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AVENGERS Official Wknd Estimates: 191M - Disney

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No it's not locked, but I think this will get almost exact 2.6 multiplier (no evidence, just faith :P ) so lets say 190OW (even though I think it will be a few million higher) x2.6 and you get basically "just" 500M DOM

It is locked to hit 500m DOM, why you are saying not locked?

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But it's going against 4 major sporting events all day Saturday, including The Fight Of The Century. So AOU will get hit. The question is, how hard will it get hit? Will it be a love tap or a knockout?

No offense but every time I read this I laugh - this fight while huge doesn't hold a candle to the Ali/Frazier fights I grew up with but I guess this is a new century ;)

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It's technically fatigue as crazy as that sounds, or TA1, IM3 were outliers. FF7 won't even lose to TA2 by that much globally.

How is "technically" fatigue? What does that even mean, LOL.  LOL you say that like F7 made chump change ww.  1.3b is a lot of money. I hardly call that fatigue.  

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I feel like the rural grosses must have been reallllly bad for TA2. I mean sellout reports and tracking usually look at big city theaters and extrapolate from there right? I don't see how the numbers keep coming lower than expected.

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It's even better than earlier. It also ilustrates quite nicely that what I've been repeating for about a year now is true: the novelty element, that transformed TA in the beast it was, is gone. It's truly stunning really that this will manage to retain such a big part of the originals OW, even if it will likely decrease by more than 100M when we talk total.

TA was clearly a special event that IM3 benefited from even more than TA2

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True. That's why I think it won't make $217M but it can still make around $210M imo. But anything above $200M is still massive.

 

Show me how it will do 210M from 84.5M friday. Are you saying bigger increase on saturday minus previews and similar drop as Avengers on sunday. This is also assuming there will be zero impact due to fight of the century and other sporting events, and assuming AOU is having similar reception as Avengers.

 

I think 200m is best case scenario with Avengers kind of increase/decrease. Even with IM3 saturday and Avengers sunday it will not break OW record.

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It is locked to hit 500m DOM, why you are saying not locked?

Its not locked at all. The first film was almost universally loved yet it still could only manage 3x legs. The legs for this film will be considerably shorter.

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That isnt that great either. I mean, it's obviously a huge number, but from what I've read in the OS thread, people were expecting another 200M weekend + Friday was a holiday in most markets.

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