Thursday #s (Rth): Minions 4.8M, Ant-Man 4.6M, TW 3.1M, IO 1.4M, JW 1.26M

[Avatree]

young and enthusiastic one

he is about 50 so I wouldn't call him young.

[Asyulus]

Where are you rth?

[baumer]

For those of you from the mojo days, you have to give props to Maverick (and BKB).  He/They really nailed Avengers.  And it wasn't just prediction.  Mav analyzed the shit out of that movie and correctly called that it would hit the zeitgeist and it would do so because Marvel had planted the seeds so carefully.

 

Same with Kal and Avatar.  He said that Cameron is a GOD and that it would do extremely well.  He laughed at me and called me silly Baumer when I predicted 300 mill for Avatar.  

 

So sometimes people can take all the facts and make really good predictions.

 

Most of the time, we are talking out of our asses.

[samsha22]

Runs of all the Big Movies except Avatar were surprising at their  times. Jaws, Star Wars, ET, Titanic, JW etc...

For Avatar, many people including me were expecting it to break the Titanic Record.

Edited July 24, 2015 by samsha22

[baumer]

Runs of all the Big Movies except Avatar were surprising at their  times. Jaws, Star Wars, ET, Titanic, JW etc...

For Avatar, many people including me were expecting it to break the Titanic Record.

 

I think there were a lot more who thought Avatar would do well, but not Titanic well, than there people who thought it would set records.

[samsha22]

Runs of all the Big Movies except Avatar were surprising at their  times. Jaws, Star Wars, ET, Titanic, JW etc... For Avatar, many people including me were expecting it to break the Titanic Record.   I think there were a lot more who thought Avatar would do well, but not Titanic well, than there people who thought it would set records.

True..but for JW and Titanic, even the most optimistic predictions were in the 300M range unlike Avatar.

[Gopher]

Both Pixels and Paper Towns did horribly last night. Pixels at roughly a quarter of Ant-Man's previews and 70% of Genysis. Paper Towns at 15% of Fault in Our Stars. 

Edited July 24, 2015 by Gopher

[Infernus]

he is about 50 so I wouldn't call him young.

 

50! So he's like BKB....Figures..

[baumer]

Both Pixels and Paper Towns did horribly last night. Pixels will probably be scantly ahead. Might as well close my club now...

 

Care to elaborate.

[keysersoze123]

lousianna shooting will kill BO this weekend. Both openers and holdovers will do bad for sure.

[baumer]

lousianna shooting will kill BO this weekend. Both openers and holdovers will do bad for sure.

 

I don't think it will.  This isn't nearly as publicized as TDKR.

[filmlover]

Both Pixels and Paper Towns did horribly last night. Pixels will probably be scantly ahead. Might as well close my club now...

Remember when WB moved Pan off of this weekend and into the fall because they wanted to get away from the competition? I'm going to assume they weren't referring to this weekend's crop of openers.

[Mattrek]

I don't understand how some of you didn't get Flix Crix Nix Pix-els. Am I the only one who got it immediately?

[baumer]

For those of you who have never seen our Titanic flashback thread, check this out......it's kind of fun

 

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/10066-pretend-its-1997-all-over-again-the-pure-awe-of-titanics-run/

[Plain Old Tele]

I am pretty sure BJ from World of KJ is always the most optimistic predictor. He predicted around $400-450m for TDK when everyone else was expecting $250-300m. BJ was probably the closest on Avatar too. I want to say he predicted over $600m for that one but not 100% sure.

I don't remember if it was pre-release or just after it opened, but BJ published one of his insane predictions (with all the details: opening day, weekend, daily numbers, etc) saying AVATAR would do something like 850m. And the damn movie actually (kinda) kept up with his numbers.

[mahnamahna]

Not one person on this board had it above 375m when it opened, not one.

I had JW at $425-450m a few weeks before release.

I adjusted my predict after hearing it was tracking at $130m OW, and after Tomorrowland/Avengers 2 disappointed, I figured June would be prime territory for JW to break out.

I may not have said it in a club, but I did adjust my expectations in late May.

I was off by $200m+ but it's not true that no one thought more than $375m.

Then again, I'm ridiculously bullish lol

[Mattrek]

I don't remember if it was pre-release or just after it opened, but BJ published one of his insane predictions (with all the details: opening day, weekend, daily numbers, etc) saying AVATAR would do something like 850m. And the damn movie actually (kinda) kept up with his numbers.

I remember that. I'm pretty sure it was pre-release about a month before it opened.

[Asyulus]

That shooting though, will this affect BO?

[keysersoze123]

I don't remember if it was pre-release or just after it opened, but BJ published one of his insane predictions (with all the details: opening day, weekend, daily numbers, etc) saying AVATAR would do something like 850m. And the damn movie actually (kinda) kept up with his numbers.

 

1.5 years before release.

 

http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=41659&hilit=avatar

[Asyulus]

lousianna shooting will kill BO this weekend. Both openers and holdovers will do bad for sure.

Not really.