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Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | It's been 84 years... | Teaser trailer on pg. 1090! | First movie gets re-released September 23!

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4 hours ago, Ozymandias said:

 

It may temporarily revive it or be largely exclusive to the Avatar sequels when it comes to people giving a shit about it, but as far as it becoming a permanent mainstream part of cinema in the way that color film did like Cameron was hyping it up to be in his Avatar promotional tours back in 09 and 10?  Lol not a chance.  3D does not make any of the fundamentals of any film any better like the writing, performances, score, etc.

a billie atleast from 3D for A2. It will come back big and hard

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On 1/20/2022 at 5:49 PM, Issac Newton said:

No, I didn't mean that. A bet of something that is not happening is dangerous. But, here Panda is betting with his home. (A house where he stay) Doesn't that a bit of craziness because if he lost the bet, he will be homeless. After all, Cameron should not be challenged.

 

Remembered when everyone was expecting a drop bigger than 50% on Avatar's 2nd Weekend (DOM) but the drop was only 1.8%

 

Just Remember He is Cameron. The God that ruled All-Time charts for decades, Even Russo brothers could not rule the chart for a year.... 

It's a joke for comparing Russo brothers to James Cameron

By box office achievement,only Steven Spilberg is same level as James Cameron,they both legend

Edited by Bruce
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I'm stealing someone else's ideas but tell me if "I" am wrong

 

There seems to be a relatively "not difficult" path for Avatar, in which it could drop around 40% ww-china (so about a bit more than 1.3 billion less than 1) and still get over 3 billion ww. No end-of-the-world-economic-disaster required. 

 

Making the pretty safe assumption that it's going to be at least a "good" movie and that it's going to be visually stunning. 1 made 2.6 ww-china. Let's try to adjust that for inflation. Most estimates say it's at around 3.3-3.4 billion. China has 2 avatar runs, 2010 and 2021. We can ignore inflation for the months old 2021 gross and take it at face value, so subtract 50 million to get 3.250 billion. Now take the 200 million from 2010 and considering how stable prices seem to have been turn it into 250 or 300 million. Subtract that. It leaves you very slightly over 3 billion.

 

Take a look at non-china theater expansion over the past 12-13 years, specially in south america, lots of asian nations, africa and the middle east, also a bit of expansion in developed nations, for example, avatar 1 never made it past 3.4k theaters, while NWH released at 4.3k; with that make the relatively safe assumption that avatar, with 2021 theater expansion, would have made "at least" 300 million ww-china more. Add that to our 3 billion adjusted for inflation. 

 

We now get a "real" ww-china avatar gross of 3.3 billion 

 

Quick disclaimer about the effect on gross. Endgame, that wasn't marketed as a 3d experience, still managed to make over 1.1 billion from 3D screens, and many of the countries that have seen great theater expansion recently are still fans of 3D. And we can't forget the fact that in 2009-2010, 3d still had not reached a lot of places (avatars 3d gross made up 80 of its domestic gross but "only" 69% of its worldwide). Also take into account all the other premium formats that have popped up. What people remember the most of Avatar is the 3d, and they'll know what to look for in december; the 3d will still be there if they want it, and they will.

 

So lets say 2 were to lose 40% of the originals "real" ww-china gross, which would get it to 2 billion. And then if china behaves like we all expect it will, so around a billion (I don't dare think of anything higher for now) that gets it to 3 billion and possibly the highest podium (depending on how serious they are about re-releasing 1).

 

And thats without even considering considering the possibility that highly anticipated (as we are starting to see from the quorum numbers) sequels to beloved movies don't tend to drop that much.

 

And even if it dropped 50% ww-china from the first, that would still get it on the podium with over 2.5 billion, which I think would be pretty good for the sequel to a movie "without cultural impact".

 

I'm certain it'll release in china, though it's possible maybe even somewhat likely it gets pulled if it gets to 800 million with a lot of gas left.

 

Short summary of all my bs: If Chinas is in, Avatar 2 has a relatively achievable path to 3 billion. That path would allow avatar 2, if it gets the china numbers we are expecting it to get, to drop 40% ww-china from the first one, and get 3 billion. I'm not saying it's easy, grosses over 1.5 billion never are, but that path is there, and it doesn't require any crazy over performances or holds. 

 

I don't even want to talk about what would happen if it held the firsts ww-china numbers or even improved upon them; we'd be talking about 4 or 5 billion then. A ) I think that's really really hard due to the "special" nature of the first B ) I don't want to think about global economic catastrophe just yet C ) I think that's Avatar 5 territory D ) exchange rates

 

Feel free to tell me why everything I just typed is wrong

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by interiorgatordecorator
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It's all depends on How Avatar 2 put the movie to the new era.

James Cameron is not like other director ,he is the symbol of revolution

The new revolution will make Avatar 2 boost worldwide and even save the entire world cinema,I'm not surprise if Avatar2 box office over 3.5B

So Let's give JC another great job,save the world cinema,make the people which cinema lost because of COVID back to cinema again.

Edited by Bruce
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14 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

I'm stealing someone else's ideas but tell me if "I" am wrong

 

There seems to be a relatively "not difficult" path for Avatar, in which it could drop around 40% ww-china (so about a bit more than a billion less than 1) and still get over 3 billion ww. No end-of-the-world-economic-disaster required. 

 

Making the pretty safe assumption that it's going to be at least a "good" movie and that it's going to be visually stunning. 1 made 2.6 ww-china. Let's try to adjust that for inflation. Most estimates say it's at around 3.3-3.4 billion. China has 2 avatar runs, 2010 and 2021. We can ignore inflation for the months old 2021 gross and take it at face value, so subtract 50 million to get 3.250 billion. Now take the 200 million from 2010 and considering how stable prices seem to have been turn it into 250 or 300 million. Subtract that. It leaves you very slightly over 3 billion.

 

Take a look at non-china theater expansion over the past 12-13 years, specially in south america, lots of asian nations, africa and the middle east, also a bit of expansion in developed nations, for example, avatar 1 never made it past 3.4k theaters, while NWH released at 4.3k; with that make the relatively safe assumption that avatar, with 2021 theater expansion, would have made "at least" 300 million ww-china more. Add that to our 3 billion adjusted for inflation. 

 

We now get a "real" ww-china avatar gross of 3.3 billion 

 

Quick disclaimer about the effect on gross. Endgame, that wasn't marketed as a 3d experience, still managed to make over 1.1 billion from 3D screens, and many of the countries that have seen great theater expansion recently are still fans of 3D. And we can't forget the fact that in 2009-2010, 3d still had not reached a lot of places (avatars 3d gross made up 80 of its domestic gross but "only" 69% of its worldwide). Also take into account all the other premium formats that have popped up. What people remember the most of Avatar is the 3d, and they'll know what to look for in december; the 3d will still be there if they want it, and they will.

 

So lets say 2 were to lose 40% of the originals "real" ww-china gross, which would get it to 2 billion. And then if china behaves like we all expect it will, so around a billion (I don't dare think of anything higher for now) that gets it to 3 billion and possibly the highest podium (depending on how serious they are about re-releasing 1).

 

And thats without even considering considering the possibility that highly anticipated (as we are starting to see from the quorum numbers) sequels to beloved movies don't tend to drop that much.

 

And even if it dropped 50% ww-china from the first, that would still get it on the podium with over 2.5 billion, which I think would be pretty good for the sequel to a movie "without cultural impact".

 

I'm certain it'll release in china, though it's possible maybe even somewhat likely it gets pulled if it gets to 800 million with a lot of gas left.

 

Short summary of all my bs: If Chinas is in, Avatar 2 has a relatively achievable path to 3 billion. That path would allow avatar 2, if it gets the china numbers we are expecting it to get, to drop 40% ww-china from the first one, and get 3 billion. I'm not saying it's easy, grosses over 1.5 billion never are, but that path is there, and it doesn't require any crazy over performances or holds. 

 

I don't even want to talk about what would happen if it held the firsts ww-china numbers or even improved upon them; we'd be talking about 4 or 5 billion then. A ) I think that's really really hard due to the "special" nature of the first B ) I don't want to think about global economic catastrophe just yet C ) I think that's Avatar 5 territory D ) exchange rates

 

Feel free to tell me why everything I just typed is wrong

Good analysis, broadly agree, although I am hoping the fed ups rates before Dec for this to really get into gear exchange rate wise. Otherwise, broad agreement.

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21 hours ago, Tokugennumataka said:

I don't think anymore unexpected original megahits like Titanic or Avatar is getting the #1 again. If any sequel can do it, it's this one. I think people are wildly underestimating the growth of some Asian markets (not China) since 2009. 

James cameron the only man to have unbeatable world breakers back to back will conquer yet again. Nwh has really made be feel 1b domestic and 4bill os is still truly possible if Cameron has blown away the immersive real surround 3d  and just near perfect movie experience that was the original Avatar. 

Cant wait to see what happens.

 

And agreed all the Asian bo markets have grown and will be going crazy play A2 Juggernaut 2022 all day long. Records will be broken even in the pandemic. 😎

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10 hours ago, Lothar said:

The amount of Avatar wallpaper I see on insta is amazing. Looks like JC is not slowing down. Is he planning to top 4-5 billies?

 

 

" will show them this is our land! Once again pandora fans.

I'm ready to visit this world again...Always bet on JC big projects indeed.

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3 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

The new android game has lots of lore that if they make it into the sequels means massive world changes.

 

Like what? Or link to the info? 

 

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1 minute ago, RiddlerXXR said:

 

Like what? Or link to the info? 

 

Avatars are now mass produced and cheap enough to be expendable. I got most of the info from an Avatar discord server - not sure if allowed to link that here.

Edited by JamesCameronScholar
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