Thursday #s (Rth): Minions 4.8M, Ant-Man 4.6M, TW 3.1M, IO 1.4M, JW 1.26M

[redfirebird2008]

It feels like it's always one of the crazy stanners who makes ONE seemingly insane prediction that turns out right. I haven't been around long enough, but apparently, Kal was right with Avatar, BKB was right with Avengers, and most recently, Excel was right with JW. (And for people who can remember that far back, did Excel have a similarly huge prediction for JW? And was he ridiculed for it then?)

 

Excel didn't predict anything enormous for JP4 until a couple days before release. There was a thread on KJ where he sounded pretty concerned that the movie was going to be lousy and his predictions at that point were not very big. Kal underpredicted Avatar by a pretty big amount. I think Avengers outperformed BKB's predictions too.

[Mattrek]

As I said, my last comment was a goof - I meant, did anyone other than Excel predict TDK was going to break out as huge as it did, or was he the seemingly lone voice on that one too?

I wasn't around here for that, but as far as I know most people had it at least in the 350-400 range, so it was still a surprise, but not a huge, huge "what the fuck just happened" one.

[TServo2049]

OK, never mind. I wasn't following JW because I didn't want to be spoiled.

So TDK was also underpredicted. Just need to know if Excel predicted more than everyone else.

Edited July 24, 2015 by TServo2049

[redfirebird2008]

As I said, my last comment was a goof - I meant, did anyone other than Excel predict TDK was going to break out as huge as it did, or was he the seemingly lone voice on that one too?

 

I am pretty sure BJ from World of KJ is always the most optimistic predictor. He predicted around $400-450m for TDK when everyone else was expecting $250-300m. BJ was probably the closest on Avatar too. I want to say he predicted over $600m for that one but not 100% sure.

[redfirebird2008]

I wasn't around here for that, but as far as I know most people had it at least in the 350-400 range, so it was still a surprise, but not a huge, huge "what the fuck just happened" one.

 

No they most certainly did not. 250-300 was the range for most predictions. Remember Batman Begins made $205m so nobody seriously thought it was going to do way north of $300m.

[Mattrek]

No they most certainly did not. 250-300 was the range for most predictions. Remember Batman Begins made $205m so nobody seriously thought it was going to do way north of $300m.

My mistake, I wasn't around here then. That just furthers my other point I made earlier then. How is it that with all the stats, data and analysis we have these days that absolutely not one person can accurately predict one of the huge "top 5 breakout" hit movies that come along once in a while? We must be missing a key metric of some sort to have so many misses.

Edited July 24, 2015 by Mattrek Loves Del Toro

[TServo2049]

Maybe the BO truly is unpredictable, as far as the most successful movies go. I know that sounds like a cop-out, but what is the most successful movie of the last couple decades where the predictions were closest to what actually happened? Either it goes over (Avatar, TA1, JW) or under (TDKR, AOU, etc.)

Edited July 24, 2015 by TServo2049

[Cochofles]

It's weird how the movies NO ONE predicts to be gigantic are the ones that end up that big. No one predicted any of the top 4 to be as big as they were except BK and Kal with Avatar. I find it funny that as a board with consensus on most films, not one among us can predict the gigantic break out top 5 of all time movies. Are we all missing a key piece of the puzzle in our analysis? What do you guys think?

 

No matter how much a person thinks they know about box office, at the end of the day nobody can really truly predict what will connect with audiences. Simple as that.

[TServo2049]

As much as we act like analysts, seems like we often predict what we wish will happen (especially for movies where we have an emotional investment in them succeeding).

Edited July 24, 2015 by TServo2049

[redfirebird2008]

My mistake, I wasn't around here then. That just furthers my other point I made earlier then. How is it that with all the stats, data and analysis we have these days that absolutely not one person can accurately predict one of the huge "top 5 breakout" hit movies that come along once in a while? We must be missing a key metric of some sort to have so many misses.

 

It just happens.

[Moviedweeb]

Both Titanic and Cameron behind them, Jurassic World had a virtual unknown in Trevorrow, Jurassic World is the most surprising.

Jurassic World is very much a Speilberg film and there are actually many who think he directed it. His name on his own card appears in every trailer about 10 seconds in. In my eyes, the top three films belong to Cameron and Spielberg.

[Ezen Baklattan]

As much as we act like analysts, seems like we often predict what we wish will happen (especially for movies where we have an emotional investment in them succeeding).

Honestly, it's just natural human bias.

[Deep Wang]

Excel didn't predict anything enormous for JP4 until a couple days before release. There was a thread on KJ where he sounded pretty concerned that the movie was going to be lousy and his predictions at that point were not very big.

Not only that, but his club was JW over Age of Ultron at the point when we knew it wasn't hitting $500m. That shows he didn't expect for it to do as well as its doing either.

[pepsa]

It doesn't have bad Wom. It's just front loaded, as DM2 was as well.

 

Yeah who's talking about bad Wom?? It's toxic Wom....

[Infernus]

 

So, did some investigating.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sticks_nix_hick_pix

 

So Mojo's "Flix Crix Nix Pix-els?" => "Film Critics Reject Pixels"

 

 

So Keith is actually a really smart guy? Or atleast a really intelligent guy when it comes to journalism but who has unfortunately been forced into an area really needing experience and knowledge yet also one he seemingly has taken just a few briefings on so as to be able to put out articles?

[pepsa]

Both Titanic and Cameron behind them, Jurassic World had a virtual unknown in Trevorrow, Jurassic World is the most surprising.

 

Totaly not, It had JP one of the most iconic movies ever behind it (don't miss understand me it's truely amazing what it did and none saw it comming) but if starwars would make 700M this december would anyone say, that came out of no where... No it has a big brand behind it's name and a nostalgia factor so yeah I can easly see why Jurasic world broke out and not Godzilla...

[Avatree]

So Keith is actually a really smart guy? Or atleast a really intelligent guy when it comes to journalism but who has unfortunately been forced into an area really needing experience and knowledge yet also one he seemingly has taken just a few briefings on so as to be able to put out articles?

I don't think any of us can say how intelligent he is. Box office is clearly not his area of expertise so it's unfair to judge him on it. As much as I (and many others) have laughed at him, I think he is doing the best he can until they hire an actual BO analyst to manage Mojo.

[Infernus]

I don't think any of us can say how intelligent he is. Box office is clearly not his area of expertise so it's unfair to judge him on it. As much as I (and many others) have laughed at him, I think he is doing the best he can until they hire an actual BO analyst to manage Mojo.

 

Yeah, that was more or less what I was trying to say. BoxOffice is an area one can't master just through intelligence. It needs experience and time to be well understood. He seems to be an intelligent journalist, though seemingly a young and enthusiastic one. Its just that he's been put into the wrong field. Still he seems to be trying to do his best. 

[baumer]

Excel didn't predict anything enormous for JP4 until a couple days before release. There was a thread on KJ where he sounded pretty concerned that the movie was going to be lousy and his predictions at that point were not very big. Kal underpredicted Avatar by a pretty big amount. I think Avengers outperformed BKB's predictions too.

 

And the thing about Kal and BJ is that when you predict 500 million for every movie, once in a while you will get it right.  

[redfirebird2008]

And the thing about Kal and BJ is that when you predict 500 million for every movie, once in a while you will get it right.  

 

Yep!