Thursday #s (Rth): Minions 4.8M, Ant-Man 4.6M, TW 3.1M, IO 1.4M, JW 1.26M

[Frozen]

@BoxOffice: Sources report that PAPER TOWNS earned $2.0M from Thursday night shows, while PIXELS earned $1.5M. #Pixels #PaperTowns

[CJohn]

Lmao at those numbers. Points towards under 20M OW for both.

[grim22]

Lmao at those numbers. Points towards under 20M OW for both.

Grown Ups 2 did 41M from a 2.1M previews. Similar multiplier would give this around 30M.

Paul Blart 2 did 23M from 450k previews (in April), around 25-30M is the target for Pixels currently unless Friday business just dies.

[RamblinRed]

First off let me say that I am glad I found this forum - I used to pop by BOM and then those disappeared and i had no idea where everyone went.

 

Second, I would expect the LA shooting to have some effect this weekend - to think otherwise is likely very naive. It isn't going to have the same effect as Aurora, but it is still the top story on CNN, on my local newspaper, etc.

 

Third, does every movie now have a preview (or should I say an extra half day which is what they really seem to be now)? And if so why? I just don't feel most movies need previews. Did anyone really think either of these movies were going to make anything significant at all in previews? That seems so unlikely.

[Asyulus]

No surprise at preview midnights.

[miketheavenger]

First off let me say that I am glad I found this forum - I used to pop by BOM and then those disappeared and i had no idea where everyone went.

 

Second, I would expect the LA shooting to have some effect this weekend - to think otherwise is likely very naive. It isn't going to have the same effect as Aurora, but it is still the top story on CNN, on my local newspaper, etc.

 

Third, does every movie now have a preview (or should I say an extra half day which is what they really seem to be now)? And if so why? I just don't feel most movies need previews. Did anyone really think either of these movies were going to make anything significant at all in previews? That seems so unlikely.

On the last part. AFAIK previews came about after the Aurora shooting because people were obviously hesitant to go to midnight showings, so they just started showings earlier. I do think that the first Hobbit movie still had "true" midnight showings, so earlier previews really started to become a thing in 2013.

[Mattrek]

On the last part. AFAIK previews came about after the Aurora shooting because people were obviously hesitant to go to midnight showings, so they just started showings earlier. I do think that the first Hobbit movie still had "true" midnight showings, so earlier previews really started to become a thing in 2013.

He's asking about if every movie has previews before the Friday its opened and if yes the reasoning behind it.

The answers: Yes every wide opening movie does. Why? More buzz and more money.

[Plain Old Tele]

First off let me say that I am glad I found this forum - I used to pop by BOM and then those disappeared and i had no idea where everyone went.

 

Welcome! Yeah, it was very frustrating that BOM just suddenly up and died. Still, in the long run I think it worked out for the best.

[Avatree]

First off let me say that I am glad I found this forum - I used to pop by BOM and then those disappeared and i had no idea where everyone went.

 

Second, I would expect the LA shooting to have some effect this weekend - to think otherwise is likely very naive. It isn't going to have the same effect as Aurora, but it is still the top story on CNN, on my local newspaper, etc.

 

Third, does every movie now have a preview (or should I say an extra half day which is what they really seem to be now)? And if so why? I just don't feel most movies need previews. Did anyone really think either of these movies were going to make anything significant at all in previews? That seems so unlikely.

Thursday previews allow studios to extend the opening weekend so that they have 3.5 days of box office in the space of 3. They can make their weekend numbers seem more impressive than they actually are.

 

Welcome, by the way.

Edited July 24, 2015 by Tree-5000

[grim22]

MINIONS took in $4.79M on Thursday. Domestic total stands at $239.52M. #Minions

— BoxOffice (@BoxOffice)

July 24, 2015

 

TRAINWRECK took in $3.11M on Thursday. 7-Day domestic total stands at $44.25M. #Trainwreck

— BoxOffice (@BoxOffice)

July 24, 2015

 

MAGIC MIKE XXL took in $0.572M on Thursday. Domestic total stands at $61.27M. #MagicMikeXXL

— BoxOffice (@BoxOffice)

July 24, 2015

 

JURASSIC WORLD took in $1.26M on Thursday. Domestic total stands at $616.90M. #JurassicWorld

— BoxOffice (@BoxOffice)

July 24, 2015

 

[Bishop54]

Jurassic World went up again...awesome! Only down 4% from Monday. Yup, it's crumbling.

Edited July 24, 2015 by Bishop54

[RamblinRed]

Do the studios really believe it gives them extra revenue or does it simply spread out the revenue it would have earned anyways over a slightly longer timeframe?

I have a hard time buying that most of the previews add even 1% to the take of the revenue for opening weekend. My belief is that more likely it simply spreads out what it would have earned anyways over a slightly longer time frame.

 

The one exception would be a film with incredibly strong WOM, where that extra night might lead to more people seeing by Sunday night as WOM filters out. But my gut is unless you have JW or IO level WOM it simply is going to have a negligible impact on the bottom line revenue.

[Plain Old Tele]

Do the studios really believe it gives them extra revenue or does it simply spread out the revenue it would have earned anyways over a slightly longer timeframe?

I have a hard time buying that most of the previews add even 1% to the take of the revenue for opening weekend. My belief is that more likely it simply spreads out what it would have earned anyways over a slightly longer time frame.

 

The one exception would be a film with incredibly strong WOM, where that extra night might lead to more people seeing by Sunday night as WOM filters out. But my gut is unless you have JW or IO level WOM it simply is going to have a negligible impact on the bottom line revenue.

 

For fan-driven movies, I think it does a little bit of everything: you get basically a half-day of shows crammed into several hours (at non-matinee prices), you get more gross up-front (meaning a higher percentage of the till), you get some buzz from all the fans, and all that may lead to some extra money in the long run.

 

I agree that it doesn't seem to make much sense for non-fan-driven movies, but the studios seem committed to Thursday evening previews for pretty much every release now.

[terrestrial]

Yeah I think Disney will fudge it to get over 350 at this point if necessary. It'll definitely be the #2 Pixar unadjusted by the end of its run which is (pardon the pun) mindblowing.

 

 

Please anyone enlighten me, is it true about this theory of FUDGE and how studios can escape with such hideous methods?  Sorry my bad English!!!

 

I am really not happy about such light-handed written assumptions or allegations or... however that was meant.

 

Some studios seem to have a tendency to overestimate especially the first weekend (Sunday). If the OW number is rather near to a 'next full number' (like $89m) some studios seem to like to estimate $90m and divide the extra within the first week or...

Why:

reputation, pushing buzz, breaking a former month xy record... helping the film's awareness, implied quality or popularity. Reaching on 1st place,... Winning a 'battle' (do not like that kind of language neither).

 

Sony is Japanese, maybe some 'not-loosing-face' is a reason (after reading the news about a big company fudging numbers for years bcs of being afraid to loose face and their prime minister (?) speaking about a nation-wide problem)? Or not really knowing some US BO calculation models, having the best sources or...

A lot of reasons are possible, not all has to be intentionally.

 

There are some interesting analyses to read, a chart for the Sunday over estimates is here to find:

http://boxofficequant.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Estimate-Inflation-By-Studio.png

 

A chart for 1st weekend, 2nd weekend,... is here to find

http://boxofficequant.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Estimate-Inflation-By-Weekend.png

 

If the charts would be .jpg I could show them direct, as often as those 'fudging' posts are to read, I'd love to see them in a kind of FAQ for newbes or....

 

The entry with all the details here

http://boxofficequant.com/actuals-and-estimates-studio-accuracy-in-box-office-prediction/

 

 

Notes: Neil and I restricted the analysis to films with more than 1,000 theaters showing the film, as it’s unreasonable to expect accurate estimation in smaller releases. All numbers presented only reflect the difference between Sunday estimates and Sunday actuals, factoring out the Friday and Saturday results (from published dailies), since those are already known at the time of estimation. All data are from Box Office Mojo, checked against the-numbers.com when possible.

 

I think it was TMNT's OW numbers, why those fudging remarks got more frequent, not sure if it was that movie, but I am pretty sure it was in 2014

[Plain Old Tele]

"Fudge" is a really over-used phrase here. Pushing the numbers enough to really be considered dubious is rare... and when it happens, it'll be called out in the trades or Mojo as well as here. There's a reason why "Puerto Rico" is so infamous.

[terrestrial]

The Gallows    $388,495    -24%    2,720    0    $143    $20,174,736    2
Mr. Holmes    $270,697    -3%    361    --    $750    $3,582,890    1    
Max (2015)    $258,454    -4%    1,508    -580    $171    $39,008,540    4    
Ted 2    $229,390    -28%    1,582    -589    $145    $78,656,490    4    
Self/Less    $192,767    -37%    2,353    0    $82    $11,548,379    2    
Spy (2015)    $142,282    -25%    939    -518    $152    $107,339,775    7

[terrestrial]

"Fudge" is a really over-used phrase here. Pushing the numbers enough to really be considered dubious is rare... and when it happens, it'll be called out in the trades or Mojo as well as here. There's a reason why "Puerto Rico" is so infamous.

 

Is double-accounting the correct term? Counting it twice...

[terrestrial]

Ant-Man    $4,707,439    -8%    3,856    --    $1,221    $81,310,529  

[terrestrial]

Terminator Genisys    $510,048    -16%    2,815    -968    $181    $83,265,614

[Wonder Midget]

No they most certainly did not. 250-300 was the range for most predictions. Remember Batman Begins made $205m so nobody seriously thought it was going to do way north of $300m.

 

 

I wasn't posting on box office forums at the time, but when I saw the first trailer to TDK, I just had a gut feeling it would be a smash. I really liked Batman Begins-it was the first Batman film that I felt did true justice to the character, even though I liked Burton's flicks, and have a real soft spot for the TV show and 1966 movie, which turned me into the rabid movie fan that I am today-and I felt BB's WOM plus the TDK trailer would propel the film to around 320 Million or so. Then Ledger died, which despite being such a tragedy, made the GA very aware of the film. Then the buzz started building-all kinds of early reactions from Hollywood insiders said the film was spectacular, and then I saw trailer 2. I still thought 320-330, but as the early reviews poured in, I was starting to think "This could go to 400 Mil". I never dreamed it would go as high as 530 Million.

 

And it couldn't have happened to a more deserving movie.