbusters will look like in 2035.

 

The remastered rerelease is going to be interesting in september, I wonder what improvements they're going to do. It's going to be 4k no doubt, but I wonder if they'll use the upgraded render systems and tech from Avatar 2.

 

Maybe even the HFR as a test? Upgraded 3D?

 

I think HFR as a test run would be really smart, though the live action shots probably were shot in 24fps

 

 

BURBANK, Calif., July 19, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Pixelworks, Inc. (NASDAQ: PXLW), the developer of the award-winning TrueCut Motion™ platform, today announced that it is working with James Cameron's Lightstorm Entertainment on multiple motion picture titles.

"We're bringing AVATAR and TITANIC back to the big screen, looking better in every way," said James Cameron. "We will be presenting both films in 4K with high dynamic range visuals and have been working with Pixelworks' TrueCut Motion platform to remaster the films in high frame rate, while keeping the cinematic look of the original."

TrueCut Motion technology provides filmmakers with a visual palette of cinematic motion looks that goes beyond anything previously possible. While motion pictures have seen tremendous improvements in picture performance, with higher resolution, higher dynamic range and more colors, the motion look has remained unchanged for close to a hundred years. TrueCut Motion technology allows filmmakers to dial in the motion, with any source frame rate, shot by shot, in post-production. The TrueCut Motion platform then ensures that these creative choices are delivered consistently across every screen, whether in the theater or the home.

"Lightstorm is once again extending the boundaries of the cinematic experience, and we are ecstatic to be a part of that," said Richard Miller, GM of TrueCut at Pixelworks. "After experiencing these remastered versions of AVATAR and TITANIC, we believe more and more filmmakers will be excited to take advantage of motion grading with TrueCut Motion technology."

[Deuce66]

Avatar - The High Ground Part III 

 

Jake Sully’s fears have come crashing to Pandora, guns blazing. The Sky People are planet-side, and taking Hell’s Gate by storm.

 

Jake and Neytiri’s children are still on base, surrounded and outgunned. Years of advancement on Earth means they’ll be bringing more firepower than Jake could anticipate. Unable to fully rely on his intel, Jake will have to improvise and risk it all to protect his family, his people, and their home. The battle is underway and every Na’vi is in danger.
 
Experience the epic finale of James Cameron’s original story “The High Ground” in this graphic novel adaptation written by award-winning author Sherri L. Smith (The Toymaker’s Apprentice, Orleans) and illustrated by Agustin Padilla (Suicide Squad, Transformers, Borderlands, Predator: Hunters II) and Miguel Angel Ruiz (The Passing, Crossed: Badlands). The exciting conclusion to Avatar: The High Ground leads you directly into the opening of the long-awaited film sequel Avatar 2!

 

[Deep Wang]

 

 

[Eric the Fall Guy]

7 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

 

I'm happy the game is respecting the source material by doing this.

[WittyUsername]

27 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

 

That actually sounds like a good thing. Not only does it give them more time to work on it, but it also means that interest in the game will potentially be higher, since it’s now coming out after TWoW. 

[Reddroast]

20 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

That actually sounds like a good thing. Not only does it give them more time to work on it, but it also means that interest in the game will potentially be higher, since it’s now coming out after TWoW. 

Oh knowing ubisoft the game will have controversy about it being littered with microtransactions and crunch 

[IronJimbo]

On 7/11/2022 at 11:19 PM, IronJimbo said:

this is dynamic HFR, only certain shots which it looks good in will use it. Rest will be in 24fps

Also to add to this, the HFR they were using in LOTR hadn't been perfected yet.