The Panda Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Kaluuya would be a great BA nom, it's not an overly showy role though for the academy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, The Pumpkin Spice Panda said: Kaluuya would be a great BA nom, it's not an overly showy role though for the academy. If only Universal had another Actor to campaign for........ Edited October 28, 2017 by WrathOfHan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 21 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: If only Universal had another Actor to campaign for........ Kaluuya will get in before McAvoy does Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Watch McAvoy become this year's random SAG nominee ala Emily Blunt last year. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Loves Rey Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 With one more week until Lady Bird (and to a lesser extent Last Flag) starts the Oscar box office season, here's just one more look at where I think the race is heading. Again, if I don't mention a movie, you can assume that I think it's dead. Big Sick: I don't see it as a Best Picture nominee. The competition is super fierce, and the film seems too small to really make huge noise. But Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay seem really good. Blade Runner 2049: I would be more confident if its box office was more impressive, but I think Adapted Screenplay and Director are pretty likely. Call Me By Your Name: Picture, Adapted Screenplay, and Actor are locks (hush Jake). Director is pretty likely Supporting Actor is iffy, but I think both Hammer and Stuhlbarg will find a way in, thanks to their performances and the strength of the film itself. Darkest Hour: Oldman's locked for the win. Picture and Screenplay are likely, and I feel Kristen Scott Thomas could ride on the film's coattails for Supporting Actress. The category's weak, and I'm sure she has at least one decent scene to make her a possibility. Disaster Artist: Franco and Adapted Screenplay will be the only noms. Dunkirk: Picture and Director are locks, but that's really about it. Florida Project: DaFoe's still an easy nominee, but I'm now even less certain on the film. Box office is only okay thus far, and Prince has been moved to a competitve Actress field, and Director's the only other non-Picture nominee I can see the movie turn up in. Lady Bird still seems like a safer bet. I do have it as an alt though, if Lady Bird or I, Tonya disappoint at the box office. Get Out: Everyday, this movie looks stronger and stronger. Original Screenplay and Picture are locks, and I think Kaluuya has a really strong chance for a Best Actor nomination. The Academy isn't against non-showy performances in the past (see Casey Affleck), and the film itself has garnered acclaim and box office, to the point where it's still talked about and I'd assume every Academy member has already seen it. Add on strong chances for nominations at the Globes and BAFTAs, and an empty Best Actor field (Stronger bombed, Breathe did even worse, Roman Israel probably can't reverse its previous reception, and Tom Hanks has been snubbed many times in the past couple of years), I think Kaluuya can ride on the movie's coattails. Peele? Not as much, but I can see a scenario where he gets in for Director. I, Tonya: Actress? Lock for nomination. Supporting Actress? Lock for win. Picture? Not confident, but I can see it as a lower-tier nominee. Lady Bird: Orignal Screenplay? Likely Actress? Very likely. Supporting Actress? Lock for nomination. Picture? Not as confident as I was before, but it definitely has the potential. Last Flag Flying: Adapted Screenplay's weak, so maybe this can find a way in there, but that's about it. Molly's Game: Actress? It's Chastain vs. Ronan vs. Dench for the last spot. Adapted Screenplay's a lock though. Shape of Water: Picture, Director, Actress, and Supporting Actress are guarantees. Screenplay's super likely too. In terms of Supporting Actor, between Shannon and Jenkins, I'm going with Shannon, if only because he's a bigger name, but I wouldn't be shocked if Jenkins beats him. Three Billboards: I think this will sweep the night. Wins in Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, and Original Screenplay, with a Director nomination. Victoria & Abdul: Dench has a good shot, thanks to her film's box office, but I'm more partial to Chastain or Ronan. The nominees: Best Picture: 1. Three Billboards 2. Call Me By Your Name 3. The Shape of Water 4. Dunkirk 5. Get Out 6. The Post 7. Darkest Hour 8. I, Tonya 9. Lady Bird ALT: The Florida Project Best Director: 1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk 2. Guillermo del Toro, Shape of Water 3. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards 4. Luca Guadaningo, CMBYN 5. Denis Villenuve, Blade Runner 2049 ALT: Steven Spielberg, The Post Best Actor: 1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour 2. Timothee Chalamet, CMBYN 3. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread 4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist 5. Tom Hanks, The Post ALT: Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out Best Actress: 1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards 2. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya 3. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water 4. Meryl Streep, The Post 5. Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game ALT: Saorise Ronan, Lady Bird Best Supporting Actor: 1. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards 2. Willem DaFoe, The Florida Project 3. Michael Stuhlbarg, CMBYN 4. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water 5. Armie Hammer, CMBYN ALT: Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water Best Supporting Actress: 1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya 2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird 3. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water 4. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick 5. Kristen Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour ALT: Mellissa Leo, Notivate Best Original Screenplay: 1. Three Billboards 2. Get Out 3. The Shape of Water 4. Lady Bird 5. The Big Sick ALT: Darkest Hour Best Adapted Screenplay: 1. Call Me By Your Name 2. Molly's Game 3. The Disaster Artist 4. The Post 5. Last Flag Flying ALT: Mudbound 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 34 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said: Call Me By Your Name: Picture, Adapted Screenplay, and Actor are locks (hush Jake). Ironically this is one of your few "locked" takes I agree with. Well, if "locked" means "as close to locked as it gets pre-nominations", just like how say Amy Adams last year was locked until oops. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 i could see gary oldman not winning. i mean are people actually enthusiastic about it? it seems like the reactions are less "this is a great performance!" and more "this is the kind of performance that wins an oscar in a functional movie!" 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 (edited) Well, Di Caprio won for dumber reasons and the competition this year isn't much better. They'll give it to him for his career if nothing else. Chalamet pulling an Adrien Brody, or DDL delivering such an all-timer of a performance that they can't help but reward him again are both fun possibilities but pretty unlikely. Other people's chances are even smaller. For now I pretty much just hope to see Dafoe, James Ivory and Deakins win theirs. Don't have horses in any other races. Edited October 28, 2017 by Jake Gittes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 I feel like Darkest Hour is gonna end up on the fringes of the Best Picture line-up due to not having nearly as much passion as other contenders but I still see Best Actor as being Oldman's to lose at the moment. He's lucky in a way that his only competition are a college-aged dude and previous winners. If Darkest Hour does end up missing then he definitely won't be an "undeniable" frontrunner, and it's been eight years since the last time Best Actor went to someone in a film that wasn't up for the top prize (Jeff Bridges, the year the line-up expanded), so who knows. Chalamet winning would certainly be history-making. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XC-TF Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 I think Oldman is all but a lock. And guess what? It looks like he'll be great in it but that doesn't seem like a big surprise. Just a general question to you more veteran posters here: have you all seen these films? I've seen some of them but others I've missed out on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan Hunt Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 19 minutes ago, XC-TF said: I think Oldman is all but a lock. And guess what? It looks like he'll be great in it but that doesn't seem like a big surprise. Just a general question to you more veteran posters here: have you all seen these films? I've seen some of them but others I've missed out on. well these films is a very broad phrase Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BirdMan Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Can a movie not about sexuality/race/politics/Hollywood win ? or must they send a message every year ? a Lady Bird win would be very refreshing for example 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 7 hours ago, BirdMan said: Can a movie not about sexuality/race/politics/Hollywood win ? or must they send a message every year ? a Lady Bird win would be very refreshing for example Can you make a post not attacking movies that talk about issues? or must you send a message every post? It would be very refreshing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BirdMan Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 On 10/28/2017 at 8:58 PM, filmlover said: Watch McAvoy become this year's random SAG nominee ala Emily Blunt last year. He was not as bad as blunt tbh , the movie was ok too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 22 hours ago, filmlover said: Chalamet winning would certainly be history-making. If he wins that would be back to back best actor oscars for Matthew mcconaughey's son in Interstellar. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 10 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said: If he wins that would be back to back best actor oscars for Matthew mcconaughey's son in Interstellar. The forgotten child's greatest revenge 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Safeno Rdz Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Early bold predictions: - Three Billboards wins BP and Screenplay - Get out doesn't get a BP nomination - Dunkirk gets Best director and best edition and a few other technical - Franco doesn't get a BA nomination Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 7 hours ago, Safeno Rdz said: Early bold predictions: - Franco doesn't get a BA nomination That's not really a bold prediction, though I have him as #6 right now. We'll see if Hanks gets overlooked again. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 http://www.indiewire.com/2017/10/petition-ban-casey-affleck-oscars-1201892821/ A petition is going around asking to ban Casey Affleck from doing his duties of presenting Best Actress this year (being the latest Best Actor winner), but I doubt anything comes of it unless a bomb drops between now and the end of February. There's been nothing to add to his previous allegations so it would just look very witch hunt-ish on their part. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 he should just pull an adrien brody and make sure to be as CREEPY AS POSSIBLE when he presents. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
