ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

[trifle]

1 minute ago, DeeCee said:

I'm joking. Clearly something like that is hardly going to be in the movie. 

[MattW]

12 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

RO will make 70 to 80 million on 25th and 26th alone.

I think more like 55m those 2 days. 

[Captain H]

Oomph, with $150m+ OW, the domestic crown might as well be bygones for Dory. Also, with Sing being the only one of the new openers next Wednesday that seemed to be of any worth (Not that I'm gonna skip Passengers :P), Rogue One's legs might be better than expected.

[Ozymandias]

57 minutes ago, Doctor RTH gone Rouge said:

 

just realised flaw , 69—73

 

Ah, just came back in from BBQing Chicken on the deck and this is what I like to see.

[MovieMan89]

When will Deadline update? Rth's fuckery with us has got me all discombobulated. 

[DAR]

12 minutes ago, robertman2 said:

What do Bothans look like?

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

LucasFilm coming for that DOM crown repeat, Dory.

 

 

Fuck that stupid blue fish.

 

[Chewy]

Just now, DAR said:

 

Lookin like Master Splinter

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Just now, Chewy said:

 

Lookin like Master Splinter

Funny you should say that, he was based on a bothan. TMNT's creators were huge SW fans.

Spoiler

Totally bullshitting right now.

 

[DAJK]

edit: dang not sure why it wasn't working there

Edited December 17, 2016 by DAJK

[Lordmandeep]

6 minutes ago, MattW said:

I think more like 55m those 2 days. 

It depends...

 

I think RO won't fall to much of  x ma's eve as normal films and not increase as much percentage wise on 25th.

 

Happened to sw7..

 

However with boxing day on Monday it will likely increase from x mas.

 

 

Remember sw7 had a 56 million 2nd Saturday on its 26th insane.

Edited December 17, 2016 by Lordmandeep

[JonathanLB]

17 minutes ago, junkshop36 said:

 

Yea sorry, but if it does 150m OW it's not having a 2.8x in December. Even movies with mediocre to decent WOM get multis in the 3-3.5 range. With that opening it would not do less than 450m total. 

 

Well the problem with his math there is pretty obvious. He must think it's summer. If it opens with $150M, right, how the hell does it manage to hit only $185M after 7 days? So 4 weekdays that almost everyone has off are good for $35M? HAHAHA are you joking? Force Awakens cleared that in its first MONDAY alone. Now this is no TFA, obviously, I don't think I need to restate that, but $150M is a hell of a lot more than half of what TFA made OW, so if TFA added $142.86 million in its next 4 days after OW -- when one of those days is one of the WORST box office days of the year, Christmas Eve, keep in mind -- then Rogue One is going to add $75-80M in its first four weekdays. Bank on that. That puts you at a first week total of $225M or higher, NOT $185-200M, so there's the first of your math problems. I'm assuming the fuzzy math continues for the next week of week days, which as we all know are box office gold weekdays too. Thus, the December multiplier. Tsk tsk, so quickly people forget how this works from last year. Even half the TFA weekdays would yield great numbers.

[MovieMan89]

R1 will be new territory for the box office. It's the first December movie opening to 130m+ that's not a giant phenomenon anomaly like TFA. So basically no one knows jack shit about what the multi could do. You can make just as strong of a case (if not stronger) for it performing like your typical 130m+ opener as you can for it performing like your typical sub 75m December opener. 

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Leaving for my 2nd showing in 20-30 minutes.

 

Probably gonna have to drive @MrPink home because he thinks I'm his personal Uber driver 

 

Edited December 17, 2016 by Jayhawk

[Daxtreme]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

R1 will be new territory for the box office. It's the first December movie opening to 130m+ that's not a giant phenomenon anomaly like TFA. So basically no one knows jack shit about what the multi could do. You can make just as strong of a case (if not stronger) for it performing like your typical 130m+ opener as you can for it performing like your typical sub 75m December opener. 

 

Even giant openers in the summer like JW and The Avengers had to cope with the basic rules of how summer box office works.

 

Summer box office works 1 way, Holiday box office works another way. Doesn't matter the size of the opening, although it does play into it a bit. Holiday box office WILL mean better legs, no matter what happens.

[EmpireCity]

RTH throwing out that up to $73m range and it is only 5pm on the West Coast.  

 

Going to be an interesting night.  =)

[EmpireCity]

4 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

Again, based on anecdotal evidence I can see and some that Rallax has, I could see the number surprising tonight and hitting mid $70's for Friday.  

 

Depends on weather and other factors, but there are a shitload of presales and now walk up business that was not on Thursday night.  Signs are pointing to the being non-front loaded.  

 

@Christmas Baumer might need to get props from me on this performing more like a spin off like Fantastic Beasts did where the preview number is big but not overwhelming but the true Friday number is bigger than expected.  

 

**rubs hands together and smiles**

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Just now, EmpireCity said:

RTH throwing out that up to $73m range and it is only 5pm on the West Coast.  

 

Going to be an interesting night.  =)

Especially when he said that earlier in the afternoon the upper part of the range was 65m. Sometimes (not all the time), these things have a tendency to just keep going up and up and up.

[WrathOfHan]

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thnx m8s

[DAR]

I wonder if Christmas Day could be bigger than expected since the majority of the NFL is playing Christmas Eve