Weekend numbers, version 2: With RTH Sunday, new projections TMNT 65.5, GOTG 42.2

[Jake Gittes]

I'll be seeing ITS before Turtles.  That last shot in the trailer, the planes being sucked into the wind, has me salivating to see it.

Still doesn't beat the flying cow from Twister

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

Gods make mistakes after all!

 

 

He didn't make a mistake, the 1 dared to defy him the extra line to be a 7. Insolent integer!

[Fake]

I think $275 million is happening. Labor Day weekend will be a huge help.

Agree....

 

Next weekend will determine where exactly it is going. The better the drop next weekend, the better multiplier it will get from there on....

 

So my projections based on next weekend drop:

 

50% drop - 3.25x multiplier - $265m

45% drop - 3.50x multiplier - $277m

40% drop - 3.75x multiplier - $291m

35% drop - 4.00x multiplier - $306m

[Mango]

Agree....Next weekend will determine where exactly it is going. The better the drop next weekend, the better multiplier it will get from there on....So my projections based on next weekend drop:50% drop - 3.25x multiplier - $265m45% drop - 3.50x multiplier - $277m40% drop - 3.75x multiplier - $291m35% drop - 4.00x multiplier - $306m

One thing I've noticed, despite having a slightly smaller OW and smaller second weekend, thanks to late summer weekdays, GOTG is pretty much on par with IM1's gross at the same point.Of course, as summer weekdays start to lose power in the coming weeks (whereas IM was GAINING the weekdays as its gross went on), I do expect it to fall behind a solid amount.

[miketheavenger]

Guardians increased from estimates again? 

 

[Breakspear]

One thing I've noticed, despite having a slightly smaller OW and smaller second weekend, thanks to late summer weekdays, GOTG is pretty much on par with IM1's gross at the same point.Of course, as summer weekdays start to lose power in the coming weeks (whereas IM was GAINING the weekdays as its gross went on), I do expect it to fall behind a solid amount.

 

I'm still amazed at Iron Man 1's domestic take. No Iron Man-less film in the MCU has opened more than the 98mil it made or made over 300mil. This was also when there was no 3D at all and when the character was quite unknown to general audiences. Also was more than Man Of Steel's gross last year and more than any X-Men. 

 

Will be great if Guardians can try to keep up with it. 

Edited August 11, 2014 by Breakspear

[eXtacy]

Guardians 42.2m 

 

It should be at 220-225m by end of next weekend.

Edited August 11, 2014 by eXtacy

[Spidey Freak]

I'm still amazed at Iron Man 1's domestic take. No Iron Man-less film in the MCU has opened more than the 98mil it made or made over 300mil. This was also when there was no 3D at all and when the character was quite unknown to general audiences. Also was more than Man Of Steel's gross last year and more than any X-Men. 

 

Will great if Guardians can try to keep up with it. 

 

Dat RDJ effect!  Well, that and the fact that IM1 is such a freaking smart movie.

Edited August 11, 2014 by Spidey Freak

[eXtacy]

6.0 (-55%)

7.2 (+20%)

5.0 (-29%)

4.6 (-7%)

 

My projections this week for GOTG

Edited August 11, 2014 by eXtacy

[Fake]

 

6.0 (-55%)

7.2 (+20%)

5.0 (-29%)

4.6 (-7%)

 

My projections this week for GOTG

 

I doubt the weekdays will be so strong.

 

Monday number should be around 5.5m.

[eXtacy]

I doubt the weekdays will be so strong.

 

Monday number should be around 5.5m.

 

Not impossible bro, check out same time frame last year

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2013-08-12&p=.htm

Edited August 11, 2014 by eXtacy

[terrestrial]

But it wasn't that much of a surprise.  Tracking had it at 45-50 mill.  Guru doesn't seem to pay attention to tracking.  

 

Tracking here had it for a very long time at $39m. That got adjusted to $40m

 

Twitter positive:negative ratio was rather bad till the release date, didn't even rise after early screenings... But jumped up at the release date and than dropped again a lot. TMNT's Facebook likes numbers were way better than GotG before their release dates, but still GotG opened higher, so what to pick

[baumer]

 

6.0 (-55%)

7.2 (+20%)

5.0 (-29%)

4.6 (-7%)

 

My projections this week for GOTG

 

 

Looks reasonable.

[K1stpierre]

Great number for Turtles!!! Way higher than I expected. Will be interesting to see the legs. WOM seems 50/50.

[DeeCee]

He didn't make a mistake, the 1 dared to defy him the extra line to be a 7. Insolent integer!

Puny integer!

[spatulashack]

SATURDAY TO SUNDAY ACTUAL DROPS:

 

Ninja (-20%)

Guardians (-23%)

Into the Storm (-31%)

The Hundred-Foot Journey (-30%)

Lucy (-27%)

Hercules (-31%)

Get on Up (-32%)

Step Up All In (-28%)

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (-26%)

Edited August 11, 2014 by spatulashack

[Mojoguy]

SATURDAY TO SUNDAY ACTUAL DROPS:

 

Ninja (-20%)

Guardians (-23%)

Into the Storm (-31%)

The Hundred-Foot Journey (-30%)

Lucy (-27%)

Hercules (-31%)

Get on Up (-32%)

Step Up All In (-28%)

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (-26%)

It's nice that TMNT and GOTG had the best Sunday drops.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Awesome for both Guardians and Turtles. I expect both to come in over $20M next weekend.

 

Turtles $25.1M

Guardians $23.6M

Expendables III $22.7M

[lilmac]

About a year ago, We're the Millers went on its fantastic run.

 

Let us reminisce.

[Caladbolg]

SATURDAY TO SUNDAY ACTUAL DROPS:

 

Ninja (-20%)

Guardians (-23%)

Into the Storm (-31%)

The Hundred-Foot Journey (-30%)

Lucy (-27%)

Hercules (-31%)

Get on Up (-32%)

Step Up All In (-28%)

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (-26%)

 

Are Friday/Sat numbers still the same?

 

-23 from Sat would give Guardians a $13m.