The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[excel1]

Aquabro about to blow big. JURASSIC WORLD Jr income

[ChipDerby]

1 hour ago, Deep Wang said:

But you've been doing this for 20 years and are so much better at it than the rest of us 🧐

 

Sorry I don't use deep wang numbers.

[Napoleon]

What do you guys expect from Second Act based on those numbers? Can we reach $100 million domestic?

[fabiopazzo2]

18 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

What do you guys expect from Second Act based on those numbers? Can we reach $100 million domestic?

Maybe, is not locked

[Deep Wang]

1 hour ago, Napoleon said:

What do you guys expect from Second Act based on those numbers? Can we reach $100 million domestic?

I mean, no?

[filmlover]

On the Basis of Sex is set to open at a handful of theaters next Tuesday according to the tickets section of the movie’s website so it clearly isn’t a LA/NY thing. I’m guessing they’re putting it in something like 25 theaters like Hidden Figures two years ago.

Edited December 18, 2018 by filmlover

[Manny G]

Fishboy passed MPR on both Fandango and Movietickets.com

 

https://www.movietickets.com/

 

 

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_past24hours.txt

[excel1]

1 hour ago, Manny G said:

Fishboy passed MPR on both Fandango and Movietickets.com

 

https://www.movietickets.com/

 

 

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_past24hours.txt

 

Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen.

[TalismanRing]

Fandango chart under cut

 

Spoiler

 

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday
A Wrinke In Time		4,864		15,601
A Quiet Place	2,177	4,003	10,665
Blockers	504	1,106	2,931
Rampage	705	1,508	4,109
Truth Or Dare	385	760	2,133
Super Troopers	2,825	3,447	6,881
I Feel Pretty	871	1,610	4,423
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826	206,000
Overboard	84	409	1,044
Breaking In	727	1204	2,899
Life Of The Party	587	1,310	3,010
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212
Show Dogs	6	128	369
Book Club	836	1,599	3,283
SW: Solo	13,688	15,855	28,533
Action Point	17	48	197
Upgrade	9	119	522
Adrift	63	308	1,268
Oceans 8	3,009	4,372	11,114
Hereditary	659	1,178	3,181
Hotel Artemis	26	166	520
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337
Tag	314	660	1,448
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266
Sicario 2	788	1282	3,403
Uncle Drew	274	473	1,201
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108
Purge (Wed)	2,885	8,308
Hotel Transylvania 3	1,753	2,674	6,605	14,754
Skyscraper	586	1,019	2,868	7,134
Mamma Mia 2	4,427	5,099	12,117	17,226
Equalizer	1,418	2,297	6,073	11,875
Unfriended		71	240	975
MI6		*3328	13,575	27,261
Teen Titans		*462	2,125	4,526
Christopher Robin	1,560	2,442	5,355	11,509
The Spy Who Dumped Me	234	542	1,561	4,222
The Darkest Minds	130	244	579	1,777
Eighth Grade	494	508	720	936
Death of A Nation	148	194	375	1,239
The Meg	1,539	2,944	6,723	16,202
Slender Man	177	418	1,091	3,737
BlackkKlansman	432	682	1,934	5,017
Dog Days (Wed)	115	631	1,536	1,212
Crazy Rich Asians (Wed)	3,651	5,742	20,173	20,102
Alpha	181	283	943	2,069
Mile 22	282	519	1,833	5,200
Happytime Murders	382	*488	1,954	5,602
A.X.L.	32	*60	310	911
Kin	21	141	263	741
Operation Finale (Wed)	415	2,083	4,879	3,915
Searching	303	588	1,194	2,862
The Nun	2,082	5,938	13,806	28,881
Peppermint	286	863	2,508	4,441
God Bless The Broken Road	6	33	152	282
Predator	1,295	2,476	4,545	13,063
A Simple Favor	564	2,126	4,410	10,381
White Boy Rick	136	567	1,458	4,587
Unbroken 2	88	180	360	659
House With Clocks	897	1469	3607	8,074
Fahrenheit 11/9	164	281	713	1,715
Life Itself	79	162	394	953
Assassination Nation		36	94	382
Night School	1,045	1,756	3,566
Small Foot	734	1,261	2,448
Hellfest	195	304	661
Little Women		65	134
Venom	13,602	13,818	20,867	31,569
A Star Is Born	9,115	11,383	22,641	21,501
First Man	654	909	3,610	7,586
Goosebumps 2	300	631	1,733	3,615
Bad Times at the El Royale	264	481	1,257	3,350
Halloween	9,563	12,980	21,600	36,126
The Hate U Give (2k expansion)	1,026	1,542	1,559	2,055
Hunter Killer	91	368	1,062	2,726
Indivisible	33	89	204	440
Bohemian Rhapsody	7,255	9,026	12,546	26,476
The Nutcracker & the Four Realms	1,659	1,949	2,567	5,518
Nobody's Fool	436	900	1,719	4,437
Grinch	3,580	4,860	10,092	17,046
Girl In The Spider's Web	286	691	1,735	3,554
Overlord	299	605	1,599	4,522
Fantastic Beasts 2	8,956	14,238	21,861	31,880
Widows	310	868	2,219	4,179
Instant Family	230	565	1,325	2,584
Creed II (Wed)	7,005	12,131	15,354	15,559
Ralph 2 (Wed)	6,712	12,083	19,183	15,870
Robin Hood (Wed)	1,602	1846	2,621	2,632
Green Book (1k exp)	387	922	89	2,268
Spider-Verse	3,715	5,208	9,858	3,475
Mortal Engines	465	785	1,504	6,235
The Mule	791	1,779	3,882	19,972
Once Upon A Deadpool (wed)	1,732	3,402	3,621	2,310
Mary Poppins (Wed)	7,713
Aquaman	8,502
Bumblebee	1,553

 

 

 

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday
Mary Poppins Returns (Wed)	7,713
Aquaman	8,502
Bumblebee	1,553

 

Second Act	353
Welcome To Marwen	299

 

 

Early comps - taking in mind this is December and Sunday should also have a low drop so not ideal

 

MPR :7,713 (Mon) - Wed openers - not a lot of good comps 

211% of CRA  = $74.785m  5 Day (summer)
110% of WIR = $93.225  5 Day (Thanksgiving)

AQM: 8.502 (Mon) 

62% of Venom = $50m  
36.7% of Deadpool 2: $46.12m
62% of Solo: = $52.43m (MD w/e)

 

Bumblebee - not sure how walk up heavy Transformers is.  More or less than Jurassic? 

If the same then ~ $24.8m.  About the same if using Mortal Engines as a comp. 
 

Edited December 18, 2018 by TalismanRing

[WrathOfHan]

MPR pacing ahead of Ralph by about 15% is fantastic. Even if sales are more spread out over the next two weeks rather than focused on the first 5 days, this still indicates a 3 day over 50M.

Otoh, Aquaman is now lagging far behind other CBMs. We’ll see how sales are Tuesday.

@TalismanRing those are good comps for Bumblebee. This franchise no longer has the demand it did back when Dark or the Moon or even Age of Extinction wrre out.

[Napoleon]

 

[Michael Seng Wah]

3 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

Fandango chart under cut

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday
A Wrinke In Time		4,864		15,601
A Quiet Place	2,177	4,003	10,665
Blockers	504	1,106	2,931
Rampage	705	1,508	4,109
Truth Or Dare	385	760	2,133
Super Troopers	2,825	3,447	6,881
I Feel Pretty	871	1,610	4,423
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826	206,000
Overboard	84	409	1,044
Breaking In	727	1204	2,899
Life Of The Party	587	1,310	3,010
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212
Show Dogs	6	128	369
Book Club	836	1,599	3,283
SW: Solo	13,688	15,855	28,533
Action Point	17	48	197
Upgrade	9	119	522
Adrift	63	308	1,268
Oceans 8	3,009	4,372	11,114
Hereditary	659	1,178	3,181
Hotel Artemis	26	166	520
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337
Tag	314	660	1,448
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266
Sicario 2	788	1282	3,403
Uncle Drew	274	473	1,201
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108
Purge (Wed)	2,885	8,308
Hotel Transylvania 3	1,753	2,674	6,605	14,754
Skyscraper	586	1,019	2,868	7,134
Mamma Mia 2	4,427	5,099	12,117	17,226
Equalizer	1,418	2,297	6,073	11,875
Unfriended		71	240	975
MI6		*3328	13,575	27,261
Teen Titans		*462	2,125	4,526
Christopher Robin	1,560	2,442	5,355	11,509
The Spy Who Dumped Me	234	542	1,561	4,222
The Darkest Minds	130	244	579	1,777
Eighth Grade	494	508	720	936
Death of A Nation	148	194	375	1,239
The Meg	1,539	2,944	6,723	16,202
Slender Man	177	418	1,091	3,737
BlackkKlansman	432	682	1,934	5,017
Dog Days (Wed)	115	631	1,536	1,212
Crazy Rich Asians (Wed)	3,651	5,742	20,173	20,102
Alpha	181	283	943	2,069
Mile 22	282	519	1,833	5,200
Happytime Murders	382	*488	1,954	5,602
A.X.L.	32	*60	310	911
Kin	21	141	263	741
Operation Finale (Wed)	415	2,083	4,879	3,915
Searching	303	588	1,194	2,862
The Nun	2,082	5,938	13,806	28,881
Peppermint	286	863	2,508	4,441
God Bless The Broken Road	6	33	152	282
Predator	1,295	2,476	4,545	13,063
A Simple Favor	564	2,126	4,410	10,381
White Boy Rick	136	567	1,458	4,587
Unbroken 2	88	180	360	659
House With Clocks	897	1469	3607	8,074
Fahrenheit 11/9	164	281	713	1,715
Life Itself	79	162	394	953
Assassination Nation		36	94	382
Night School	1,045	1,756	3,566
Small Foot	734	1,261	2,448
Hellfest	195	304	661
Little Women		65	134
Venom	13,602	13,818	20,867	31,569
A Star Is Born	9,115	11,383	22,641	21,501
First Man	654	909	3,610	7,586
Goosebumps 2	300	631	1,733	3,615
Bad Times at the El Royale	264	481	1,257	3,350
Halloween	9,563	12,980	21,600	36,126
The Hate U Give (2k expansion)	1,026	1,542	1,559	2,055
Hunter Killer	91	368	1,062	2,726
Indivisible	33	89	204	440
Bohemian Rhapsody	7,255	9,026	12,546	26,476
The Nutcracker & the Four Realms	1,659	1,949	2,567	5,518
Nobody's Fool	436	900	1,719	4,437
Grinch	3,580	4,860	10,092	17,046
Girl In The Spider's Web	286	691	1,735	3,554
Overlord	299	605	1,599	4,522
Fantastic Beasts 2	8,956	14,238	21,861	31,880
Widows	310	868	2,219	4,179
Instant Family	230	565	1,325	2,584
Creed II (Wed)	7,005	12,131	15,354	15,559
Ralph 2 (Wed)	6,712	12,083	19,183	15,870
Robin Hood (Wed)	1,602	1846	2,621	2,632
Green Book (1k exp)	387	922	89	2,268
Spider-Verse	3,715	5,208	9,858	3,475
Mortal Engines	465	785	1,504	6,235
The Mule	791	1,779	3,882	19,972
Once Upon A Deadpool (wed)	1,732	3,402	3,621	2,310
Mary Poppins (Wed)	7,713
Aquaman	8,502
Bumblebee	1,553

 

 

 

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday
Mary Poppins Returns (Wed)	7,713
Aquaman	8,502
Bumblebee	1,553

 

Second Act	353
Welcome To Marwen	299

 

 

Early comps - taking in mind this is December and Sunday should also have a low drop so not ideal

 

MPR :7,713 (Mon) - Wed openers - not a lot of good comps 

211% of CRA  = $74.785m  5 Day (summer)
110% of WIR = $93.225  5 Day (Thanksgiving)

AQM: 8.502 (Mon) 

62% of Venom = $50m  
36.7% of Deadpool 2: $46.12m
62% of Solo: = $52.43m (MD w/e)

 

Bumblebee - not sure how walk up heavy Transformers is.  More or less than Jurassic? 

If the same then ~ $24.8m.  About the same if using Mortal Engines as a comp. 
 

Think AQM will pick up since MPR opens ahead on Wednesday.

[TwoMisfits]

7 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

Fandango chart under cut

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday
A Wrinke In Time		4,864		15,601
A Quiet Place	2,177	4,003	10,665
Blockers	504	1,106	2,931
Rampage	705	1,508	4,109
Truth Or Dare	385	760	2,133
Super Troopers	2,825	3,447	6,881
I Feel Pretty	871	1,610	4,423
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826	206,000
Overboard	84	409	1,044
Breaking In	727	1204	2,899
Life Of The Party	587	1,310	3,010
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212
Show Dogs	6	128	369
Book Club	836	1,599	3,283
SW: Solo	13,688	15,855	28,533
Action Point	17	48	197
Upgrade	9	119	522
Adrift	63	308	1,268
Oceans 8	3,009	4,372	11,114
Hereditary	659	1,178	3,181
Hotel Artemis	26	166	520
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337
Tag	314	660	1,448
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266
Sicario 2	788	1282	3,403
Uncle Drew	274	473	1,201
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108
Purge (Wed)	2,885	8,308
Hotel Transylvania 3	1,753	2,674	6,605	14,754
Skyscraper	586	1,019	2,868	7,134
Mamma Mia 2	4,427	5,099	12,117	17,226
Equalizer	1,418	2,297	6,073	11,875
Unfriended		71	240	975
MI6		*3328	13,575	27,261
Teen Titans		*462	2,125	4,526
Christopher Robin	1,560	2,442	5,355	11,509
The Spy Who Dumped Me	234	542	1,561	4,222
The Darkest Minds	130	244	579	1,777
Eighth Grade	494	508	720	936
Death of A Nation	148	194	375	1,239
The Meg	1,539	2,944	6,723	16,202
Slender Man	177	418	1,091	3,737
BlackkKlansman	432	682	1,934	5,017
Dog Days (Wed)	115	631	1,536	1,212
Crazy Rich Asians (Wed)	3,651	5,742	20,173	20,102
Alpha	181	283	943	2,069
Mile 22	282	519	1,833	5,200
Happytime Murders	382	*488	1,954	5,602
A.X.L.	32	*60	310	911
Kin	21	141	263	741
Operation Finale (Wed)	415	2,083	4,879	3,915
Searching	303	588	1,194	2,862
The Nun	2,082	5,938	13,806	28,881
Peppermint	286	863	2,508	4,441
God Bless The Broken Road	6	33	152	282
Predator	1,295	2,476	4,545	13,063
A Simple Favor	564	2,126	4,410	10,381
White Boy Rick	136	567	1,458	4,587
Unbroken 2	88	180	360	659
House With Clocks	897	1469	3607	8,074
Fahrenheit 11/9	164	281	713	1,715
Life Itself	79	162	394	953
Assassination Nation		36	94	382
Night School	1,045	1,756	3,566
Small Foot	734	1,261	2,448
Hellfest	195	304	661
Little Women		65	134
Venom	13,602	13,818	20,867	31,569
A Star Is Born	9,115	11,383	22,641	21,501
First Man	654	909	3,610	7,586
Goosebumps 2	300	631	1,733	3,615
Bad Times at the El Royale	264	481	1,257	3,350
Halloween	9,563	12,980	21,600	36,126
The Hate U Give (2k expansion)	1,026	1,542	1,559	2,055
Hunter Killer	91	368	1,062	2,726
Indivisible	33	89	204	440
Bohemian Rhapsody	7,255	9,026	12,546	26,476
The Nutcracker & the Four Realms	1,659	1,949	2,567	5,518
Nobody's Fool	436	900	1,719	4,437
Grinch	3,580	4,860	10,092	17,046
Girl In The Spider's Web	286	691	1,735	3,554
Overlord	299	605	1,599	4,522
Fantastic Beasts 2	8,956	14,238	21,861	31,880
Widows	310	868	2,219	4,179
Instant Family	230	565	1,325	2,584
Creed II (Wed)	7,005	12,131	15,354	15,559
Ralph 2 (Wed)	6,712	12,083	19,183	15,870
Robin Hood (Wed)	1,602	1846	2,621	2,632
Green Book (1k exp)	387	922	89	2,268
Spider-Verse	3,715	5,208	9,858	3,475
Mortal Engines	465	785	1,504	6,235
The Mule	791	1,779	3,882	19,972
Once Upon A Deadpool (wed)	1,732	3,402	3,621	2,310
Mary Poppins (Wed)	7,713
Aquaman	8,502
Bumblebee	1,553

 

 

 

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday
Mary Poppins Returns (Wed)	7,713
Aquaman	8,502
Bumblebee	1,553

 

Second Act	353
Welcome To Marwen	299

 

 

Early comps - taking in mind this is December and Sunday should also have a low drop so not ideal

 

MPR :7,713 (Mon) - Wed openers - not a lot of good comps 

211% of CRA  = $74.785m  5 Day (summer)
110% of WIR = $93.225  5 Day (Thanksgiving)

AQM: 8.502 (Mon) 

62% of Venom = $50m  
36.7% of Deadpool 2: $46.12m
62% of Solo: = $52.43m (MD w/e)

 

Bumblebee - not sure how walk up heavy Transformers is.  More or less than Jurassic? 

If the same then ~ $24.8m.  About the same if using Mortal Engines as a comp. 
 

The thing with Aquaman being low is that it already has $2.9M BO in the bag from sneaks (and a lot of those were presold)...I'd be curious how it compares to Spideyverse, which also had some unknown number in the bag before it opened...that would probably be the best recent comp...although the most timely would be Jumanji...

Edited December 18, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[WrathOfHan]

So AMC isn't running $5 Tuesdays on Christmas or New Year's Day; there's a banner on their site saying today is the last day this year to take advantage of it. I wonder how many other chains will have regular pricing the next two weeks.

Edited December 18, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[filmlover]

12 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

So AMC isn't running $5 Tuesdays on Christmas or New Year's Day; there's a banner on their site saying today is the last day this year to take advantage of it. I wonder how many other chains will have regular pricing the next two weeks.

My Cinemark isn’t doing discount pricing between December 23 and January 1 so I imagine most theaters will do the same.

[filmlover]

Hollywood Reporter:

 

Aquaman: $110M 5-day

Mary Poppins Returns: $55M 5-day, $70M 7-day

Bumblebee: $40M 5-day

Second Act: $9M 5-day

Welcome to Marwen: $7-9M 5-day

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-preview-aquaman-mary-poppins-returns-lead-1170308

[WrathOfHan]

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Hollywood Reporter:

 

Aquaman: $110M 5-day

Mary Poppins Returns: $55M 5-day, $70M 7-day

Bumblebee: $40M 5-day

Second Act: $9M 5-day

Welcome to Marwen: $7-9M 5-day

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-preview-aquaman-mary-poppins-returns-lead-1170308

That’s too low for Poppins and too high for Marwen.

[VTKajin]

Translates to $70-75M 3-day for Aquaman like Deadline failed to state. 

[MrGlass2]

Both MPR and Aquaman don't seem to do so well in presales, to reach those high numbers. Maybe it is hard to compare near Christmas? SW got some crazy presales then again it was SW.

Edited December 18, 2018 by MrGlass2

[TwoMisfits]

51 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

So AMC isn't running $5 Tuesdays on Christmas or New Year's Day; there's a banner on their site saying today is the last day this year to take advantage of it. I wonder how many other chains will have regular pricing the next two weeks.

Every chain with discount days in my area have discontinued them during that period except a very low-performing Regal (which I don't track, but which I get lots of cheap tickets from b/c they sell on both Fandango and Atom:) which discounts Wednesdays to $6...so, I've gotten tickets on Dec 19 and 26 evening shows for a song...

 

Now, the discount 1st shows ARE still in effect for all theaters in my area, so there is a way to attend cheaply.  I expect those to sellout 1st for every day of the season for most of the movies...

Edited December 18, 2018 by TwoMisfits