Black Widow | July 9 2021 | ScarJo secures the bag from Disney

[Saul Goodman]

20 hours ago, john2000 said:

teaser trailer hit 40 mill

Wow that's great!

[andersonhoran]

[andersonhoran]

[Saul Goodman]

[andersonhoran]

 

[Movies4Life]

So, @Shawn, how much are we both expecting Black Widow to do domestically (opening weekend and overall) and around the world? I mean I know some people think a billion is now up in the air without China, but, I think Black Widow can make a billion with or without China, because the MCU is far popular in other places around the world like Brazil, the UK South Korea and India. I’m thinking it’ll open to $180M domestic and end with $450M domestic and $550M WW (without China) for a final cume of exactly a billion dollars. Why? Well, I have my reasons below:

 

Here are my reasons for why I believe Black Widow will make a billion and not Wonder Woman 1984:

1. More views for Black Widow’s first trailer on YouTube than Wonder Woman 1984’s first trailer (40 million compared to WW84’s 26M viewers trailer) and the only trailer for a 2020 movie to go over 40 million views, the threshold usually needed to be crossed in order for a billion dollar film to be likely. Plus, has more likes on YouTube with 1.5 million compared to WW84’s 583 thousand likes.

2. BW has had more marketing in it’s first three months (a first trailer in December, a special look and featurette during the ESPN NFC game in January, and a Big Game Super Bowl spot this current February) than WW84 (a first trailer in December and a Super Bowl spot that turned into a Tide ad). Plus, the Black Widow trailer has 207 thousand retweets compared to WW84’s 107 thousand retweets on Twitter. So, clearly that shows which of the two female led Marvel movies has more hype.

3. BW is being eventized and promoted as the start of the next post-Avengers phase of the MCU (like Iron Man 3 and Captain America: Civil War were which both made a billion worldwide) and the next era of the MCU post-Endgame.

4. It’ll attract Netflix fans with David Harbour, which got fans talking with Red Guardian and the Stranger Things Season 4 trailer with Hopper in Russia, and Disney+ fans with a special look at the movie on their service with some upcoming Disney+ release of theirs.

5. It’ll get an entirely global start (not counting China, if the CoronaVirus Crisis doesn’t get solved in time) over the first weekend of May, meaning they are trying hard to keep spoilers in bound until everyone around the world sees it, which will likely play into it opening huge, meaning it could play like Iron Man 3 or Black Panther making a billion without China before they opened in China.

6. The first Wonder Woman didn’t hit a billion with China and got banned in Lebanon because of Gal being Israeli, something that is likely to be repeated with Wonder Woman 1984.

7. Less competion for Black Widow (Scoob, The Woman in The Window) until Memorial Day Weekend with F9: The Fast Saga compared to the competion WW84 has to face a week later (Candyman, Disney and Pixar’s Soul, In The Heights and Top Gun: Maverick). And, with BW being a female-led film that could help it have a smaller drop over Mother’s Day Weekend, compared to Iron Man 3 and Cap 3.

8. It’s gonna get two more straight months of marketing with a final trailer, final poster, ticket presales following the trailer and a likely early premiere at CinemaCon at the end of March, before it’s world premiere sometime in April. So, you bet Disney’s gonna market the crap out of it to build more hype for people to see it, especially they really emphasize in the final trailer that this is the final story for Black Widow and Scarlett Johansson in the MCU period. Compare that to how WB hasn’t marketed WW84 enough, which is a problem that has caused all of their movies, not named Joker, to either flop, bomb, underperform or break even, including Birds of Prey, which is probably because of AT&T’s downsizing of the marketing department and/or the executive shuffling by way of replacing Kevin Tsujihara with Ann Sarnoff.

9. Scarlett Johansson apparently being a big overseas name that sells at the box office.

10. Marvel is the only dominant franchise on the planet still going that has committed fans, even a Reddit user group that consists of over a million followers.

That is all.

 

 

Edited February 29, 2020 by Movies4Life

[Valonqar]

that's what I've been saying since before previews, that it can make 1B w/o China. Plus COVID-19 will die down by May everywhere.

Edited February 29, 2020 by Valonqar

[Maggie]

I don't think it can do 1B without China. The scope of the movie is not big like Captain Marvel. It's just an action movie. Let's hope the virus goes away before this opens and BW gets those Chinese money

 

Of course Joker made 1B without China so anything is possible. But that one was a phenomenon

[Valonqar]

the scope is pretty big though. international location, inside the BW program, big scale action. OS should go crazy for it.

[Movies4Life]

45 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

the scope is pretty big though. international location, inside the BW program, big scale action. OS should go crazy for it.

This. 👆

[Saul Goodman]

46 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

the scope is pretty big though. international location, inside the BW program, big scale action. OS should go crazy for it.

Yeah OS markets love action thrillers like this and the Marvel brand is big enough around the world which will definitely help.  The first trailer is over 40M views already!

[Valonqar]

that's very promising! 

[XXR vs XXR]

5 hours ago, Movies4Life said:

I’m thinking it’ll open to $180M domestic

 

$130m max

[john2000]

1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:

 

$130m max

why you think so 

 

ps yeah i dont think 180 is happening

[Legion Again]

Without Corona, 120-160 imo. But considering it’s like 60 days away, really hard to say what conditions will be.  
 

Considering removing this from my MCU avg hits 1B club depending on how the situation plays out.

[lorddemaxus]

Predicting any summer release is gonna be incredibly hard at this point. We have no clue what studios are going to do. Just curious though, if Disney does decide to move this movie, what date would they move it to? 

Edited February 29, 2020 by lorddemaxus

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Predicting any summer release is gonna be incredibly hard at this point. We have no clue what studios are going to do. Just curious though, if Disney does decide to move this movie, what date would they move it to? 

I like Aug 7

[john2000]

6 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Predicting any summer release is gonna be incredibly hard at this point. We have no clue what studios are going to do. Just curious though, if Disney does decide to move this movie, what date would they move it to? 

i agree t we dont know how the situation will be by then, so its best to not make predictions for this long

Edited February 29, 2020 by john2000

[lorddemaxus]

5 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

I like Aug 7

Yeah, early August is probably the easy choice here for most movies. If school break is extended to September too, I can see another 4-quadrant blockbuster like Wonder Woman 1984 take a late August slot while F9 takes a September spot.

Edited February 29, 2020 by lorddemaxus

[lorddemaxus]

3 minutes ago, john2000 said:

i agree t we dont know how the situation will be by then, so its best to not make predictions for this long

Yeah, its speculative like most of the predictions made on this sub outside of the tracking thread.