Thursday - SS 8.2 JB 2.24 BM 2.17

[baumer]

5 minutes ago, cannastop said:

You also said that that drop would be 7% or 8% on Thursday.

 

It's clear that you're trying to imagine the best case scenario for Suicide Squad and then you're defending it as likely. It's OK. I did the exact same thing for Zootopia.

 

Here's my original post at the beginning of the week.....and as for Thursday, maybe SS did a big number.

 

1.  Monday: Suicide Squad $13.1m , Bourne $2.4m (Pg. 7) DIS GON B GUD

   Baumer loves Dory replied to iJackSparrow's topic in Numbers and Data

   Define collapse. Because its (SS) going to drop significantly on Wednesday and Thursday. Gotg fell 28 and 13% respectively. So I think we're going to have to wait for the third weekend.

   •  Tuesday at 10:21 AM
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   •  313 replies
2. 

    Monday: Suicide Squad $13.1m , Bourne $2.4m (Pg. 7) DIS GON B GUD

   Baumer loves Dory replied to iJackSparrow's topic in Numbers and Data

   Sure it is. Twitter and other social media outlets work every day of the week. I don't even think that this weekend will tell the whole story either. It's going to fall north of 60% guaranteed. Guardians of the Galaxy fell close to 60% but it recovered in the weeks to come. So I don't think this weekend's drop will tell the tale I think it will be the 3rd weekend. The third weekend drop will obviously determine whether or not it hits 300.

[baumer]

Guys, I might be a bit against the norm with the movies I like, but when it comes to numbers, I do try to be analytical and unbiased.  You guys can disagree with me, that's what this site is for, but don't say I have an agenda when siting numbers.  I've never once said that SS has great WOM.  I have said that the wom is far from as bad as BvS and as such it will probably finish with a multiplier between 2.2and 2.35....that's hardly excellent but far from toxic.  So give me a little credit.

 

Look at Dory, or Pets, two films I don't like, but find one post where I said that either one of them is doing poorly.  

 

I've been doing this stuff for about 15 years.  My film taste might differ from yours but I do try to make projections without passion or prejudice.

[The Panda]

12 minutes ago, Baumer loves Dory said:

 

When did I say that?

 

Here's three cases you made that comparison (this isn't even all of them, just three, and it only let me quote one for some reason)

On August 11, 2016 at 8:52 AM, Baumer loves Dory said:

And GOTG fell just like this and recovered on the weekend. So will SS.

 

310-335 is happening

 

In the immortal words of mr. Andrews from the Titanic, it's a mathematical certainty.

 

 

"Define collapse. Because its going to drop significantly on Wednesday and Thursday. Gotg fell 28 and 13% respectively. So I think we're going to have to wait for the third weekend."

 

"GOTG only increased 2% on tuesday and then free fell on Wednesday and thursday. So that's what I expect as well.

 

13

13

9

8

That's mon-Thurs

 

Friday: 13

Sat 17.9 (+37%)

Sun: 13.8

 

About 42-43 mill 65% drop maybe"

 

[eXtacy]

13.3 (+60%)

17.2 (+30%)

12.4 (-28%)

 

42.9m

 

Seems about right.

[Blaze Heatnix]

If SS drops 65%, that's already in line with most of the predictions ( 60-65% ).

 

The movie is performing fine. It'll be fine and we'll have or SS 2 or Harley solo movie sooner than expected ( hopefully ).

[baumer]

3 minutes ago, The Panda said:

 

Here's three cases you made that comparison (this isn't even all of them, just three, and it only let me quote one for some reason)

 

 

"Define collapse. Because its going to drop significantly on Wednesday and Thursday. Gotg fell 28 and 13% respectively. So I think we're going to have to wait for the third weekend."

 

"GOTG only increased 2% on tuesday and then free fell on Wednesday and thursday. So that's what I expect as well.

 

13

13

9

8

That's mon-Thurs

 

Friday: 13

Sat 17.9 (+37%)

Sun: 13.8

 

About 42-43 mill 65% drop maybe"

 

 

That's not comparing it to GOTG at all.  I simply stated that GOTG had shit numbers during the week and that we should wait until the third weekend before making a judgment call on SS.  

[baumer]

Sorry Panda, but that is not me comparing it to GOTG.  If you guys continue with all this, be my guest.  But I'll just wait for the numbers this weekend.

[Krissykins]

IMDb tweeting "all eyes are on Suicide Squads second weekend drop this weekend" 

 

Oh stop with this shit. 

[The Panda]

Just now, Baumer loves Dory said:

 

That's not comparing it to GOTG at all.  I simply stated that GOTG had shit numbers during the week and that we should wait until the third weekend before making a judgment call on SS.  

 

How are those not comparing it to GOTG? You used GOTG numbers to project SS's weekdays in the last one.

 

It's fine if you changed your mind and don't think it's a proper comparison now, but don't be a revisionist about it.  You used the comparison (and the comparison actually worked much better than the ones you're making now), so at least accept that.

[Olive]

Hope it falls under 40M, but not likely 

[Nova]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

IMDb tweeting "all eyes are on Suicide Squads second weekend drop this weekend" 

 

Oh stop with this shit. 

Except all eyes are on its second weekend drop. 

[baumer]

Just now, The Panda said:

 

How are those not comparing it to GOTG? You used GOTG numbers to project SS's weekdays in the last one.

 

It's fine if you changed your mind and don't think it's a proper comparison now, but don't be a revisionist about it.  You used the comparison (and the comparison actually worked much better than the ones you're making now), so at least accept that.

 

I could have easily said TMNT or Rogue Nation.  I simply sighted another film that opened on the same weekend as GOTG.  My point was that films have a pattern, not just GOTG, but films that are released this time of year.  Look at five films from the last few years......GOTG, TMNT, Rogue Nation, We're the Millers, Compton.  All had similar patterns during the week.  All of them, except GOTG had similar increases on the second weekend of August.  That's where I'm going with this.  

[RandomCat]

I've got a proven terrible track record for predictions, but still think SS will miss 50M.

[cannastop]

Just now, RandomJC said:

I've got a proven terrible track record for predictions, but still think SS will miss 50M.

Obviously that means it will pass $50m. 

[Mezmer]

Everybody talking about the second weekend drop but what if it increase? Will smith could get hit by a car and suicide squad on its way to 500m+ dom. 

[baumer]

And I have a proven terrible recent track record for clubs, which means predictions.  But these aren't predictions.  These are numbers based on what other films have done historically.  I could end up being wrong, no doubt.  But I'm just going by what other films in the last 4 years have done on the second weekend of August.  How is that me having an agenda?  When you have five films, and four of them had about the same kind of pattern, why is the odd ball of the five (GOTG) the better comparison?

[RandomCat]

2 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Obviously that means it will pass $50m. 

 

Yes, obviously.

 

I just want to feel relevant.

[baumer]

I don't mean to be argumentative with you guys.  We all love the box office, that's why we're here.  But it seems like I'm being centered out here and it grates me at times.  I'm just using history as my guide.  If I'm wrong then so be it.  But it's not an agenda.

[Ezen Baklattan]

I don't see it winning the weekend, but I can envision a scenario where Sausage Party is #1 today. This almost feels like JW/IO's opening weekend on a much smaller scale.

[The Panda]

1 minute ago, Baumer loves Dory said:

 

I could have easily said TMNT or Rogue Nation.  I simply sighted another film that opened on the same weekend as GOTG.  My point was that films have a pattern, not just GOTG, but films that are released this time of year.  Look at five films from the last few years......GOTG, TMNT, Rogue Nation, We're the Millers, Compton.  All had similar patterns during the week.  All of them, except GOTG had similar increases on the second weekend of August.  That's where I'm going with this.  

 

1.TMNT and Compton came out on Friday this time 2014 so theyre not a comparison. In regards to Friday jumps or weekdays (if you're purely meaning second weekend of August weeklies).

 

2.I was purely mentioning that you did in fact compare SS to GOTG with a few of your quotes (and you didn't mention anything about August patterns, only that you expected it to do/behave what GOTG did.  Which face it, is a direct comparison.)

 

3.We're the Millers was coming off a 28m weekend, it's going to behave differently than a fanboy centric comic book film that opened to 135m.  The weekdays are going to have a spillover effect that is common with big openers.

 

4.Rogue Nation was past its second weekend, so its drops and increases had stabilized.  It also played more torwards an adult audience than SS's teenage and college audience (all who are still out of school this week).