Weekend Numbers: Fantastic Beasts 75M, Strange 17.6M, Trolls 17.5M, Arrival 11.8M, Edge of 17 4.8M, Bleed 2.35M, Billy Lynn 930k

[filmlover]

Once you fail multiple times at predictions, and gloriously so, it might be time to consider either reconsidering your game or just retiring.

[franfar]

Lol Assassin's Creed is gonna bomb hard

 

Video game movies never do well

[chrisman0606]

8 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

 

Guardians has a shot at $200 million opening weekend imo 

I known that GOTG 2 will make over a $200 million cume in NA, but a $200 million opening weekend in North America, I do not think so.

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, SteveJaros said:

 

I don't get what's "dumb" about any of it. If I have an inkling about a movie or movie comparison, I might be moved to form a club. I don't randomly spew out numbers, I do think about it a bit, though of course I have my biases. But so what if it's wrong? Not a big deal, eh?

 

FWIW, I do think GG2 might miss $200m DOM. The first movie was very enjoyable but seemed like a one-shot kind of novelty thing to me, not sure they can recapture that same magic. Sure, the OW will be strong as it rides the wave of goodwill created by the first movie, but legs might shrivel quickly.

 

Might make a club on that but not sure yet. 

 

 

 

So you're expecting an O/W the same or barely more than it's $94m opening with BvS legs....

 

Not happening

 

[terrestrial]

2 minutes ago, chrisman0606 said:

I known that GOTG 2 will make over a $200 million cume in NA, but a $200 million opening weekend in North America, I do not think so.

Agree

 

Marvel Cinematic Universe

 

Row	Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Gross / Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Date
1	1	Avengers 1	BV	$623,357,910	4,349	$207,438,708	4,349	5/4/12
2	2	Avengers 2	BV	$459,005,868	4,276	$191,271,109	4,276	5/1/15
3	4	Captain America 3	BV	$408,084,349	4,226	$179,139,142	4,226	5/6/16
4	3	Iron Man 3	BV	$409,013,994	4,253	$174,144,585	4,253	5/3/13
5	7	Iron Man 2	Par.	$312,433,331	4,390	$128,122,480	4,380	5/7/10
6	6	Iron Man	Par.	$318,412,101	4,154	$98,618,668	4,105	5/2/08
7	8	Captain America 2	BV	$259,766,572	3,938	$95,023,721	3,938	4/4/14
8	5	Guardians of the Galaxy	BV	$333,176,600	4,088	$94,320,883	4,080	8/1/14

[RyneOh1040]

3 hours ago, Heretic said:

Actuals from UK are in, and they are amazing.

 

£15.25m OW. 9th biggest of all time, behind TFA, DH1&2, Skyfall, Spectre, JW, BD2 and QoS. 

 

 

Fantastic, Ginny!

[chrisman0606]

@terrestrial I think Infinity War in 2018 has a chance to do a $200 million opening weekend in NA because of it being a huge spectacle with various characters from the MCU fighting Thanos, and if Disney markets it very well, and the fact that the Russo bros will direct it, and among others will erase the bad taste of AOU.

Edited November 21, 2016 by chrisman0606

[MrFanaticGuy34]

 

SteveJaros haven't commented/answered to any of us, yet.

 

Hey, Steve! Don't be a pussy and comment to us. What we are saying about you and your clubs, are true. Don't chicken out.

[iHeartJames]

1 minute ago, chrisman0606 said:

@terrestrial I think Infinity War in 2018 has a chance to do a $200 million opening weekend in NA because of it being a huge spectacle with various characters from the MCU fighting Thanos, and if Disney markets it very well, and the fact that the Russo bros will direct it, and among others will erase the bad taste of AOU.

I kinda think the "bad taste" of AOU was already erased with Civil War 

[Jonwo]

FB was always going to do great in the UK since its the Potter homeland but big films based on British characters tend to over perform in the UK like Bridget Jones, The BFG, The Jungle Book etc 

 

 

 

[yjs]

1 hour ago, SteveJaros said:

I don't get what's "dumb" about any of it. If I have an inkling about a movie or movie comparison, I might be moved to form a club. I don't randomly spew out numbers, I do think about it a bit, though of course I have my biases. But so what if it's wrong? Not a big deal, eh?

well, we cannot really stop you from doing whatever you want to, make way-off predictions mostly based on your guts and feelings, then brush it off as if it is nothing when you are proven wrong big times.

 

Just do what you must, but we cannot take you too seriously because this is actually a box office forum where most of the users are a bit more invested that that and most of us put some actual effort, call it a weird elitism or a complete waste of time or not, studying actual data and tracking previous records, worshiping Rth and stuff. So your disconnected, distinctively light approach to all this feels somewhat like a slap on the face a little bit. Kinda like having a drunk uncle over at the dinner table where we discuss NFL players and he goes "naah Tom Brady sucks cause I don't like his face, he won't do well. I like Johnny Manziel more and thinks he is a much better player."

Edited November 21, 2016 by yjs

[parkerthegreat]

46 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Agree

 

Marvel Cinematic Universe

 

Row	Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Gross / Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Date
1	1	Avengers 1	BV	$623,357,910	4,349	$207,438,708	4,349	5/4/12
2	2	Avengers 2	BV	$459,005,868	4,276	$191,271,109	4,276	5/1/15
3	4	Captain America 3	BV	$408,084,349	4,226	$179,139,142	4,226	5/6/16
4	3	Iron Man 3	BV	$409,013,994	4,253	$174,144,585	4,253	5/3/13
5	7	Iron Man 2	Par.	$312,433,331	4,390	$128,122,480	4,380	5/7/10
6	6	Iron Man	Par.	$318,412,101	4,154	$98,618,668	4,105	5/2/08
7	8	Captain America 2	BV	$259,766,572	3,938	$95,023,721	3,938	4/4/14
8	5	Guardians of the Galaxy	BV	$333,176,600	4,088	$94,320,883	4,080	8/1/14

So any opening over $95m would automatically make it the biggest Marvel film (on OW at least) to not include Iron Man, correct?

Edited November 21, 2016 by parkerthegreat

[narniadis]

2 minutes ago, parkerthegreat said:

So any opening over $95m would automatically make it the biggest Marvel film (on OW at least) to not include Iron Man, correct?

 

Yes

[wildphantom]

57 minutes ago, chrisman0606 said:

I known that GOTG 2 will make over a $200 million cume in NA, but a $200 million opening weekend in North America, I do not think so.

 

I think it's absolutely got a shot at $150 million plus. The first one hit a chord with people that not many films have in recent years. I definitely seeing it opening to around what Civil War did. 

 

We shall see!

Edited November 21, 2016 by wildphantom

[MrFanaticGuy34]

1 hour ago, fracfar said:

Lol Assassin's Creed is gonna bomb hard

 

Video game movies never do well

 

What about the Angry Birds movie?  That one says hi.

 

It did $349M WW on a $73M budget. That didn't bomb.

[chasmmi]

12 minutes ago, parkerthegreat said:

So any opening over $95m would automatically make it the biggest Marvel film (on OW at least) to not include Iron Man, correct?

 

I'm ready now for this to open to $150M only to have ironman pop up in the post credits to advertise Infinity War and thus hand the title back to Winter Solider on a technicality

[Lumos]

47 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

FB was always going to do great in the UK since its the Potter homeland but big films based on British characters tend to over perform in the UK like Bridget Jones, The BFG, The Jungle Book etc 

 

 

 

What's most impressive is how much its retained the audience in the UK. Fantastic Beasts opened to 64% of what DH2 made in the UK....in North America it only opened to 44% of DH2 numbers.

Edited November 21, 2016 by Lumos

[terrestrial]

4 minutes ago, chasmmi said:

I'm ready now for this to open to $150M only to have ironman pop up in the post credits to advertise Infinity War and thus hand the title back to Winter Solider on a technicality

O mei o mei, I sooooo can imagine that kind of nagging... aehm 'discussion' going for years to come

[Arlborn]

1 hour ago, terrestrial said:

Agree

 

Marvel Cinematic Universe

 

Row	Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Gross / Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Date
1	1	Avengers 1	BV	$623,357,910	4,349	$207,438,708	4,349	5/4/12
2	2	Avengers 2	BV	$459,005,868	4,276	$191,271,109	4,276	5/1/15
3	4	Captain America 3	BV	$408,084,349	4,226	$179,139,142	4,226	5/6/16
4	3	Iron Man 3	BV	$409,013,994	4,253	$174,144,585	4,253	5/3/13
5	7	Iron Man 2	Par.	$312,433,331	4,390	$128,122,480	4,380	5/7/10
6	6	Iron Man	Par.	$318,412,101	4,154	$98,618,668	4,105	5/2/08
7	8	Captain America 2	BV	$259,766,572	3,938	$95,023,721	3,938	4/4/14
8	5	Guardians of the Galaxy	BV	$333,176,600	4,088	$94,320,883	4,080	8/1/14

I'm still amazed that Civil War had worse legs than Iron Man 3 and ended up lower.

[terrestrial]

Actuals are dripping in (the small ones)

 

Bleed for This	Open Road	$2,366,810		1,549	$1,528	$2,366,810
I Am not Madame Bovary	Well Go USA	$181,552		38	$4,778	$181,552
Operation Mekong	Well Go USA	$2,367	-23%	1	$2,367	$799,607
Aquarius	Vitagraph Films	$11,415	-59%	20	$571	$285,930