Weekend Official Estimates: SA 53.2m, PP 14.4m, TL 13.8m, MMFR 13.6m, AOU 10.9m, Aloha 10m

[Dementeleus]

I think it's had pretty good Saturdays for a Rated R film. The first Saturday it held very well against the opening day minus previews and last weekend it had a solid 33% jump. While I don't necessarily see  50%, I think 45% or so is achievable.

 

Anything above 35% I'd be really happy with. I'm expecting a slightly more conservative 30-35% jump.

[Mattrek]

Closer to 4 should be fine. If last year's corresponding Sat means anything though, Mad Max should jump in the range of 50% on Sat. And Mad Max has had some terrific Sat//Sun

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2014-05-31&track=maleficient.htm

There isn't any comparable film from last year. Last weekend was also inflated, I'd expect in the 20-30% range. No way it gets 50.

Edited May 29, 2015 by Mattrek Loves Del Toro

[Mojoguy]

2.5-3.5m for TL? It music be the toxic WOM!

 

Tomorrowland is REALLY this year's John Carter.

Edited May 29, 2015 by Mojoguy

[Ozymandias]

Tomorrowland is REALLY this year's John Cater.

 

Not quite.  Tomorrowland is a flop, John Carter was a legendary bomb.

[zackzack]

Not quite.  Tomorrowland is a flop, John Carter was a legendary bomb.

 

I thought Battleship was

Edited May 29, 2015 by zackzack

[MrPink]

There isn't any comparable film from last year. Last weekend was also inflated, is expect in the 20-30% range. No way it gets 50.

 

Memorial Day weekend really inflates Sundays more so than Saturdays though. Even without a direct movie to compare to, pretty much all movies managed above 35% increases last year. Either way, I don't think it's going to go below a 30% increase. It already has muted Fridays as is.

 

Besides, I'm not sure there's any movie like Mad Max period to compare to directly.

Edited May 29, 2015 by MrPink

[kayumanggi]

What was JOHN CARTER's budget?

[Fancyarcher]

What was JOHN CARTER's budget?

 

250m+

[Mattrek]

Memorial Day weekend really inflates Sundays more so than Saturdays though. Even without a direct movie to compare to, pretty much all movies managed above 35% increases last year. Either way, I don't think it's going to go below a 30% increase. It already has muted Fridays as is.

Besides, I'm not sure there's any movie like Mad Max period to compare to directly.

While that's true, R-rated films have less of a bump then others because adults can see movies whenever they want to and the gross is more spread throughout the week.

R-rated films increases the Saturday after Memorial Day are as follows going back to 2008 and only including non openers:

Neighbours 38.4%

The Hangover Part 3 24.2%

Chernobyl Diaries 20.3%

The Hangover Part 2 20.8%

Sex and the City 2 8.3%

Only 1 got over 30% and most are in the low 20's. 20-30% for MM is perfectly reasonable especially with its impressive weekday holds.

[Mojoguy]

Not quite.  Tomorrowland is a flop, John Carter was a legendary bomb.

Tomorrowland is also bombing overseas. John Carter actually did ok OS, but that obviously didn't make up its disastrous domestic boxoffice.

[Cedarpoint1111]

How the fuck is it possible for TL to have a 2.5m Friday when it made 1.8m on Thursday? That's only 40% increase.........

[The Futurist]

[Frozen]

I can't figure out if the problem is the humongous eyes or the clown makeup?

[MrPink]

While that's true, R-rated films have less of a bump then others because adults can see movies whenever they want to and the gross is more spread throughout the week.

R-rated films increases the Saturday after Memorial Day are as follows going back to 2008 and only including non openers:

Neighbours 38.4%

The Hangover Part 3 24.2%

Chernobyl Diaries 20.3%

The Hangover Part 2 20.8%

Sex and the City 2 8.3%

Only 1 got over 30% and most are in the low 20's. 20-30% for MM is perfectly reasonable especially with its impressive weekday holds.

 

I think the issue with these films (and I noticed some of these while looking back) is that a lot of them are comedies or have obvious Friday night appeal, as in date night type movies that wouldn't necessarily get big Sat jumps. Not to mention a lot of them didn't exactly have great reviews/WOM either.

 

We'll see I guess. Obviously hoping for the best.

[FilmBuff]

That 2.5 mil seems off for TL.

[Mojoguy]

That 2.5 mil seems off for TL.

Rth already confirmed the numbers. Yeah, it's a disastrous drop.

 

 

 

 

initial estimates seem in the right ball park , also MMFR/PP2 around 3-4m,TL 2.5-3.5, Polt 2

[Maxmoser3]

Thank you Dwayne.

me gusta

[4815162342]

I think the issue with these films (and I noticed some of these while looking back) is that a lot of them are comedies or have obvious Friday night appeal, as in date night type movies that wouldn't necessarily get big Sat jumps. Not to mention a lot of them didn't exactly have great reviews/WOM either.

 

We'll see I guess. Obviously hoping for the best.

 

I Witness This Shiny and Chrome Post

[MrPink]

I Witness This Shiny and Chrome Post

 

Hey if my prediction is gonna be wrong, I'm gonna make a wrong prediction historic on the Fury Road

[GregBeuke]

The Rock is this generations Arnold

The difference is Arnold was a lot bigger box office draw. Stuff like San Andreas and Hercules will end up grossing how Arnold lesser films like End of Days or Last Action Hero did domestically, when you consider inflation. He still doesn't have a T2 or even T3, True Lies, Total Recall, Kindergarten Cop, Twins or Eraser on his resume as a lead. Those movies today would all gross 176-395 million at the domestic box office alone. But on muscles, charisma and such. I agree he's this generations Arnold. He's just not the "star" Arnold was in his prime.

Edited May 30, 2015 by gb0708