The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[dxmatrixdt]

so out of a 200M weekend when Aquaman opens...

 

33% - Aquaman - 66 million

20% - Poppins - 40 million

15% - Bumblebee - 30 million

10% - Spidey - 20 million

 6% - Second Act - 12 million

 4% - The Mule - 8 million

 3% - Marwen - 6 million

 3% - Mortal Engines - 6 million

 2% - Ralph - 4 million

 2% - Grinch - 4 million     

98% - 196 million

Edited December 12, 2018 by nature league - matrix

[dxmatrixdt]

3 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Every post I've seen from him is basically "This movie's gonna flop" with no other details or variation. The funniest thing ever was when he was all "I predicted Solo would flop. I killed Solo. I will kill Jurassic." Then after it did good, homeboy just disappeared until Fantastic Beasts dropped. What a goober.

all tentpoles from different studios too?

 

I don't see how Spidey flops.  it is tracking at 40M OW in December, I think it scored a lotto win

[Welfin]

4 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Every post I've seen from him is basically "This movie's gonna flop" with no other details or variation. The funniest thing ever was when he was all "I predicted Solo would flop. I killed Solo. I will kill Jurassic." Then after it did good, homeboy just disappeared until Fantastic Beasts dropped. What a goober.

Why are you so concerned with my posting activity?

 

I didn't realize I had my own stalker. 

 

And I never disappeared. I post when I am interested.

[That One Girl]

THE MULE IS GETTING GOOD REVIEWS.  FUCK YEAH.  AMERICAN SNIPER NUMBERS HERE WE COME #THEMULE

[Brainbug]

4 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

THE MULE IS GETTING GOOD REVIEWS.  FUCK YEAH.  AMERICAN SNIPER NUMBERS HERE WE COME #THEMULE

 

The Mule doesnt seem to have a fake baby though.

 

That could make 300M+ DOM much harder i fear.

Edited December 12, 2018 by Brainbug

[That One Girl]

Just now, Brainbug said:

 

The Mule doenst seem to have a fake baby though.

 

That could make 300M+ DOM much harder i fear.

 

You’re right.  Let’s go with a 100M opening and Greatest Showman legs.

Edited December 12, 2018 by That One Guy

[poweranimals]

Why is Once Upon a Deadpool #2 sales wise on Fandango but MT.com doesn't even have it in the top 5? I know they're not exactly the same but I'm surprised to see this much of a divide.

[VTKajin]

38 minutes ago, nature league - matrix said:

so out of a 200M weekend when Aquaman opens...

 

33% - Aquaman - 66 million

20% - Poppins - 40 million

15% - Bumblebee - 30 million

10% - Spidey - 20 million

 6% - Second Act - 12 million

 4% - The Mule - 8 million

 3% - Marwen - 6 million

 3% - Mortal Engines - 6 million

 2% - Ralph - 4 million

 2% - Grinch - 4 million     

98% - 196 million

Isn't $200M a little low? Last year's two major weekends combined were $460M. This Dec 14th weekend will be a bit subdued, so next week should definitely add up to more than $200M. 

[TwoMisfits]

34 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

THE MULE IS GETTING GOOD REVIEWS.  FUCK YEAH.  AMERICAN SNIPER NUMBERS HERE WE COME #THEMULE

You know, you sound like you're almost joking...but last Clint film for acting...and that doesn't suck...and that's square in the aged 40+ film goer category in a year light on the limited movie appeal for them...not saying we could see some nice weekend and crazy multiplier action...but, we could:)...

[Rumpot]

• Some pre-release tracking metrics have approached the levels of Hotel Transylvania 3 and The LEGO Batman Movie.

https://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-forecast-spider-man-spider-verse-mule-mortal-engines/

 

30-45M predict.  Tracking moving up it seems to me

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

40 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

Why is Once Upon a Deadpool #2 sales wise on Fandango but MT.com doesn't even have it in the top 5? I know they're not exactly the same but I'm surprised to see this much of a divide.

Because MT’s scope as a ticket distributor is unknown for its “Top 5”. That’s why Bollywood films make the list when grossing less than 1 million all the time 

[Ezen Baklattan]

MT

 

1. Spiderverse - 9.9%

2. The Grinch - 9.6%

3. RBTI - 7.6%

4. Dragon Ball - 6.3%

5. Creed II - 5.5%

 

BROOKLYN!

[TalismanRing]

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed
Spider-Verse	3,715	5,208	9,858
Mortal Engines	465	785	1,504
The Mule	791	1,779	3,882
Once Upon A Deadpool (wed)	1,732	3,402	3,621
Dec 19th
Mary Poppins (Wed)	1,593	1.487	2,280
Dec 21st
Aquaman	1,877	1,851	2.561
Bumblebee	297	323	412

 

 

[el sid]

MT update:

#1 Spider-Man 14.1%

#2 The Grinch 11.1%
#3 Ralph 2 6.4%
#4 The Mule 6.1%
#5 BR 4.8%

[Eric the Fall Guy]

Spider-Verse's Wednesday on Fandango is 25% of Incredibles 2's Wednesday, which would roughly translate to about $45.8 million. I'll look at other movies and their comps later

[efialtes76]

6 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed
Spider-Verse	3,715	5,208	9,858
Mortal Engines	465	785	1,504
The Mule	791	1,779	3,882
Once Upon A Deadpool (wed)	1,732	3,402	3,621
Dec 19th
Mary Poppins (Wed)	1,593	1.487	2,280
Dec 21st
Aquaman	1,877	1,851	2.561
Bumblebee	297	323	412

 

 

Poor Bumblebee.

Edited December 13, 2018 by efialtes76

[Manny G]

11 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

Poor Bumblee.

Seems like even the great reviews are not helping. Paramount did a crappy job marketing this film. It just screams “non event”

Edited December 13, 2018 by Manny G

[lorddemaxus]

6 minutes ago, Manny G said:

Seems like even the great reviews are not helping. Paramount did a crappy job marketing this film it’s just screams “non event”

https://variety.com/2018/digital/news/bumblebee-again-tops-studios-tv-ad-spending-1203086007/

 

What type of ads were made with that money?

Edited December 13, 2018 by lorddemaxus

[filmlover]

Bumblebee has to repair a franchise that has been sullied by so many garbage sequels. And there is a shit ton of competition out at the same time. The movie could open with $20M over the 3-day portion and still leg it out to a total higher than the last Transformers movie because it’s all about legs and not a big opening at this time of year.

[Manny G]

3 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

https://variety.com/2018/digital/news/bumblebee-again-tops-studios-tv-ad-spending-1203086007/

 

What type of ads were made with that money?

Besides TV ads are cool and all but all movies have TV ads even the smallest drama sometime top tv ads.  As a blockbuster you can’t rely on those, especially in this day and age where most young people don’t even watch live tv anymore. Aquaman has been touring the world for weeks having several fan events, social media contests, flooding every talk shows radio and late shows I mean Jason Momoa even got to host snl. Paramount couldn’t even release one “final Hype” Trailer. You can even take look at the striking difference in hype and buzz and overall energy between their US red carpet premieres.