Toy Story 4 | June 20, 2019 | 6th most profitable movie of 2019. Disney does it again!

[cannastop]

I'm not surprised by 200OW predictions.

[Captain Craig]

8 minutes ago, UserHN said:

https://deadline.com/2019/05/toy-story-4-opening-weekend-box-office-projection-fandango-atom-presale-records-1202624173/

 

Deadline is saying that $200M OW is possible for TS4 because presale is on fire. 

With exception to Dumbo this past spring Disney is killing it this year so far with their film slate.

[MovieMan89]

20 minutes ago, UserHN said:

https://deadline.com/2019/05/toy-story-4-opening-weekend-box-office-projection-fandango-atom-presale-records-1202624173/

 

Deadline is saying that $200M OW is possible for TS4 because presale is on fire. 

Holy shit. I expected Dory OW at the absolute best. Having a hard time believing this could beat I2 since the hype has never seemed as big, however it would be a hilarious twist for all the people here who have been saying for a year+ that this would do 300-350 DOM or even sub 300. Knew under 350 was never happening.  If this does 200+ on OW, it will definitely cement Toy Story as animation's most powerful IP. 

 

Also, if this is going 600+, TLK's prospects go down. No way we get two family films that massive back to back. 

Edited May 30, 2019 by MovieMan89

[MrFanaticGuy34]

13 minutes ago, cannastop said:

I'm not surprised by 200OW predictions.

Neither am i. Just needs an over $80M+ or higher OD for $200M+ OW to happen. Unlike last year where I2 had JW:FK in its 2nd weekend...TS4 has no big competitor the weekend after, which might give it a great 2nd weekend drop.

Edited May 30, 2019 by MrFanaticGuy34

[jedijake]

I doubt the $200 million ow (let's see what BOP says tomorrow although they were SO wrong with Aladdin). 

 

But if it does or is close, what does that do to the chances of TLK also reaching that a month later?

[The Futurist]

1 hour ago, sfran43 said:

 

Audiences are craving original content at the movies.

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, jedijake said:

I doubt the $200 million ow (let's see what BOP says tomorrow although they were SO wrong with Aladdin). 

 

But if it does or is close, what does that do to the chances of TLK also reaching that a month later?

The market can not support two movies that huge from the same demo so close. Especially since Aladdin and SLOP will be making a notable dent this month as well. 

Edited May 30, 2019 by MovieMan89

[Avatree]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

The market can not support two movies that huge from the same demo so close. Especially since Aladdin and SLOP will be making a notable dent this month as well. 

FLOP will not have any impact on Toy Story 4.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Avatree said:

FLOP will not have any impact on Toy Story 4.

It's gonna make 200 at the absolute worst. That's certainly a dent in the market. I didn't say it would really impact TS4. Far more likely that Aladdin+SLOP+TS4 all doing big business hurts TLK. The market will be exhausted. 

[Avatree]

5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

It's gonna make 200 at the absolute worst. That's certainly a dent in the market. I didn't say it would really impact TS4. Far more likely that Aladdin+SLOP+TS4 all doing big business hurts TLK. The market will be exhausted. 

oh I just realised they're only two weeks apart actually, my bad. And yes Aladdin + FLOP means families have been satisfied for a little while.

 

[cookie]

If TLK has a demographic split similar to Aladdin and BatB I wouldn't worry too much about the TS4+SLOP2 combo. Its more direct competitor would be Spider-Man.

Edited May 30, 2019 by cookie

[filmlover]

30 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Holy shit. I expected Dory OW at the absolute best. Having a hard time believing this could beat I2 since the hype has never seemed as big, however it would be a hilarious twist for all the people here who have been saying for a year+ that this would do 300-350 DOM or even sub 300. Knew under 350 was never happening.  If this does 200+ on OW, it will definitely cement Toy Story as animation's most powerful IP. 

 

Also, if this is going 600+, TLK's prospects go down. No way we get two family films that massive back to back. 

Disney seems to be immune to box office standards this year so the sky is still pretty much the limit for The Lion King.

 

Meanwhile, Disney right now being all like:

 

[The Futurist]

Second trilogy.

Endgame in Summer 2025.

[Ryan Reynolds]

https://variety.com/2019/film/news/toy-story-4-box-office-opening-weekend-tracking-1203228178/

Box Office: ‘Toy Story 4’ Eyes Huge $100-150 Million Opening Weekend

[nguyenkhoi282]

The summer market is big enough to handle the load. The Lion King only needs to be good (and it is), to do well alongside others. A Disney movie won't hurt another one.

[The Wild Eric]

10 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

https://variety.com/2019/film/news/toy-story-4-box-office-opening-weekend-tracking-1203228178/

Box Office: ‘Toy Story 4’ Eyes Huge $100-150 Million Opening Weekend

Variety really out here trying to be that guy smh

[expensiveho]

What? This doesn't feel as hyped as I2, I know Toy Story is Pixar's crown jewel but WHAT? 

 

If there's over I2/200m talk, I'd guess 135-150m OW/500m DOM is realistic (even pessimistic) and honestly that's mind blowing. 

 

Disney always wins I guess. Maleficent will be their yearly sacrifice (since Dumbo underperformed but I dont think it's even that far away from breakeven and I dont see any Fox release doing that bad, maybe Dark Phoenix?)

[rihrey]

So Toy Story 4, The Lion King, Frozen 2 and Star Wars 9 could all open above $200M? i- 

Edited May 30, 2019 by rihrey

[Juby]

I'm hoping for at least $183M OW. 

[MagnarTheGreat]

wide range of opening scenarios * June Pixar dormant franchise sequel multipliers

 

If Toy Story 4 performs like…
First Weekend	3.00	3.26 (Monsters University)	3.33 (Incredibles 2)	3.60 (Finding Dory)	3.76 (Toy Story 3)	4.00
$50.0M	$150.0M	$163.0M	$166.5M	$180.0M	$188.0M	$200.0M
$60.0M	$180.0M	$195.6M	$199.8M	$216.0M	$225.6M	$240.0M
$70.0M	$210.0M	$228.2M	$233.1M	$252.0M	$263.2M	$280.0M
$80.0M	$240.0M	$260.8M	$266.4M	$288.0M	$300.8M	$320.0M
$90.0M	$270.0M	$293.4M	$299.7M	$324.0M	$338.4M	$360.0M
$100.0M	$300.0M	$326.0M	$333.0M	$360.0M	$376.0M	$400.0M
$110.0M	$330.0M	$358.6M	$366.3M	$396.0M	$413.6M	$440.0M
$120.0M	$360.0M	$391.2M	$399.6M	$432.0M	$451.2M	$480.0M
$130.0M	$390.0M	$423.8M	$432.9M	$468.0M	$488.8M	$520.0M
$140.0M	$420.0M	$456.4M	$466.2M	$504.0M	$526.4M	$560.0M
$150.0M	$450.0M	$489.0M	$499.5M	$540.0M	$564.0M	$600.0M
$160.0M	$480.0M	$521.6M	$532.8M	$576.0M	$601.6M	$640.0M
$170.0M	$510.0M	$554.2M	$566.1M	$612.0M	$639.2M	$680.0M
$180.0M	$540.0M	$586.8M	$599.4M	$648.0M	$676.8M	$720.0M
$190.0M	$570.0M	$619.4M	$632.7M	$684.0M	$714.4M	$760.0M
$200.0M	$600.0M	$652.0M	$666.0M	$720.0M	$752.0M	$800.0M
$210.0M	$630.0M	$684.6M	$699.3M	$756.0M	$789.6M	$840.0M
$220.0M	$660.0M	$717.2M	$732.6M	$792.0M	$827.2M	$880.0M
$230.0M	$690.0M	$749.8M	$765.9M	$828.0M	$864.8M	$920.0M
$240.0M	$720.0M	$782.4M	$799.2M	$864.0M	$902.4M	$960.0M
$250.0M	$750.0M	$815.0M	$832.5M	$900.0M	$940.0M	$1000.0M

 

unadjusted wide sequel openings close to these highlighted in bold above:

 

Disney Pixar Movie	Opening	% change	Dom. Total	% change	Annual Ticket Price % Change
Monsters, Inc. (2001)	$62.6M		$255.9M
Monsters University (2013)	$82.4M	31.7%	$268.5M	4.9%	43.9%
Finding Nemo (2003)	$70.3M		$339.7M
Finding Dory (2016)	$135.1M	92.3%	$486.3M	43.1%	43.5%
The Incredibles (2004)	$70.5M		$261.4M
Incredibles 2 (2018)	$182.7M	159.3%	$608.6M	132.8%	46.7%
Toy Story 3 (2010)	$110.3M		$415.0M
Toy Story 4 (2019)*	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	~15.5%
* ticket price from 2018 used for 2019 from http://www.natoonline.org/data/ticket-price/