The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[FlashMaster659]

 

[Porthos]

Detective Pikachu Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-28 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	69	6864	7022	2.25%

 

Total Showings Added Today:           6

Total Seats Added Today:              675

Total Seats Sold Today:                   53

 

I don't have any good comps like Incredibles 2, so these will have to do.  Use with caution:

 

.2439x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom after one day of pre-sales.

.2370x as many tickets sold as Crimes of Grindelwald after two day of pre-sales.

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

JW2 (day 2)              180 tickets sold that day [0 sellouts/97 showings     |   9338/10113 seats left    | 7.66% sold]

Pika (JW adj)* (day 2)     49 tickets sold that day [0 sellouts/69 showings     |    6461/6650 seats left     | 2.84% sold]

FB2 (day 2)              150 tickets sold that day [0 sellouts/94 showings     |  12571/13377 seats left   | 6.03% sold] 

Pika (FBadj)** (day 2)     49 tickets sold that day [0 sellouts/69 showings     |    6972/7163 seats left     | 2.67% sold]    

*  Pika (JW adj) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom

**Pika (FB adj) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Crimes of Grindelwald

 

====

 

Next Update: Sunday Night (4/14).

Edited April 13, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

30 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

 50 any day now     

 

  Hide contents

I totally get wanting to urge caution, but I think we’ll be pivoting to the ramp up period soon now. Just too short a presales run to really bottom out.

 

If one recalls I said "if no showings were added this week".

 

A ton of showings were added this week, so my caution is well out the window.

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Detective Pikachu Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-29 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	69	6864	7022	2.25%

 

Total Showings Added Today:           6

Total Seats Added Today:              675

Total Seats Sold Today:                   53

 

I don't have any good comps like Incredibles 2, so these will have to do.  Use with caution:

 

.2439x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom after one day of pre-sales.

.2370x as many tickets sold as Crimes of Grindelwald after two day of pre-sales.

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

JW2 (day 2)              180 tickets sold that day [0 sellouts/97 showings     |   9338/10113 seats left    | 7.66% sold]

Pika (JW adj)* (day 2😞     49 tickets sold that day [0 sellouts/69 showings     |    6461/6650 seats left     | 2.84% sold]

FB2 (day 2😞             150 tickets sold that day [0 sellouts/94 showings     |  12571/13377 seats left   | 6.03% sold] 

Pika (FBadj)** (day 2):     49 tickets sold that day [0 sellouts/69 showings     |    6972/7163 seats left     | 2.67% sold]    

*  Pika (JW adj) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom

**Pika (FB adj) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Crimes of Grindelwald

 

====

 

Next Update: Sunday Night (4/13).

Oh Porthos did you mean Saturday Night? If you didn't then Sunday Night would be 4/14 just so you know.

[Porthos]

Just now, Mulder said:

Oh Porthos did you mean Saturday Night? If you didn't then Sunday Night would be 4/14 just so you know.

Math? What is math?

 

---

 

Counted on the days ahead as if today was Fri.    

 

Fixed.

 

[Cooper Legion]

41 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

 

I know this isn’t the China presales thread, and don’t want to clutter things up too much with posts about another BO territory entirely.    

 

Just wanted to drop the tasty follow-up tidbit that AEG 2hr presales handily dispatched IW first 120 hrs.    

 

Anyone looking for more fun should drop by China, today is a day of revelry not to be matched for some time.  

 

Spoiler

Some time=12 days

 

Edited April 12, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

 

Next time please tell me what you were pointing out in a quote, as I didn't see it at first.   I have so many things that I have to update, that one of the fields I was supposed to update (total seats on the exact comp), I didn't (technically it was from an error carried over from yesterday and I didn't catch it).

 

I do have a spreadsheet helping me keep track of various comps, but I have to still copy-n-paste some info over from the spreadsheet into this forum, and I missed that one.

 

Anyway, fixed (from 4012/16528 seats left to 4012/17569 seats left). Thanks for pointing it out.

 

Edited April 12, 2019 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Next time tell me what you were pointing out in a quote, as I didn't see it at first.   I have so many things that I have to update, that one of the fields I was supposed to update (total seats on the exact comp), I didn't.

 

I do have a spreadsheet helping me keep track, but I have to still copy-n-paste some info over from the spreadsheet into this forum, and I missed that one.

 

Anyway, fixed (from 4012/16528 seats left to 4012/17569 seats left).

I was gonna but then China madness started 😛

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I was gonna but then China madness started 😛

Oh, well that I can understand then.

 

---

 

It's just that I did see you quoted me, but I was in a hurry myself getting the Pika Pika numbers.  Took a quick look and saw you didn't actually say anything in response to my post, shrugged my shoulders, and moved on.  Only noticed the bolded bit just now.

 

Any way, all good.  And as I said, thanks for pointing it out. 👍

Edited April 12, 2019 by Porthos

[DeeCee]

@Porthos Just to clarify. Endgame has already sold more tickets at this point then IW did in total up to the release day and Endgame is currently selling more tickets per comparable day. Correct?

[Porthos]

25 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

@Porthos Just to clarify. Endgame has already sold more tickets at this point then IW did in total up to the release day and Endgame is currently selling more tickets per comparable day. Correct?

Yep yep.

 

Even on the most restrictive measurement (exact same theaters and not any extra ones that EG might be playing in locally) it has already surpassed the final total of IW locally and is just barely ahead of IW on a day-to-day pace the last few days using that comp.

 

====

 

The "adjusted" comp is taking into account that some theaters that were playing IW last year had non-reserved seating at the time and I had no way of tracking the seats sold there.  But for EG, I do have them at a couple more.  Thus I adjust the EG number downward to take into account for that.

 

Edited April 12, 2019 by Porthos

[Finnick]

@Porthos is there any chance that EG stay close to x2 multuplier of AIW at the end? I am really hoping for $75M previews. Is that possible? Thank you.

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

JW2 (day 2)              180 tickets sold that day [0 sellouts/97 showings     |   9338/10113 seats left    | 7.66% sold]

Pika (JW adj)* (day 2)     49 tickets sold that day [0 sellouts/69 showings     |    6461/6650 seats left     | 2.84% sold]

FB2 (day 2)              150 tickets sold that day [0 sellouts/94 showings     |  12571/13377 seats left   | 6.03% sold] 

Pika (FBadj)** (day 2)     49 tickets sold that day [0 sellouts/69 showings     |    6972/7163 seats left     | 2.67% sold]    

*  Pika (JW adj) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom

**Pika (FB adj) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Crimes of Grindelwald

Since people are paying extra special attention to my posts tonight (and thanks for that 👍), an explanation of the above.

 

I've mentioned too many times that a couple of theaters locally switched to all reserved seating in the last calendar year.  For most of the films I tracked last year, it didn't matter, as they were all on the same page.  But starting with Venom, I had full tracking at one theater and starting with Captain Marvel, I had tracking info from the second theater.  

 

Thus I am splitting up the adjustment here between JW2 (which was minus two sources of info) and FB2 (which was missing one source of info).

 

At the moment since Pika Pika is selling in such a low amount, it really is splitting hairs (hares???).  But it's going to matter eventually as time goes on, so I figured I'd better split it now in this chart.

 

===

 

As for bringing in other comps eventually?  Eh, maybe, maybe not.  Once/if the ball starts rolling, I might rope in some other comps if they look right (and before one asks, I only have the last couple of days of AM&tW and Venom).  But I'm mostly in uncharted waters here when it comes to comps.

 

But, hey, gotta start somewhere with certain types of movies, no?

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, Finnick said:

@Porthos is there any chance that EG stay close to x2 multuplier of AIW at the end? I am really hoping for $75M previews. Is that possible? Thank you.

Endgame  is surprising me nearly daily, so I'll never say never.  But the record for previews is 57 million.  Let EG shoot for that first.

 

===

 

Also, that would require approx 27,000 tickets sold locally on the adjusted counter at the bare minimum.  The adjusted counter currently is at 19.7k seats available.  That number will go up.

 

Up enough to sell 27k worth of tickets?  

 

Hmmm.  How to put it? Don't bet the mortgage is how I would put it.

[el sid]

MT before the Friday update:

#1 Avengers: Endgame 35.4%
#2 Shazam 12.9%
#3 Little 6.2%
#4 Pet Sematary 6.1%
#5 Dumbo 6%

[cdsacken]

Nice maybe shazam will have a strong weekend after all. Would love 30+

[Matthew]

17 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Nice maybe shazam will have a strong weekend after all. Would love 30+

I don't think 30M is possible now. My guess for Max is around 26-27M. 

[Marathon]

Where the, ahem, hell is Hellboy? At this rate it's going to need a hell lot of walk-ups.

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, Marathon said:

Where the, ahem, hell is Hellboy? At this rate it's going to need a hell lot of walk-ups.

 

Only God knows how hellish its numbers are gonne be this weekend.

[Stewart]

5 minutes ago, Marathon said:

Where the, ahem, hell is Hellboy? At this rate it's going to need a hell lot of walk-ups.

Sidenote, it opened here yesterday in UK.

 

Prime showing in evening, not bad with about 20 people there, though less than half were walkups (I checked an hour before). 

 

To make matters worse, 5 people walked out and never returned, 3 others were on their phone and were disinterested, the rest didn't have much chatter at the end. 

 

Personally, I thought it was not good. It's difficult for me to not enjoy movies, but this was bad. I think <$10m is looking certain by now, I'd expect Little > 2x Hellboy at this rate