The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Thrylos 7]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

Yeah, it's obvious that people are about to look back more kindly on Age of Ultron and The Last Jedi's holds from their predecessors but Fallen Kingdom just seems so...eh? I'm definitely seeing it but I'm not excited in the slightest.

Except that AOU and TLJ have nothing in common. One fell around 7%ww from its predecessor while the other fell 35% + from its predecessor. It’s nice to put them in the same sentence so that TLJ can look better. JW2 is heading towards a TLJ drop worldwide.

[kswiston]

25 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

Except that AOU and TLJ have nothing in common. One fell around 7%ww from its predecessor while the other fell 35% + from its predecessor. It’s nice to put them in the same sentence so that TLJ can look better. JW2 is heading towards a TLJ drop worldwide.

 

The noise made about Age of Ultron's drop was always overblown. If exchange rates didn't dip in late 2014, it would have been about even with Avengers 1 worldwide. Even domestically, it wasn't terrible. It wasn't great, but plenty of sequels to huge films dip in the 25-30% range. Just a drop in repeat viewing on sequels can be a big blow. 

 

2015 just had a lot of big films, some of which were unexpected. So Ultron went from being what people had pegged as a contender for #1 of the year to being completely overshadowed. In the end, AoU held a lot better from Avengers than any of the sequels from the $1.5B+ 2015 films. 

Edited June 21, 2018 by kswiston

[Ryan Reynolds]

If under 120m for JWFK , then Pratt backlash is confirmed

[Joyous Legion]

19 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

If under 120m for JWFK , then Pratt backlash is confirmed

That would make his conmbined OW over the past two months below 380M. Talk about a disaster.

[Porthos]

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Greater Sacramento Area Seat Report: T-1 Day and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	147	9523	13715	30.57%

 

Total Showings Added Today:      2

Total Seats Added Today:         120

Total Seats Sold Today:            768

 

.3634x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 1 day before release. (IW had 19 more days of pre-sales)

.7070x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 1 day before release (BP had 16 more days of pre-sales) 

.7070x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2  1 day before release (DP2 had one plus more days of pre-sales) 

.8594x as many tickets sold as Solo 1 day before release (Solo had 20 days of pre-sales compared to JW:FK's 22 days of presales) 

 

====

 

More detailed T-1 comps:

 

IW:

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	11	174	3625	15159	76.09%

 

Total Seats Sold That Day:          738

 

BP:

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	7	121	4597	10526	56.33%

 

Total Seats Sold That Day:          650

 

DP2:

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	166	10226	16155	36.70%

 

Total Seats Sold That Day:          835

 

Solo:

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	142	8575	13453	36.26%

 

Total Seats Sold That Day:          377

 

[TalismanRing]

Fandango	Monday	Tues	Wed
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337
SW: Solo	15,855	15,855	28,533
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266
Oceans 8	3,009	4,372	11,114

A Quiet Place

2,177

4,003

10,665

[The Panda]

3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Fandango	Monday	Tues	Wed
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337
SW: Solo	15,855	15,855	28,533
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266
Oceans 8	3,009	4,372	11,114

A Quiet Place

2,177

4,003

10,665

So it's doing about half DP2, but will likely be more walk up based than that.  That could mean anything from 80m - 140m really, given what we know about the falling tracking.  100m OW might not be locked looking at that.

Edited June 21, 2018 by The Incredible Panda

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Edited June 21, 2018 by Darth Lehnsherr

[TalismanRing]

Just now, The Incredible Panda said:

So it's doing about half DP2, but will likely be more walk up based than that.  That could mean anything from 80m - 140m really, given what we know about the falling tracking.

It's internal multiplier should be higher than DP2 which was quite front loaded at 6.747 (just a bit better than AIW's 6.6 with less than half he previews and o/w)

 

The first had a JW had 13x internal but as a direct sequel after just 3 years I'd expect it to be lower.  How much lower?  Maybe 9-11? 

 

The question is if it's more walk up driven than even I2?  If it's the same then these current number would translate to about $110m. 

[Joyous Legion]

33 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Fandango	Monday	Tues	Wed
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337
SW: Solo	15,855	15,855	28,533
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266
Oceans 8	3,009	4,372	11,114

A Quiet Place

2,177

4,003

10,665

Wow, that is... not good.       

 

JWFK is leaning *really* hard on being a walk-up driven, which is a lot harder for sequels than first parts and for 2018 movies than 2015 movies.

[aabattery]

The Wed previews in Australia were 95% of T:R and 55% of BP, which would point to previews of roughly 13.8m, but I'm not sure if those comps line up entirely right. I'll have a much better idea tomorrow if they give me a full Thursday number.

[TalismanRing]

18 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Wow, that is... not good.       

 

JWFK is leaning *really* hard on being a walk-up driven, which is a lot harder for sequels than first parts and for 2018 movies than 2015 movies.

And look at the movies behind it.   Oceans 8 and AQP - the latter which might be the most walk up heavy genre- horror (also had a huge 11.7 internal multiplier that it looks like JW:FK might need to hit $135.  With a 10x it would wind up around $115 - around the same area when using I2 as a walk up comp)

 

JW: FK - 45.286 MTW

O8:  18.495 MTW 

AQP: 16.845 MTW

 

AQP: 4.3m in previews x 2.688   = $11.56m previews

O8: 4m previews  x 2.44 =  $9.79m previews

 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 21, 2018 by TalismanRing

[aabattery]

3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

And look at the movies behind it.   Oceans 8 and AQP - the latter which might be the most walk up heavy genre- horror

 

JW: FK - 45.286 MTW

O8:  18.495 MTW 

AQP: 16.845 MTW

  

AQP: 4.3m in previews (11.7x) x 2.688   = 11.56m previews 

O8: 4m previews  (10.4x) x 2.44 =  9.79m previews

 

 

 

The NZ numbers kinda point to roughly 10m 👀

[That One Girl]

*long, annoyed sigh*

[TLK]

1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:

Fandango	Monday	Tues	Wed
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337
SW: Solo	15,855	15,855	28,533
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266
Oceans 8	3,009	4,372	11,114

A Quiet Place

2,177

4,003

10,665

 

Its Tuesday-Wednesday jump isn't that bad but it will probably need Incredibles 2's levels of walkups to get to $135 million+

[IronJimbo]

6 hours ago, The Incredible Panda said:

Imagine, if JW2 can fall 60% from its predecessor, what could that mean for Avatar 2?

 

@IronJimbo @JamesCameronScholar

A bad sequel 3 years after a bad remake, not really seeing the connection.

 

More accurate to look at Incredibles 2, a good sequel 14 years after a good original film

[HeyItsMoses]

4 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

If under 120m for JWFK , then Pratt backlash is confirmed

what backlash?

[Stewart]

16 minutes ago, HeyItsMoses said:

what backlash?

Didn't you hear? All of Pratt's films are flopping!

 

Infinity War couldn't even beat Black Panther domestically, nor The Force Awakens WorldWide.

Jurassic World 2 can't even match Jurassic World's $1.6b.

 

Guardians 3 (when it comes out) will probably flop as well, not even getting the easy $2b worldwide

[stripe]

Crossing fingers another JP movie once again closes mouths to many naysayers here

[ZeeSoh]

3 hours ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Ayyy I just finished watching this movie on TV. What a coincidence