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grim22

The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted (edited)

So, for my 2 local theaters set for Mary Poppins 2 on Wednesday...1 is fascinating and fully set...

 

My Regal local has the following set - equivalent screens of 2.5 for 13 showings...but, you can tell they see this as families and old people b/c it's

4 screens for 1st showing (10:30am-12pm)

4 screens for 2nd showing (1:30pm-3pm)

2 screens for 3rd showing (5-5:30pm)

2 screens for 4th showing (8-9pm)

1 screen for late night showing (11pm)

 

So, it's one dedicated screen, 1 almost dedicated screen (just losing the late night showing to Widows) and 2 .5 screens giving prime-time showings to Instant Family, Widows (for 1 showing), and a special event opera.

 

Edited by TwoMisfits
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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
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2 hours ago, narniadis said:

Seems fine? I mean if anything the 4 screans in the early day seems like overkill? 

They are betting it draws better than the pre-existing morning offerings, I think...my area is in school through Dec 21, so animateds won't draw as much Wed/Thurs, but senior citizen draws will definitely do so:)...and they probably figure any kids who are out early won't mind this one, so they are keeping the other animateds (all 3) just single screened in the morning (Spidey picks up the 2nd screen showing starting in the afternoon, still not doubling 1st thing)...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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Eric Prime Global Phenomenon

Eric Prime

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https://deadline.com/2018/12/aquaman-sneak-preview-box-office-amazon-prime-1202521144/

 

Quote

Given how Christmas falls on a Tuesday this year, many are looking at the five-day path that Aquaman is going to burn in its opening. Right now, the James Wan-directed movie, which has a 70% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, is expected to post a $57M-$62M three-day to lead all films next weekend, and a five day around $115M. Disney’s Mary Poppins Returns opens Wednesday and many think its first five days will be around $57M-$62M while Paramount’s Bumblebee is seeing a $35M-$40M Friday-Tuesday 5-day start.

 

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AdamKendall Box Office Gold

AdamKendall

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

Did they just paste the Poppins number for Aquaman? A 57-62M start won't lead to 115M. A 68-75M start however can.

Those two having the exact same # seems suspect, especially given it was already tracking for more than 65 2-3 weeks ago.

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Eric Prime Global Phenomenon

Eric Prime

Posted
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

Did they just paste the Poppins number for Aquaman? A 57-62M start won't lead to 115M. A 68-75M start however can.

You're good at this kind of extrapolating numbers. With Poppins' current tracking at 57-62M start for its first five days, what would its first seven days look like?

Edited by CoolEric258
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Old Spice Sleeper Hit

Old Spice

Posted
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1 hour ago, grim22 said:

 

Did they just paste the Poppins number for Aquaman? A 57-62M start won't lead to 115M. A 68-75M start however can.

Yeah, that's crazy math. Six months ago I would have been thrilled at a $57-62 start, but after seeing the film last night and talking to folks afterward, I would be shocked if it opened that low. I think the WOM on this is going to be fantastic.

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Daenys Cult Classic

Daenys

Posted
Posted (edited)

Fandango presales

 

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_past24hours.txt

  

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2018-12-16 06:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	20.005%	754	Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse
2	17.246%	650	Aquaman
3	10.613%	400	Mary Poppins Returns (2018)
4	09.658%	364	They Shall Not Grow Old
5	07.164%	270	The Mule (2018)
6	05.917%	223	Dragon Ball Super Broly
7	03.423%	129	Bumblebee
8	03.025%	114	Mortal Engines
9	02.494%	94	Ralph Breaks the Internet
10	02.123%	80	Bohemian Rhapsody
11	01.963%	74	Creed II
12	01.937%	73	Dr. Seuss The Grinch (2018)
13	01.804%	68	Once Upon a Deadpool
14	01.645%	62	Fantastic Beasts The Crimes of Grindelwald

  


 
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a2k Global Phenomenon

a2k

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So according to Deadline AQM is looking at 57-62 day #1-3 + 53-58 day #4-5 = 115 (110-120). It's tough to project over uneven calendar configurations and extrapolate from 3-day to 5-day, but their breakdown just seems inaccurate straightaway, especially for a CBM that's gonna have some front-loading even in December.

Edited by a2k
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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted

So, ugly sets coming for holdovers on Thursday:)...my 12 (which did the crazy MP set for Wed) has already posted previews for every Dec 21 opening movie starting at 5pm.  These new movies take SIX screens from 5pm on - 2 Aquaman, 2 Bumblebee, 1 Marwen, and 1 Second Act.  Couple that with an evening screen for MP (it seems the theater's weird Wed set was to make sure they had enough Thursday night screens for other things), 2 for Spidey, 1 for ME, and 1 for Mule...they are at 11 evening screens reserved from 5pm on, without finalizing their morning/afternoon sets (ie - this is their opening "presales only" decision)...there is 1 evening screen left for every holdover before Dec 14...if Dec 14 was bad for holdovers, Dec 20 on will be way worse:)...

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, a2k said:

So according to Deadline AQM is looking at 57-62 day #1-3 + 53-58 day #4-5 = 115 (110-120). It's tough to project over uneven calendar configurations and extrapolate from 3-day to 5-day, but their breakdown just seems inaccurate straightaway, especially for a CBM that's gonna have some front-loading even in December.

I agree...while a totally different movie, Jack Reacher opened on the same day/date and Xmas set and did $15.2M 3 day and $23.149M 5 day...probably less frontloading on this movie, so this is probably a "best case" box office back-end split for Aquaman's 5 day take...

 

Xmas Day could match OW Fri or Sat, but Xmas Eve is gonna be a low day...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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