ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

[cannastop]

14 minutes ago, babz06 said:

So you're predicting that it barely beats Joy and under Mag 7? Really guys? lol 

Passengers is doing atleast 100m.  

Yeah, I am. People are more excited about freaking La La Land.

[cannastop]

14 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Possibility, yes. Likely, 400. But this board doesn't even seem to be thinking 200 which is asinine. 

People are just ignoring it because it's not for their demographic. Kind of like Zootopia.

 

BTW, I think that $350m dom is more the target for Lego Batman.

[Cochofles]

 

18 minutes ago, babz06 said:

So you're predicting that it barely beats Joy and under Mag 7? Really guys? lol 

Passengers is doing atleast 100m.  

 

Worldwide, yes.

Flop incoming.

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Lordmandeep said:

Rogue one 155 opening shows Star wars is domestic king of all franchises.

 

 

[Deep Wang]

1 hour ago, hw64 said:

 

I wasn't aware I'd been wrong about anything yet, or that I'd made any sort of concrete predictions (here) that even enabled me to be wrong.

 

Well, maybe a few. I said that the ratio between Australian opening weekend in AUD to US opening weekend in USD would increase for Rogue One from the 1:9.1 ratio that TFA had. Given the numbers we have now ($10m opening weekend in Aus = $15m AUD ish), that ratio is 15:155 = 1:10.3, so I was right.

 

I also said that its previews multiplier would be far less than Civil War's or BvS's. Rogue One has a 5.34 multiplier compared to BvS's 5.99 and Civil War's 7.16, and I was right there too. @Daxtreme, who liked your post, was seriously entertaining the possibility of a multiplier in the ballpark of those two, so he's got not legs to stand on. As far as I can tell he hasn't gotten anything right in the past few weeks.

 

In general, if I'm making predictions, it's not going to be on here though, so there's not much I've said concretely.

 

What have you been correct about in the past two weeks?

 

You mean like how using data available, I showed that previews of 25m or more, this movie was far more likely to open in the range of Catching Fire than it was Twiligiht, which I think you were even lower than that, or was that just James?

[4815162342]

@Jayhawk I'm most likely seeing Rogue One on Tuesday evening for viewing #2. You can thank me for helping your holiday weekday strategy.

[Wrath]

I loved Lego movie, and I think Lego Batman is getting underestimated. That having been said, calling for a 300million floor before we know if its any good seems optimistic.

Edited December 18, 2016 by Wrath

[That One Girl]

Logan will open higher than Deadpool.  Mark my words.

[RandomCat]

4 hours ago, RascarCapat said:

Yes I know this is still an estimation.

I will update it when we have the actuals but here it is.

 

How to read it :

 

Underligned Blue : WINRAR

Blue : Very Close (-/+ 5M)

Green : Close (+/- 10M)

Yellow : Meh (+/- 20M

Red : Bad (+/- 30M)

Pink : Lol (Worst than +/- 30M)

 

 

OW

RandomJC 120M

 

 

 

Wow. Don't remember that. Glad I changed it for the derby. >.<

[Jake Gittes]

I do hope Lego Batman at least matches Minions domestically (thereby outgrossing BVS and SS at the same time). And with a good enough reception, I'll actually be disappointed if it fails to do that. 

[That One Girl]

Alright, we're close enough to January, so here are my predictions for the month .

 

underworld 5 - 18/40

A Monster Calls - 7/28

Hidden Figures - 20/75

Bye Bye Man - 8/16

Monster Trucks - 300/1B 15/45

Sleepless - 7/18

Live by Night - 20/60

Patriots Day - 18/65

The Founder - 5/12

Resurrection of Gavin Stone - 1.5/3

Split - 35/105

xXx 3 - 25/55

Bastards - 6/15

A Dog's Purpose - 15/70

Gold - 6/15

Resident Evil 7 - 20/45

[MattW]

8 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Logan will open higher than Deadpool.  Mark my words.

Im willing to bet against you. One month of gold?

[trifle]

24 minutes ago, Cochofles said:

 

 

Worldwide, yes.

Flop incoming.

 

My bet to you that it will do at least $330m worldwide, loser to donate $50 to the forums is still open for you.  You say stuff like this; I'd think you'd be eager to take my bet.

[XXR & Friends]

7 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Logan will open higher than Deadpool.  Mark my words.

No shot. The last Wolverine stand alone had a domestic TOTAL lower than Deadpool's opening weekend. Logan will do maybe $75 million OW. 

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:

No shot. The last Wolverine stand alone had a domestic TOTAL lower than Deadpool's opening weekend. Logan will do maybe $75 million OW. 

 

"No shot."  Like Deadpool had no shot to make more than Batman v. Superman?

Nothing is impossible.  Logan has gained massive praise for its trailer.  There is tangible hype for it. 

[Kalo]

57 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

You don't think Thor will? Thor 2 did $95 million, I can't see this missing with the Hulk in it. 

 

Thor 2 did $85m opening weekend and is widely considered the worst film in the MCU. I think Thor 3 will be a great film, and the Hulk will push it up abit, but I think it will hold better, $100m opening is possible though.

[XXR & Friends]

3 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

"No shot."  Like Deadpool had no shot to make more than Batman v. Superman?

Nothing is impossible.  Logan has gained massive praise for its trailer.  There is tangible hype for it. 

I don't follow trailer hype. 50 Shades had more views than AOU, Beauty and the Beast had more in 24 hours than TFA. Comic book movies always have large trailer views and hype. There have been 8 X-Men/Wolverine films and none has made more than $235 million domestic. Logan isn't doing $130 million more than that. 

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:

I don't follow trailer hype. 50 Shades had more views than AOU, Beauty and the Beast had more in 24 hours than TFA. Comic book movies always have large trailer views and hype. There have been 8 X-Men/Wolverine films and none has made more than $235 million domestic. Logan isn't doing $130 million more than that. 

 

Yeah, and BatB is going to be a massive hit.  50 Shades was a massive hit in its own right.  Your point?

 

And as it has been shown, when X-Men strays away from its typical formula (Deadpool), it makes loads of cash.

[Lordmandeep]

2 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

I don't follow trailer hype. 50 Shades had more views than AOU, Beauty and the Beast had more in 24 hours than TFA. Comic book movies always have large trailer views and hype. There have been 8 X-Men/Wolverine films and none has made more than $235 million domestic. Logan isn't doing $130 million more than that. 

 

 

RO had far less then many films and will beat their totals in 10-12 days domestically 

[XXR & Friends]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

 

Yeah, and BatB is going to be a massive hit.  50 Shades was a massive hit in its own right.  Your point?

 

And as it has been shown, when X-Men strays away from its typical formula (Deadpool), it makes loads of cash.

Neither of those films beat/will beat the others that they had more views than, so trailer hype isn't a formula for box office. 

Deadpool is an outlier. It was totally different than any other CBM. Logan won't be. It'll be fairly close to what we've already seen. I'll bet it doesn't do $250 million.