Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[WeneedtotalkaboutKevin]

7 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

If Endgame doesn't beat Titanic then Jim is guaranteed the top 4 spots by 2022, then possibly the top 6 spots by 2025 if studio filmmaking can't keep up.

Endgame will not only beat Titanic but Avatar as well. 

[TimmyRiggins]

On 4/17/2019 at 3:19 PM, feasby007 said:

I think Endgame could potentially reach $2.5b by outperforming everywhere (475 China / 750 DOM / 1275 OS-C), I really struggle to see where that extra 270m will come from. 

Pretty much, 2.3 or 2.4 is the ceiling imo. 

[Panda]

5 hours ago, WeneedtotalkaboutKevin said:

Endgame will not only beat Titanic but Avatar as well. 

This thread will be nuts if that happens.

[Deuce66]

10 hours ago, WeneedtotalkaboutKevin said:

Endgame will not only beat Titanic but Avatar as well. 

A $739.6 Million variance is a lot to make up, where does Avengers have an advantage and where does Avatar have a huge lead.

 

Markets where Avengers Infinity War has already surpassed Avatar (variances above $8M)

 

                            AVATAR                      AVENGERS             VARIANCE
TOTAL            $2,787,965,087        $2,048,359,754      $739,605,333
FOREIGN       $2,027,457,462        $1,369,544,272       $657,913,190
                
CHINA           $204,129,854         $359,543,153          -$155,413,299
INDIA             $24,216,860           $43,594,456           -$19,377,596
INDONESIA   $6,053,656             $25,288,929           -$19,235,273
PHILIPINES   $5,881,594              $23,295,180           -$17,413,586
MEXICO        $44,229,043           $60,058,771           -$15,829,728
ARGENTINA  $1,851,813              $16,477,070            -$14,625,257
MALAYSIA     $7,706,512             $17,325,511              -$9,618,999
THAILAND    $8,414,866             $17,944,798            -$9,529,932
BRAZIL         $58,218,829           $66,684,469           -$8,465,640
TAIWAN        $13,634,452          $21,588,140             -$7,953,688
 

Markets where Avatar has a significant lead (variance over $10M)

 

SWITZERLAND         $15,743,017         $5,553,658           $10,189,359
TURKEY                      $17,564,479        $5,696,347            $11,868,132
NETHERLANDS        $23,686,268       $11,097,966           $12,588,302
ISRAEL                        $13,097,682                                            $13,097,682
SWEDEN                     $22,187,194        $8,074,716              $14,112,478
DENMARK                  $22,889,076      $6,853,155              $16,035,921
CZECH/REP               $23,825,863      $4,400,723             $19,425,140
POLAND                     $28,337,868       $7,367,423              $20,970,445
SOUTH KOREA         $111,345,404      $88,506,046         $22,839,358
UNITED KINGDOM   $150,025,197     $96,640,433         $53,384,764
AUSTRALIA                $105,779,507     $46,825,158         $58,954,349
ITALY                            $83,498,193       $22,837,545         $60,660,648
DOMESTIC                 $760,507,625      $678,815,482      $81,692,143
RUSSIA                        $117,103,251        $34,597,189         $82,506,062
SPAIN                           $109,992,746      $24,809,385       $85,183,361
GERMANY                   $162,333,962      $45,398,141        $116,935,821
FRANCE                       $175,615,305       $47,689,983        $127,925,322
JAPAN                          $171,990,531        $33,881,648       $138,108,883
 

Can they squeeze another $150 million out of China, make up the difference in Domestic $82M and score significant improvements elsewhere like Japan, France, Germany, Spain etc....that's a BIG ask, huge actually.

 

 

    

 

 

 

Edited April 19, 2019 by Deuce66
Fix foreign total

[Stewart]

3 minutes ago, Deuce66 said:

                                    AVATAR                AVENGERS             VARIANCE

SWITZERLAND         $15,743,017         $5,553,658           $10,189,359
TURKEY                      $17,564,479        $5,696,347            $11,868,132
NETHERLANDS        $23,686,268       $11,097,966           $12,588,302
ISRAEL                        $13,097,682                                            $13,097,682
SWEDEN                     $22,187,194        $8,074,716              $14,112,478
DENMARK                  $22,889,076      $6,853,155              $16,035,921
CZECH/REP               $23,825,863      $4,400,723             $19,425,140
POLAND                     $28,337,868       $7,367,423              $20,970,445
SOUTH KOREA         $111,345,404      $88,506,046         $22,839,358
UNITED KINGDOM   $150,025,197     $96,640,433         $53,384,764
AUSTRALIA                $105,779,507     $46,825,158         $58,954,349
ITALY                            $83,498,193       $22,837,545         $60,660,648
DOMESTIC                 $760,507,625      $678,815,482      $81,692,143
RUSSIA                        $117,103,251        $34,597,189         $82,506,062
SPAIN                           $109,992,746      $24,809,385       $85,183,361
GERMANY                   $162,333,962      $45,398,141        $116,935,821
FRANCE                       $175,615,305       $47,689,983        $127,925,322
JAPAN                          $171,990,531        $33,881,648       $138,108,883

 

 

    

 

 

 

The numbers in Black are the ones that always blow my mind. 

 

How the hell can Avatar have made that much??? I mean these markets are exactly why Avatar 2 is the only chance to beat Avatar. Of course the ER won't be as favourable, but you can't deny the interest and potential.

[Deuce66]

16 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

The numbers in Black are the ones that always blow my mind. 

 

How the hell can Avatar have made that much??? I mean these markets are exactly why Avatar 2 is the only chance to beat Avatar. Of course the ER won't be as favourable, but you can't deny the interest and potential.

 

This is why the idea of Endgame surpassing Avatar is bit of pipe dream. In order to make up that difference I figure they would need to do the following and add to Infinity's performance.

 

China: add $140M to $500M total

Domestic: add $85M to over $760M Avatar's #

A 25% gain in (India/Indonesia/Philipines/Mexico/Argentina/Malaysia/Thailand/Brazil/Taiwan/Chile/Singapore) this would add $103M

 

and here's the big ask, double their previous performance in (Japan/France/Germany/Spain/Russia/Italy/Australia/UK/South Korea/Poland/Czech/Denmark/Sweden/Netherlands/Turkey/Switzerland) add $490M 

 

while maintaining previous performance everywhere else this would push Endgame above Avatar - I can't see this happening at all.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[TimmyRiggins]

The performance of Avatar in Germany, Russia especially blows my mind, Germany is such a dead market these days, and Russia is usually not a leggy market at all. Damn, thanks for this. 

[IronJimbo]

I love the little burst of excitement capedwellers and sws loons get before their movie comes out.

 

"Avatar is toast!"

 

Yeah ok kid

[Deuce66]

12 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

I love the little burst of excitement capedwellers and sws loons get before their movie comes out.

 

"Avatar is toast!"

 

Yeah ok kid

 

Agreed, the math doesn't work it will probably beat Titanic but Avatar? it would need a box office miracle in multiple countries for that to happen. 

 

 

Edited April 19, 2019 by Deuce66

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, Deuce66 said:

Agreed, the math doesn't work it will probably beat Titanic but Avatar? it would need a box office miracle in multiple countries for that to happen.

Endgame will be more front loaded than Infinity War, it won't neccessarly make more.

 

Beating Titanic will still be difficult for it.

[Deuce66]

5 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Endgame will be more front loaded than Infinity War, it won't neccessarly make more.

 

Beating Titanic will still be difficult for it.

 

Endgame needs to improve by $139.1 million, I think that's a lock, China alone can push it there. 

 

[IronJimbo]

28 minutes ago, Deuce66 said:

 

Endgame needs to improve by $139.1 million, I think that's a lock, China alone can push it there. 

 

I agree it can do it, however a bigger opening weekend doesn't always equate to a bigger overall gross.

[Panda]

2 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

I love the little burst of excitement capedwellers and sws loons get before their movie comes out.

 

"Avatar is toast!"

 

Yeah ok kid

I remember reddit being 100% sure TFA would beat Avatar. Oh what laughs were had!

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Panda said:

I remember reddit being 100% sure TFA would beat Avatar. Oh what laughs were had!

It was great.

 

Watching them come to terms which just how much 1.0A actually is. Brilliant.

[KP1025]

@Deuce66

 

I just wanted to say that BOM's Avatar gross for Taiwan is incorrect since it only includes the city of Taipei. Avatar is the highest grossing movie in Taiwan still by a large margin at NT$1.1 billion ($35.7 million using current ER).

[dashrendar44]

Avengers Endgame has literally no chance of topping Avatar in France in attendance (Endgame would have to get a 185% tickets sell increase from AIW), let alone Titanic. For the latter, Endgame would have to stay at least one year in theaters to increase more than 320% from AIW. And I didn't include the re-releases data to be merciful... 

Edited April 20, 2019 by dashrendar44

[George Parr]

16 hours ago, TimmyRiggins said:

The performance of Avatar in Germany, Russia especially blows my mind, Germany is such a dead market these days, and Russia is usually not a leggy market at all. Damn, thanks for this. 

The result in Germany is heavily influenced by 3D and absurdly good exchange rates back then. Apply current exchange rates and the movie is almost 40m lower than that. Which isn't to say that it wasn't an amazing result, even a movie with half of the attendance would be a huge success right now, but circumstances make it look bigger than it actually was. It had less admissions than the first Harry Potter, and thanks to double and triple features the first LOTR beat it out as well. And Titanic is on a whole different level. Even if you added 50% admissions on top, Avatar still wouldn't reach Titanic.

 

Then again, Avatar 2 may just be a movie that could spark a ton of interest again. Not because the first one was beloved, but because it fits to the general taste of German audiences. Over the last few years, Hollywood hasn't really delivered much at all that would create a ton of interest. The only really big movie was TFA. Followed by a bit of James Bond, TLJ, Minions or the Hobbit trilogy. All the CBMs have led to a growth in that particular area, but they haven't exactly been big yet.

[Stewart]

6 minutes ago, George Parr said:

The result in Germany is heavily influenced by 3D and absurdly good exchange rates back then. Apply current exchange rates and the movie is almost 40m lower than that. Which isn't to say that it wasn't an amazing result, even a movie with half of the attendance would be a huge success right now, but circumstances make it look bigger than it actually was. It had less admissions than the first Harry Potter, and thanks to double and triple features the first LOTR beat it out as well. And Titanic is on a whole different level. Even if you added 50% admissions on top, Avatar still wouldn't reach Titanic.

 

Then again, Avatar 2 may just be a movie that could spark a ton of interest again. Not because the first one was beloved, but because it fits to the general taste of German audiences. Over the last few years, Hollywood hasn't really delivered much at all that would create a ton of interest. The only really big movie was TFA. Followed by a bit of James Bond, TLJ, Minions or the Hobbit trilogy. All the CBMs have led to a growth in that particular area, but they haven't exactly been big yet.

Does that bode well for The Lion King by any chance?

[DeeCee]

Given the first feature film was made in Australia it’s fair to consider Australia a fairly mature market. 

 

Did Avatar almost double the previous top grossing film in local currency anywhere else?

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

Given the first feature film was made in Australia it’s fair to consider Australia a fairly mature market. 

 

Did Avatar almost double the previous top grossing film in local currency anywhere else?

Yes.

 

Tripled in China