Top ten films of 2016 predictions

[Clef Ment]

8 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

First trailer was extremely underwhelming. I honestly won't be shocked to see OW go as low as 110. 

 

Hard to imagine CA 3 having a 110M OW when you look at CA 2 and IM 3 OWs.

 

Also, I don't understand how underwhelming was the (first) trailer? Lots of views everywhere and a full like bar on Youtube.

 

I don't think it will set the world of fire, nor that it will beat BvS DOM, but you are exaggerating imo.

Edited December 29, 2015 by Clef Ment

[dial999now]

On 28/12/2015 at 8:20 AM, tonytr87 said:

 

That's all internet idiocy and misogyny. Nobody was talking about F4 being a bomb until after footage was seen. We haven't seen anything from Ghostbusters, and Feig is a more proven director than Trank. Also, no production controversies to spell doom. 

 

There's literally no reason yet to think it's going to be bad. The original movies are not untouchable, sorry. 

How the heck is that misogyny?!?!

 

I'm just judging by the overwhelming bad reaction to a reboot of Ghostbusters. I've never seen a reaction like it

[Lizzy]

Sorry I can't go back to quote but BOF keeps crashing pages on me. Different as in not an origin story or superhero team up. Civil War comic feels very different, it feels like an important moment in the Marvel Universe, I'm not 100% that the movie will be like that or if it will be another step towards Infinity wars.

[m3racer123]

22 minutes ago, ThiagoMaia said:

Also, for what I know it had the worst received trailer of the 3. On the opening night for TFA at my local theater, we had the three trailers in a row, both Civil War and BvS had a lot of cheers, but Apocalypse didn't get any reaction.

 

Judging by general audience reaction rather than just one theater, I think the last BvS trailer had the worst reception of the three. It has the worst like to dislike ratio of the three on YouTube and I remember everyone commenting on how terrible Doomsday looks.

 

27 minutes ago, ThiagoMaia said:

Oh, and apparently, no Wolverine, so...

 

99% sure it will have at least a Wolverine cameo (like First Class), even if it's not featured in the marketing.

 

Seeing how well DoFP was received, the goodwill will carry over from that. Even if the film's not very good (unlikely), people will go and see it just because they liked DoFP. I can't picture a scenario in which Apocalypse only makes $200m, given DoFP increased by $90m over First Class.

[ThiagoMaia]

22 minutes ago, ThiagoMaia said:

Also, for what I know it had the worst received trailer of the 3. On the opening night for TFA at my local theater, we had the three trailers in a row, both Civil War and BvS had a lot of cheers, but Apocalypse didn't get any reaction.

 

Judging by general audience reaction rather than just one theater, I think the last BvS trailer had the worst reception of the three. It has the worst like to dislike ratio of the three on YouTube and I remember everyone commenting on how terrible Doomsday looks.

 

27 minutes ago, ThiagoMaia said:

Oh, and apparently, no Wolverine, so...

 

99% sure it will have at least a Wolverine cameo (like First Class), even if it's not featured in the marketing.

 

Seeing how well DoFP was received, the goodwill will carry over from that. Even if the film's not very good (unlikely), people will go and see it just because they liked DoFP. I can't picture a scenario in which Apocalypse only makes $200m, given DoFP increased by $90m over First Class.

DoFP had wolverine, and first class didn't...

[Cochofles]

Are we still pretending that internet geeks reactions equals GA reception of a trailer? Ok. Nothing to see here.

[m3racer123]

1 minute ago, ThiagoMaia said:

DoFP had wolverine, and first class didn't...

 

I don't think that's the reason DoFP made so much more. If anything, audiences are probably getting fed up of Wolverine now, after seeing him in 6 films + a cameo in First Class. First Class didn't make very much because audiences were sceptical after the last 2 films (Last Stand and Origins) weren't very good. DoFP made more because First Class was very good, producing an effect similar to The Dark Knight after Batman Begins (a huge increase).

[ThiagoMaia]

1 minute ago, ThiagoMaia said:

DoFP had wolverine, and first class didn't...

 

I don't think that's the reason DoFP made so much more. If anything, audiences are probably getting fed up of Wolverine now, after seeing him in 6 films + a cameo in First Class. First Class didn't make very much because audiences were sceptical after the last 2 films (Last Stand and Origins) weren't very good. DoFP made more because First Class was very good, producing an effect similar to The Dark Knight after Batman Begins (a huge increase).

I am fed up with wolverine, but after seeing the comment section of the trailer on YouTube and how many comments were asking "Where is wolverine" I started to think that he is a part of the draw.

I think the ceiling for this is DoFP. Considering the stronger competition, specially from superhero team movies and lack of Wolverine, I'm sticking with 200m.

[m3racer123]

1 minute ago, ThiagoMaia said:

I think the ceiling for this is DoFP. Considering the stronger competition, specially from superhero team movies and lack of Wolverine, I'm sticking with 200m.

 

I think the floor for this is DoFP. Considering DoFP made $90m more than FC, and that Wolverine isn't such a box office draw any more (2013's 'The Wolverine' only made $132m) so DoFP's success can't be attributed to that, I'm sticking with $280m.

 

We'll see who's closest when the time comes anyway.

[kayumanggi]

2 hours ago, Cochofles said:

Are we still pretending that internet geeks reactions equals GA reception of a trailer? Ok. Nothing to see here.

 

Oh yes we are. lol

[ThiagoMaia]

2 hours ago, Cochofles said:

Are we still pretending that internet geeks reactions equals GA reception of a trailer? Ok. Nothing to see here.

 

Oh yes we are. lol

What would be a good indication of GA reactions?

[Kvikk Lunsj]

On 7/17/2015 at 2:54 PM, Darth Dexter of Hoth said:

1. captain America: Civil War 450m

2. batman vs Superman 390m

3. Finding Dory 315m

4. Dr. strange 285m

5 Star Wars Rogue One 270

6. Moana 260m

7. X-Men 250m

8. Fantastic Beast 245m

9. Star Trek 215m

10. Turtles 2 190m.

1.  Rogue One: A Star Wars story 420m

2. Captain America: Civil War 350m

3. Batman V. Superman: Dawn of Justice 333m

4. Finding Dory 300m

5. Zootopia 275m 

6. Moana 250m

7. Fantastic Beast 245m

8. X-Men Apocalypse 240m

9.  Dr. Strange 210m

10.   Jungle Book 200m

11. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle 2 190m

12. Suicide Squad 185m

13. Independence Day 2 177m 

14. Secret Life of Pets 160m 

15.  Alice in Wonderland: Through the Looking Glass 155m

16. Star Trek: Beyond 150m 

HM Ghostbusters 100m

Warcraft 90m 

Huntsmen: Winter's War 130m 

[Ethan Hunt]

23 hours ago, DamienRoc said:

1. Finding Dory ~550m

2. Independence Day: Resurgence ~500m

3. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice ~460m

4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story ~440m

5. Captain America: Civil War ~400m

6. Zootopia ~340m

7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them ~320m

8. The Secret Life of Pets ~300m

9. Moana ~300m

10. Ghostbusters ~280m

God damn if this comes true we'll have one hell of a year

[DAJK]

Zootopia is way over predicted here methinks. I'd be surprised if it made 200M.

[Ethan Hunt]

5 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Zootopia is way over predicted here methinks. I'd be surprised if it made 200M.

I was thinking Wreck it Ralph numbers but man, Disney's on a hot streak and the second trailer seems to getting great reception everywhere

 

Big Hero 6 numbers should be doable at the least IMO

 

Edited December 29, 2015 by Ethan Hunt

[BadAtGender]

4 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

God damn if this comes true we'll have one hell of a year

 

It's early, especially for the late summer/Holiday releases which have largely not been marketed. For instance, the only films in July that have teasers are Secret Life of Pets (which I'm betting a bit high on based on Illumination's track record) and Star Trek Beyond (which I think will do better than many people assume, but not in the top 10 range). The only films after July are Suicide Squad (which was arguably a mistake. They probably didn't want to have any marketing out for it before BvS' release), Kubo and the Two Strings (IIRC, The Boxtrolls had a similarly early teaser), and Fantastic Beasts (which is a major tentpole, so an early teaser makes sense.) 

 

Heck, I don't think there are any films after BvS that have even gotten their second trailers, yet. Everything from April on is in teaser territory. (Although several of them are pretty full teasers. Disney seems to only have true teasers for animated material nowadays.)

 

So trying to predict the year is dealing with imperfect information. I'm going high on a few of them just on some gut impressions, really.

 

Zootopia's the one I probably feel most confident betting that high. The response to the marketing, and the really smart choice to put it with Star Wars, has increased its positive exposure tremendously.

 

(But you're right that it probably would be ridiculous. If you dropped everything on the list by about 50m, it's probably more realistic.)

[WrathOfHan]

1 hour ago, DAJK said:

Zootopia is way over predicted here methinks. I'd be surprised if it made 200M.

Zootopia has everything going for it:

 

No competition for 4 weeks and no direct competition until week 7

First tentpole since Deadpool and Zoolander

Great marketing

[Gokai Red]

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, 160/500

Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice, 200/470

Captain America: Civil War, 185/470

Finding Dory, 130/450

Zootopia, 75/275

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, 110/270

X-Men: Apocalypse, 100/260

Moana, 70/250

Independence Day: Resurgence, 90/250

Doctor Strange, 80/220

 

The Force Awakens has entirely changed the predictions for Rogue One. Most people seemed to be predicting 300-400 for it, now 400+ almost seems like a foregone conclusion. I personally had it at 140/400 before TFA hit.

Edited December 29, 2015 by Gokai Red

[Kalo]

New Predictions

 

1.Rogue One a Star Wars Story $140m/$450m

2.Finding Dory $125/$440m

3.Captain America: Civil War $165/$425m

4.Batman V Superman $180/$410m

5.Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find them $105/$285m

6.Moana $80/$280m

7.Suicide Squad $105/$275m

8.Zootopia $75/$255m

9.Independence Day: Resurgence $100/$250m

10.X-Men Apocalypse $95/$245m

11.The Jungle Book $$80/$242m

12.Bourne 5 $85/$235m

13.The Secret Life of Pets $70/$225m

14.Doctor Strange $80m/$210m

15.Kung Fu Panda 3 $63/$190m

16.Alice through the Looking Glass $65/$185m

17.Angry Birds $55m/$180m

18.Deadpool $65/$165m

19.Assassin's Creed $47/$165m

20.Star Trek Beyond $63/$160m

21.Sing $42/$155m

22.Passengers $40/$150m

23.The Great Wall $55/$150m

[CelestialFairyIX]

Just Disney alone I see around $3 billion domestically from them:

 

DISNEY:

 

1. Finding Dory, $167 / 500+ million --> WW, $1.2 - 1.4 billion

2. Rogue One, $155 / 425+ million --> WW $1 billion

3. Captain America: Civil War, $175 / 425+ million --> WW $1.2 - 1.6 billion

4. Zootopia, $74 / 280+ million --> WW $700 - 850 million

5. Moana, $67 - 80 / 280+ million --> WW $800 - 900 million

6. The Jungle Book, $100 / O/U 250 million --> WW $700 - 800 million

7. Alice Through the Looking Glass, $97 - 101 / 225 million --> WW $800 million - 1 billion

8. The BFG, $60 / 200+ million --> WW, $650 - 750 million

9. Doctor Strange, $50+ / 165+ million --> WW, 450 - 650 million

10. Pete's Dragon, $30+ / 120+ million --> WW, $250 - 350 million

11. The Finest Hours, $14 / 40+ million --> WW, $100 million

12 - 14. Born in China, The Queen of Katwe, and The Light Between Oceans, $100+ million altogether --> WW, $200 million 

 

~ around $3 billion domestic --> WW, $8 - 9.6 billion  

 

Edited December 29, 2015 by CelestialFairyIX