Cmasterclay Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Shaping up to be a fairly strong season, at least compared to last year. Through the first Friday of the festival season, we already have three legit Best Pic winner contenders (Dunkirk, Shape of Water, Call Me By Your Name) and two other fairly strong nominees (Get Out, Mudbound). Darkest Hour really surprised me with these reviews and has improved its stock, ditto Lady Bird, You Were Never Really Here, and Florida Project. Blockbusters have way more buzz as contenders this year in WW and Apes, even if I think that's more publicity over the push than actual credibility. Detroit and Big Sick are still distant but not dead contenders to get noms from the first part of the year. The Post and Last Flag Flying seem like super strong contenders. I'd bet on one of Roman Israel/Blade Runner/Wonder Wheel or even something out of left field like Snowman or Molly's Game going from fringe contender to legit player. mother! and Downsizing are what I always expected - love it or leave it types that could wrack up other noms but will miss out, but I'll wait on official reviews for mama before ruling it out. And even though the questionable release date + prestige director doing a niche topic reeks of Silence, I wouldn't rule out Phantom Thread just yet. It's a PTA/Daniel Day Lewis movie, if it comes out, there's something. Hell, even Ridley got a joint still to drop this year. So far, Suborbicon and Wonderstruck seem to be the only whiffs (and they're more eh than bad). They're coming, though. Wait till Breathe and Stronger. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinaTakla Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 28 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said: Shaping up to be a fairly strong season, at least compared to last year. Through the first Friday of the festival season, we already have three legit Best Pic winner contenders (Dunkirk, Shape of Water, Call Me By Your Name) and two other fairly strong nominees (Get Out, Mudbound). Darkest Hour really surprised me with these reviews and has improved its stock, ditto Lady Bird, You Were Never Really Here, and Florida Project. Blockbusters have way more buzz as contenders this year in WW and Apes, even if I think that's more publicity over the push than actual credibility. Detroit and Big Sick are still distant but not dead contenders to get noms from the first part of the year. The Post and Last Flag Flying seem like super strong contenders. I'd bet on one of Roman Israel/Blade Runner/Wonder Wheel or even something out of left field like Snowman or Molly's Game going from fringe contender to legit player. mother! and Downsizing are what I always expected - love it or leave it types that could wrack up other noms but will miss out, but I'll wait on official reviews for mama before ruling it out. And even though the questionable release date + prestige director doing a niche topic reeks of Silence, I wouldn't rule out Phantom Thread just yet. It's a PTA/Daniel Day Lewis movie, if it comes out, there's something. Hell, even Ridley got a joint still to drop this year. So far, Suborbicon and Wonderstruck seem to be the only whiffs (and they're more eh than bad). They're coming, though. Wait till Breathe and Stronger. Good thoughts overall. I still have Mudbound getting nothing because of Netflix. Molly's Game is something I have right outside of Actress and Adapted Screenplay, but maybe it'll go places if it's very good and STX doesn't suck at campaigning. I was actually thinking yesterday if Rebecca Ferguson could go anywhere for The Snowman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: Good thoughts overall. I still have Mudbound getting nothing because of Netflix. Molly's Game is something I have right outside of Actress and Adapted Screenplay, but maybe it'll go places if it's very good and STX doesn't suck at campaigning. I was actually thinking yesterday if Rebecca Ferguson could go anywhere for The Snowman. Yea if Mudbound had a normal release I'd be predicting it for Picture/Director and both supporting categories. I do still have Mitchell and Blige getting in as of now. As for Ferguson.....maybe but probably not. It's a fairly interesting and showy part in the books, but I'm not really feeling it as a contender instead of a commercial play (same with Blade Runner and Mountain Between, Molly's Game is going nowhere IMO). Worth listing it, though. I think Roman Israel and Wonder Wheel do have real breakout contender credibility from that list, though. Love you Denzel. Fuck you, Woody. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 I just thought of an unfortunate thought. If Fox is planning as big a push for War for the Planet of the Apes as we think they are... then doesn't that diminish Logan's chances. Granted, skeptics already think both of them have zero chance, but this still might hurt Logan, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Is Amazon going to give The Lost City of Z any kind of a push at all? It's probably a little too classical and leisurely paced to become a fashionable awards season player, even if there was no Weinstein to bury it beforehand, but at the very least it could get a Cinematography nod (it's still the most gorgeous movie of the year) and maybe production/costume design. With James Gray, any recognition would be something. As far as cinematography goes I hope they don't sleep on Vittorio Storaro's work with Woody this year as well. If Café Society was any indication, Wonder Wheel is bound to look amazing. (I also hope the rumors about Jim Belushi being a legit supporting actor contender are true, he'd be having a hell of a year with that & getting to play one of the best characters on Twin Peaks.) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinaTakla Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Girl Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Lost City of Z should've been given a November release. It probably would've gotten in if Amazon didn't bury it in April. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 I don't think The Lost City of Z would've gone anywhere even if it had been released later in the year. A lone Cinematography nom, maybe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said: Is Amazon going to give The Lost City of Z any kind of a push at all? It's probably a little too classical and leisurely paced to become a fashionable awards season player, even if there was no Weinstein to bury it beforehand, but at the very least it could get a Cinematography nod (it's still the most gorgeous movie of the year) and maybe production/costume design. With James Gray, any recognition would be something. As far as cinematography goes I hope they don't sleep on Vittorio Storaro's work with Woody this year as well. If Café Society was any indication, Wonder Wheel is bound to look amazing. (I also hope the rumors about Jim Belushi being a legit supporting actor contender are true, he'd be having a hell of a year with that & getting to play one of the best characters on Twin Peaks.) I'd love to see Justin Timberlake get an acting nomination Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, That One Guy said: Lost City of Z should've been given a November release. It probably would've gotten in if Amazon didn't bury it in April. It would have had to wait over a year since it premiered at NYFF last October. And last year was definitely too packed for it to make any impact, it would have had the same fate as Silence except with 0 nominations instead of 1. No ideal way to push it, really, coupled with the fact that the movie itself is not at all interested in pandering to awards voters even though on the surface it looks like something they'd be into. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 i don't think downsizing is out yet. some people do love it. and the academy have real payne boners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: I'd love to see Justin Timberlake get an acting nomination If both him and Hammer got in that would finally mean recognition for all three snubbed supporting actors from The Social Network 7 years later 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 james gray feels like a kenneth lonergan or linklater or wes anderson type deal where he's gonna be ignored for ages and then suddenly break out big with the academy with one movie. maybe that sci-fi he's filming with BP rn could make some waves next year. the premise Quote Twenty years after his father left on a one-way mission to Neptune in order to find signs of extra-terrestrial intelligence, McBride travels through the solar system to find him and understand why his mission failed. ... just sounds like a space version of Lost City of Z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Supporting Actor is a mess right now. There's like 8 people with a good shot at getting in. At least we can probably rule out Mark Rylance for a role that had really little to it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 49 minutes ago, slambros said: I just thought of an unfortunate thought. If Fox is planning as big a push for War for the Planet of the Apes as we think they are... then doesn't that diminish Logan's chances. Granted, skeptics already think both of them have zero chance, but this still might hurt Logan, right? They should push one or the other. Personally think Logan is their better shot, but I doubt they can push both. Leaning on WW being the potential blockbuster pick now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 54 minutes ago, slambros said: I just thought of an unfortunate thought. If Fox is planning as big a push for War for the Planet of the Apes as we think they are... then doesn't that diminish Logan's chances. Granted, skeptics already think both of them have zero chance, but this still might hurt Logan, right? In a mechanical way every movie getting a campaign reduce every other movie chance if they are a bit similar, Apes and Logan are quite similar (bleak serious blockbuster), so I would yes it hurt Logan chance, Star Wars chance if it is good, Wonder Woman chance, etcv... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rorschach Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 10 hours ago, CoolioD1 said: Not even a VFX nom 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 8 hours ago, CoolioD1 said: i don't think downsizing is out yet. some people do love it. and the academy have real payne boners. I agree. While some people do say that it is mixed, the film's current Metacritic score (84-ish - stuff like Birdman had a score around that number) leaves little evidence that the reception is mixed enough to cause substantial damage- to me, at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joel M Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Downsizing reception would be a problem for someone else but not Payne. They love him and he's gonna be a priority for oscar voters above all the blockbusters that allegedly have a shot (even though outside of Get Out, they don't). What can really hurt his chances is the movie flat out bombing ala Steve Jobs since it has a very big budget. And even then he can still score another screenplay nomination. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
