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LexJoker

Wednesday #s 12/17 - Hobbit3 $24-25M(Rth)

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This is obviously going to be one of the worst Christmas's of the decade for the box office. (The rest of the decade is loaded up with SW and MI5 and Avatar, so I doubt we'll see any worse than this year's going forward.) If Annie and The Gambler both fail to connect, we're boned. Hopefully at least Annie will do well. Into The Woods is almost guaranteed to be a big winner, simply by default.

 

 

Good news for all the fans of Mockingjay and Interstellar and even Hobbit though. Legs are probably going to be even better than other Christmas breaks, simply due to lack of competition.

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This is obviously going to be one of the worst Christmas's of the decade for the box office. (The rest of the decade is loaded up with SW and MI5 and Avatar, so I doubt we'll see any worse than this year's going forward.) If Annie and The Gambler both fail to connect, we're boned. Hopefully at least Annie will do well. Into The Woods is almost guaranteed to be a big winner, simply by default.

 

 

Good news for all the fans of Mockingjay and Interstellar and even Hobbit though. Legs are probably going to be even better than other Christmas breaks, simply due to lack of competition.

 

Depends on your definition of competition. Just the existence of these movies will take a lot of screens away from the holdovers.

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THE HOBBIT: BATTLE OF THE FIVE ARMIES delivered a debut of $24.4M yesterday.

 

 

If it follows the trajectory of 'Return of the King' (which also opened on Wed, Dec 17 and was the finale of its series), 'Battle of the Five Armies' will make $267M. Not bad, but in no way impressive either.

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If it follows the trajectory of 'Return of the King' (which also opened on Wed, Dec 17 and was the finale of its series), 'Battle of the Five Armies' will make $267M. Not bad, but in no way impressive either.

Except... It's not going to follow that trajectory.

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If it follows the trajectory of 'Return of the King' (which also opened on Wed, Dec 17 and was the finale of its series), 'Battle of the Five Armies' will make $267M. Not bad, but in no way impressive either.

 

Hard to see how it would follow that trajectory.  That was a critically acclaimed end to a beloved series on it's way to winning Best Picture.

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I can't believe it opened so low despite the finale factor and munch stronger marketing. I have to believe this will have a big jump on Friday

 

I think if the reviews (or movie) had been better it would have lured in some of the people who'd been left underwhelmed by the first two.   It needed more buzz about the quality to lure back the disenchanted.  If it starts getting good WOM then it should have improved legs.  The lack of significant competition over the X-Mas holidays might also help.

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If it follows the trajectory of 'Return of the King' (which also opened on Wed, Dec 17 and was the finale of its series), 'Battle of the Five Armies' will make $267M. Not bad, but in no way impressive either.

This makes no sense. 1st this includes previews from tuesday which ROTK did not have(it was a midnight release). So it grossed just 13.2M on wednesday. How on earth are you extrapolating from that to 267m is beyond me. We have to wait until till fri/sat to get a perspective on where its gonna end.

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I can't believe it opened so low despite the finale factor and munch stronger marketing. I have to believe this will have a big jump on Friday

 

That could happen. Even though they marketed hard releasing weekend before christmas means more gradual run rather than a front loaded OW. But I doubt any 3-day weekend > 50M. But it will have better holiday run as 2 weeks will be good.

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Except... It's not going to follow that trajectory.

 

 

Why not? the bigger the opening is, the smaller the multiplier will be. We have seen it many times before (i.e, Mockingjay will have a better multiplier than Catching Fire)

 

It will be easier for BOTFA to reach that multiplier, given that its OD was 10M lower.

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