WEEKEND THREAD | Official Weekend Estimates: Beauty and the Beast - 88.3M; Power Rangers - 40.5M; Life - 12.6M; Other Numbers First Post. Gokira has been threadbanned.

[johnboy3434]

So, of the three factors statistically shown to correlate with good legs (high Youtube trailer views, good Cinemascore, high RT user score), Power Rangers has hit all three. Hopefully that translates into better staying power than we expected.

[Catty]

I just popped in before going to sleep for numbers & now I'm not even sleepy anymore because I am laughing so hard at the meltdown!

[grim22]

2 minutes ago, johnboy3434 said:

So, of the three factors statistically shown to correlate with good legs (high Youtube trailer views, good Cinemascore, high RT user score), Power Rangers has hit all three. Hopefully that translates into better staying power than we expected.

 

High youtube views should actually lead to a big OW, not legs. Legs are more of the CS and RT user score.

[Noctis]

I'm a little disappointed with $22m.

[Barnack]

2 hours ago, TelemAAchos said:

The worldwide gross is (largely) irrelevant to Lionsgate, given their approach. 

 

For that movie result (depending if they get some form of bonus pass a certain point, I'm not certainly sure how it work, Deadline la la land revenue estimate has 2 different foreign line that make it look life if something like that was in play) yes, but it must change the ability and how much they can get for future release, specially for a movie with planned sequel that must make it relevant, the performance of the movie will influence a lot the sales of the next, enough to make a difference between greenlighting it or not.

[POTUS 2020]

1 hour ago, UrosepsisFace said:

You need to understand different films draw different audiences, and as such, each audience has a different criteria for what makes a good movie.

 

That said, movies are not objectively good or bad. This all depends on your own background and perspective. People aren't stupid; they're just different.

More and more I see adult dramas with decent RT scores get poor audience scores and the BO reflects it. For the first  time ever the entire Top Ten last year was toons and tights. 

Yeah the general audience isn't getting any smarter over the decades.

 

1986

1	Top Gun	Par.	$176,781,728	1,531	$8,193,052	1,028	5/16
2	Crocodile Dundee	Par.	$174,803,506	1,495	$8,038,855	879	9/26
3	Platoon	Orion	$138,530,565	1,564	$241,080	6	12/19
4	The Karate Kid Part II	Col.	$115,103,979	1,610	$12,652,336	1,323	6/20
5	Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home	Par.	$109,713,132	1,956	$16,881,888	1,349	11/26
6	Back to School	Orion	$91,258,000	1,751	$8,881,035	1,605	6/13
7	Aliens	Fox	$85,160,248	1,454	$10,052,042	1,437	7/18
8	The Golden Child	Par.	$79,817,937	1,714	$11,549,711	1,667	12/12
9	Ruthless People	BV	$71,624,879	1,114	$5,274,306	1,111	6/27
10	Ferris Bueller's Day Off	Par.	$70,136,369	1,330	$6,275,647	1,330	6/11

 

1996

1	Independence Day	Fox	$306,169,268	2,977	$50,228,264	2,882	7/3
2	Twister	WB	$241,721,524	2,808	$41,059,405	2,414	5/10
3	Mission: Impossible	Par.	$180,981,856	3,012	$45,436,830	3,012	5/22
4	Jerry Maguire	Sony	$153,952,592	2,531	$17,084,296	2,531	12/13
5	Ransom	BV	$136,492,681	2,768	$34,216,088	2,676	11/8
6	101 Dalmatians (1996)	BV	$136,189,294	2,901	$33,504,025	2,794	11/27
7	The Rock	BV	$134,069,511	2,426	$25,069,525	2,392	6/7
8	The Nutty Professor (1996)	Uni.	$128,814,019	2,239	$25,411,725	2,115	6/28
9	The Birdcage	MGM	$124,060,553	2,285	$18,275,828	1,950	3/8
10	A Time to Kill	WB	$108,766,007	2,313	$14,823,159	2,123	7/24

2006

1	Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest	BV	$423,315,812	4,133	$135,634,554	4,133	7/7	12/7
2	Night at the Museum	Fox	$250,863,268	3,768	$30,433,781	3,685	12/22	6/24
3	Cars	BV	$244,082,982	3,988	$60,119,509	3,985	6/9	10/19
4	X-Men: The Last Stand	Fox	$234,362,462	3,714	$102,750,665	3,690	5/26	9/28
5	The Da Vinci Code	Sony	$217,536,138	3,757	$77,073,388	3,735	5/19	8/20
6	Superman Returns	WB	$200,081,192	4,065	$52,535,096	4,065	6/28	11/2
7	Happy Feet	WB	$198,000,317	3,804	$41,533,432	3,804	11/17	5/10
8	Ice Age: The Meltdown	Fox	$195,330,621	3,969	$68,033,544	3,964	3/31	9/7
9	Casino Royale	Sony	$167,445,960	3,443	$40,833,156	3,434	11/17	3/18
10	The Pursuit of Happyness	Sony	$163,566,459	3,169	$26,541,709	2,852	12/15	3/18

2016

1	Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	BV	$530,867,499	4,157	$155,081,681	4,157	12/16	-
2	Finding Dory	BV	$486,295,561	4,305	$135,060,273	4,305	6/17	12/8
3	Captain America: Civil War	BV	$408,084,349	4,226	$179,139,142	4,226	5/6	9/22
4	The Secret Life of Pets	Uni.	$368,384,330	4,381	$104,352,905	4,370	7/8	12/29
5	The Jungle Book (2016)	BV	$364,001,123	4,144	$103,261,464	4,028	4/15	9/29
6	Deadpool	Fox	$363,070,709	3,856	$132,434,639	3,558	2/12	6/16
7	Zootopia	BV	$341,268,248	3,959	$75,063,401	3,827	3/4	8/4
8	Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice	WB	$330,360,194	4,256	$166,007,347	4,242	3/25	6/16
9	Suicide Squad	WB	$325,100,054	4,255	$133,682,248	4,255	8/5	11/10

The future

Edited March 25, 2017 by POTUS

[johnboy3434]

6 minutes ago, POTUS said:

More and more I see adult dramas with decent RT scores get poor audience scores and the BO reflects it. For the first  time ever the entire Top Ten last year was toons and tights. 

Yeah the general audience isn't getting any smarter over the decades.

 

You're assuming that only an unintelligent audience would prefer "toons and tights" as its preferred type of movie, and by implication that an audience that prefers critically-acclaimed drama must be more intelligent. I'm gonna have to ask you to back that assertion up.

Edited March 25, 2017 by johnboy3434

[Momo]

For those in the know. Is it possible PR Saturday number is better then it's Friday box office number wise?

[Xillix]

Possible yes, but if the Thursday to Friday numbers are so frontloaded...

[The Panda]

29 minutes ago, johnboy3434 said:

So, of the three factors statistically shown to correlate with good legs (high Youtube trailer views, good Cinemascore, high RT user score), Power Rangers has hit all three. Hopefully that translates into better staying power than we expected.

 

Lol, I literally ran a regression on this stuff. None of those correlated with good legs.

 

YouTube Views are good for openings and domestic total.  RT scores are simply not significant (at least not when looking at general titles), and lol at Cinemascore.

Edited March 25, 2017 by Beauty and The Panda

[JonathanLB]

2 hours ago, That One Guy said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Condensed into one post for maximum reading experience.

 

Hahahaha this is amazing. You guys are greatly tolerant of the trolls. Power Rangers is Oscar worthy?! Hahahaha LOL! Wow. I have to say and this is no disrespect to the regular posters but I get the greatest entertainment value from the trolls. They're just too funny.

[POTUS 2020]

10 minutes ago, johnboy3434 said:

 

You're assuming that only an unintelligent audience would prefer "toons and tights" as its preferred type of movie, and by implication that an audience that prefers critically-acclaimed drama must be more intelligent. I'm gonna have to ask you to back that assertion up.

I didn't say only. I said general audience.

As a teen, my friends and I went to star wars and Superman as well as fellow top ten movies like chariots of fire and on golden pond. Those are niche movies now . Teens and twenty something don't bother to see them. If they do its a low cinema score because they're boring

[dxmatrixdt]

8 minutes ago, Beauty and The Panda said:

 

Lol, I literally ran a regression on this stuff. None of those correlated with good legs.

 

YouTube Views are good for openings and domestic total.  RT scores are simply not significant (at least not when looking at general titles), and lol at Cinemascore.

 

lol at your comment about lol at the cinemascore

[johnboy3434]

10 minutes ago, Beauty and The Panda said:

 

Lol, I literally ran a regression on this stuff. None of those correlated with good legs.

 

YouTube Views are good for openings and domestic total.  RT scores are simply not significant (at least not when looking at general titles), and lol at Cinemascore.

 

Didn't someone else in your recent thread run a regression and find that RT user score was significant? Another regression on another site (can't remember exactly where, it was awhile ago) showed the same for Cinemascore, but did your data show otherwise?

Edited March 25, 2017 by johnboy3434

[The Panda]

I don't see how you can statistically prove many variables for a film's legs such as RT scores unless you run separate regressions for different genres that you think will behave similarly (such as animated movies, comic book movies, etc.)

 

Even then, I tried doing so with Animated movies and I wasn't getting any meaningful results beyond trailer views and whether the animation was a sequel or from Disney/Pixar/Illumination (Brand name studio) for DOM and OW counts.  The only significant variable for legs was "Holiday Movie".

 

Theres just too many factors that go into a movie's legs to say "It'll do x because RT scores and cinemascores".  They give you glimpses that you take with a grain of salt.  But there's factors like competition, whether the film hits with a certain demo even if others don't like it, is there a fanbase to cause frontloading, are there wide releases to eat up screencounts, etc.

 

 

[dxmatrixdt]

BEST MAN HOLIDAY, THE (2013)

[aabattery]

2 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

BEST MAN HOLIDAY, THE (2013)

 

[The Panda]

2 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

 

lol at your comment about lol at the cinemascore

 

1 minute ago, johnboy3434 said:

 

Didn't someone else in your recent thread run a regression and find that RT user score was significant? Another regression on another site (can't remember exactly where, it was awhile ago) showed the same for Cinemascore, but did your data show otherwise?

 

I can go back and look at Cinemascore but I didn't find it to be significant.  You could maybe force it to be significant if you treated it as the only variable, but that wouldn't be an accurate test (low r-square).

 

The other problem with Cinemascore is certain genres movies tend to get certain scores.  Pretty much every comic book movie gets a B+ or A-, yet legs definitely do differ.  Plus, Cinemascore is simply flat out bad at how they do their surveys, terrible sampling and it wouldn't accurately reflect GA sentiment of the movie.  At best it shows you the sentiment of the West Coast fan base for the film, mixed with the demo that rushes to see movies.

[Xillix]

I'm amazed to this day that the 2014 Ninja Turtles had a 2.9x multiplier. Though I suppose it was the last "big" movie for a while. With Fate of the Furious in three weeks that's probably too much to hope for for Power Rangers.

[DeeCee]

I've seen @Rth and the Beastnumbers. 

Edited March 25, 2017 by DeeCee
That came out wrong at first.