The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

So comps.  The Pickachu comp is interesting coz I have to factor in lack of matinees along with PLFs.  So pure comp just doesn't work. It had 90 extra minutes of tracking, but also folks would have bought tickets earlier for Pika PIka.   A pure comp gives 7.18m.  Boosting that gives around 7.5m

 

My comps of Venom/JW2/Solo/AM&tW comp to 7.9/8.4/8.3/8.5.  That seems way too optimistic given other folks reports.  FB2 comps to 6.3m.  That's too pessimistic in the other direction, I think.

 

Normally, I'd call for about 8m in previews based on all my comps.  But I think Sacto is over-performing a bit.  So let's say 7.5m +/- .3m.  I just don't have the guts to call for 8m. Not with those other reports out there.

 

If I miss, I miss. But that's what I'm seeing right now.

 

 

 

[Tinalera]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Aladdin Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [5:00pm - 5:30pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	117	9953	13853	28.15%

 

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:             809

The best comp I have so far might be Detective Pikachu.  I also have less ideal comps with Solo (for Memorial Day Weekend like-for-like), JW2 and FB2.  Other last minute comps in Venom and Ant-Man and the Wasp have been added.  

 

Unadjusted Comps

1.2597x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu at stop of tracking. 

 

Pika Pika: [3:30pm  - 4pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	112	7172	10268	30.15%

Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day:       447

 

NOTE:::  Since I stopped Detective Pikachu tracking 90 minutes earlier due to it having 4pm previews (instead of 6pm), I have a 3:30 - 4:00 comp behind a spoiler box for a pure like-for-like comparison:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Aladdin Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (Pikachu Comp) [3:30pm - 4:00pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	117	10307	13853	25.67%

 

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:         455

 

Pikachu Time-Based Comp

1.1453x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu at stop of Pikachu tracking. 

 

Pika Pika: [3:30pm  - 4pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	112	7172	10268	30.15%

Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day:       447

 

 

Adjusted Comps

.5916x as many tickets sold as Solo at stop of tracking.

.5499x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom at stop of tracking.

.7438x as many tickets sold as Ant-Man and the Wasp at stop of tracking.

.7906x as many tickets sold as Venom at stop of tracking.

.6961x as many tickets sold as Crimes of Grindelwald at stop of tracking.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

More Detailed Final Comps:

Solo: [4pm - 5pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	5	143	7732	13521	42.81%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm      :       486

 

JW2: [5:30pm - 6:15pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	147	7487	13715	45.41%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:           1275

 

AM&tW: [5:00pm - 5:30pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	114	6515	11120	41.41%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:            1070

 

Aladdin (JW)*: [5:00pm - 5:40pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	117	8544	11969	28.62%

*  Aladdin (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom, Solo, and AM&tW

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:      654

 

==========

 

Venom: [4:15pm - 4:50pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	127	8736	13229	33.96%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:            1012

 

FB2: [4:10pm - 4:55pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	135	10784	15887	32.12%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:             756

 

Aladdin (FB)*: [5:00pm - 5:30pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	117	9135	12687	28.00%

*Aladdin (FB) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Crimes of Grindelwald and Venom

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:             706

I will never not be amazed when i see these posts. Just amazing. The fact you do greater sacramento thats a lot of theatres and a lot of seats. Maybe one day ill tackle sw ontario or just greater toronto. 

 

Great work 😂

[Tentatek]

Aladdin coming to surprise??? (Like yesterday’s critical acclaim RT scores?)💃

 

 

Edited May 24, 2019 by Tentatek

[Porthos]

The one thing that I think is in Aladdin's favor locally is that it sold over 300 tickets region wide from the 3:30-4:00 window to 5:00-5:30 one.  And I double checked my revision history to see any sign of data errors.  Couldn't see any.

 

That suggests that yes Virginia, this might be a walkup movie.  If not to the tune of some of the others I've tracked.  Locally at least.  One's milage may vary and so forth.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

So comps.  The Pickachu comp is interesting coz I have to factor in lack of matinees along with PLFs.  So pure comp just doesn't work. It had 90 extra minutes of tracking, but also folks would have bought tickets earlier for Pika PIka.   A pure comp gives 7.18m.  Boosting that gives around 7.5m

 

My comps of Venom/JW2/Solo/AM&tW comp to 7.9/8.4/8.3/8.5.  That seems way too optimistic given other folks reports.  FB2 comps to 6.3m.  That's too pessimistic in the other direction, I think.

 

Normally, I'd call for about 8m in previews based on all my comps.  But I think Sacto is over-performing a bit.  So let's say 7.5m +/- .3m.  I just don't have the guts to call for 8m. Not with those other reports out there.

 

If I miss, I miss. But that's what I'm seeing right now.

 

 

 

I think it lands in the $7-8M (or slightly above it) range. It's even selling well for the later shows here (not too surprising since it has 4 quadrant appeal but still).

[Cap]

Aladdin

Thursday Previews (Final Update)

 

Aladdin - Thursday Previews - Final 8PM EST
	5.22	5.23	Total	%	+ Sold	+ Seats
Lincoln Square 13	737	836	1896	44.09%	99	0
Cinemagic Chain	55	121	1390	8.71%	66	54

 

 

Thursday Comps
Movie	Sold	Total
Lincoln Square 13
Pika Pika	613	1453
John Wick 3	675	1586
Cinemagic Chain
John Wick 3	186	758
Pika Pika	158	994

 

• So, I went to dinner and that happened.
   
• I'm not going to do estimates, because neither Pika Pika nor John Wick 3 had IMAX screenings (prices) at these theaters.  If I had a guestimate, 5.5M for Previews.  But Deadline's lowball predictions of 75M 4-Day don't look so "you're drunk, go home" as when they first posted them.  
   
• It feels like Aladdin's been a problem child for Disney since development.  They've never been able to hit a groove or get on the right side of the social media buzz/narrative.  I don't think there's one thing you can point to.  Maybe it's just the damn Disney Memorial Day Curse.  It is still way too early to start Monday Morning Quarterbacking, even though should yield a robust discussion.  
   
• Totally anecdotally, I went to the 12PM IMAX screening of Captain America: Endgame today.  It's the last showing at our theater in IMAX before Aladdin takes over the screen.  We had about 20 or so people at the screening.  The 6:30PM IMAX of Aladdin tonight finished with 21 tickets sold.  I'm not saying I would've been on the phone with the distributors trying to keep AEG on that IMAX screen for MDW, but, you know, Aladdin or AEG, it's all Disney's money.  At least THAT way, maybe Disney would've made some of it this weekend.
  
   
  
  (And LOL, I know it doesn't work that way, but the point stands.)
   
• Local Drive-In, Open FFS Only: Aladdin and Avengers: Endgame.  If we end up going, I will make sure to provide a parking lot report. 😉

Edited May 24, 2019 by captainwondyful

[JB33]

7 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

I will never not be amazed when i see these posts. Just amazing. The fact you do greater sacramento thats a lot of theatres and a lot of seats. Maybe one day ill tackle sw ontario or just greater toronto. 

 

Great work 😂

No kidding. Great work indeed. All your time and effort is much appreciated @Porthos!

[JB33]

2 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

Aladdin

Thursday Previews (Final Update)

 

Aladdin - Thursday Previews - Final 8PM EST
	5.22	5.23	Total	%	+ Sold	+ Seats
Lincoln Square 13	737	836	1896	44.09%	99	0
Cinemagic Chain	55	121	1390	8.71%	66	54

 

 

Thursday Comps
Movie	Sold	Total
Lincoln Square 13
Pika Pika	613	1453
John Wick 3	675	1586
Cinemagic Chain
John Wick 3	186	758
Pika Pika	158	994

 

• So, I went to dinner and that happened.
   
• I'm not going to do estimates, because neither Pika Pika nor John Wick 3 had IMAX screenings (prices) at these theaters.  If I had a guestimate, 5.5M for Previews.  But Deadline's lowball predictions of 75M 4-Day don't look so "you're drunk, go home" as when they first posted them.  
   
• It feels like Aladdin's been a problem child for Disney since development.  They've never been able to hit a groove or get on the right side of the social media buzz/narrative.  I don't think there's one thing you can point to.  Maybe it's just the damn Disney Memorial Day Curse.  It is still way too early to start Monday Morning Quartering, even though should yield a robust discussion.  
   
• Totally anecdotally, I went to the 12PM IMAX screening of Captain America: Endgame today.  It's the last showing at our theater in IMAX before Aladdin takes over the screen.  We had about 20 or so people at the screening.  The 6:30PM IMAX of Aladdin tonight finished with 21 tickets sold.  I'm not saying I would've been on the phone with the distributors trying to keep AEG on that IMAX screen for MDW, but, you know, Aladdin or AEG, it's all Disney's money.  At this THAT way, maybe Disney would've made some of it this weekend.
  
   
  
  (And LOL, I know it doesn't work that way, but the point stands.)
   
• Local Drive-In, Open FFS Only: Aladdin and Avengers: Endgame.  If we end up going, I will make sure to provide a parking lot report. 😉

Here's another poster who puts in a lot of time and effort. Not to mention your enthusiasm is infectious, @captainwondyful.

 

Thanks for everything!

[filmlover]

FWIW it's selling pretty great for tomorrow here. Both the 6:30 and 9:30 in the PLF theater are on track to at least come close to selling out and the 8:30 in the biggest non-PLF theater is on track to be completely full. Could mean it's not very frontloaded and business could be more spread out throughout the weekend (which are selling great too), especially with it being a 4-day holiday (Saturday-to-Sunday drops will be nonexistent, as usual).

[Nova]

@captainwondyful coming in to be the new BKB with her parking lot reports. BOT really is getting blessed this summer 

[Legion Again]

I’ll take 7.9

[Tinalera]

If this does deadline numbers, it will be an interesting mystery where they got their numbers from with other sources suggesting higher. Theu would have seen something no one else did.

 

The ebbs and flows of social media and moviea certainly makes things interesting. We get all thos sales tracking data, trailer views, review sites, twitter....one would think ( for any movie) all this data could give us some reasonable context for prediction. 

 

I can imagine how something like pika or aladdin makes people who do this for a living would make one pull their hair out. And the same ones who have to explain executives.... "Um....we have no idea why this happened"

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, Nova said:

@captainwondyful coming in to be the new BKB with her parking lot reports. BOT really is getting blessed this summer 

@captainwondyful is even kind enough to give us Target parking lot reports too. The true MVP of BOT.

 

 

 

[Cap]

On 5/22/2019 at 8:55 PM, Menor said:

Very odd discrepancy between Fandango and a lot of folks here. Possibly it's bc people here are mostly tracking Thurs, so perhaps Aladdin will have a relatively weak Thursday but a really strong internal multiplier

I thought this too.  So I went into Cinemagic's pre-sales, and it STILL looks weak.  The 6:30PMs are heavy, the others not so much.  For Lincoln Square, the IMAX screen's selling about 25% for the non 7PMs shows.  (This is just eyeball data.)

 

On 5/22/2019 at 9:12 PM, Porthos said:

 

 

1

On 5/22/2019 at 9:12 PM, Porthos said:

This also might just be a local thing, but I noticed that when screen expansion happened over the last couple of days, a lot of them went to post 9pm showings.

Yup.  Lincoln Square added a 10:45PM Standard Showing, and I truly was like WTF.

 

1 hour ago, VanillaSkies said:

 

 

 

1 hour ago, VanillaSkies said:

Out of curiosity, why is Endgame showing such strength today on MT vs. the other holdovers?

As I said in my Aladdin report, Endgame is losing most of its premium screens today.  I specifically got in a showing today knowing that.  I was like, "Mom, I already wrote up those two contracts.  I will sit in the back and keep the phone on if you need me for work.  I can sneak out during Tony's boring scenes.  Peace."  AND THEN -- An hour into the movie she showed up.  "What are you doing here?" "Our client blew us off until 3:30PM."  

 

45 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Here's another poster who puts in a lot of time and effort. Not to mention your enthusiasm is infectious, @captainwondyful.

 

Thanks for everything!

You're very welcome.  I'm a visual person, so I like charts. 

 

37 minutes ago, Nova said:

@captainwondyful coming in to be the new BKB with her parking lot reports. BOT really is getting blessed this summer 

Damn it, you caught me.

 

 

I see some people thinking 7M presales.  I could see that from a premium ticket price boost.  But right now, I'm firmly in camp:

 

 

Edited May 24, 2019 by captainwondyful

[VanillaSkies]

3 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

 

As I said in my Aladdin report, Endgame is losing most of its premium screens today.  I specifically got in a showing today knowing that.  I was like, "Mom, I already wrote up those two contracts.  I will sit in the back and keep the phone on if you need me for work.  I can sneak out during Tony's boring scenes.  Peace."  AND THEN -- An hour into the movie she showed up.  "What are you doing here?" "Our client blew us off until 3:30PM."  

 

 

Haha, this story rocked.

[Mulder]

Aladdin just seems to be absolutely lopsided areas wise. Dying in the Upper Northeast and Washington, doing good in California and Florida.

[nguyenkhoi282]

1 hour ago, VanillaSkies said:

Out of curiosity, why is Endgame showing such strength today on MT vs. the other holdovers?
It's daily gross was very close to Pika yesterday, and today it's almost doubling it on MT.

A Disney release will help another Disney release

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Aladdin just seems to be absolutely lopsided areas wise. Dying in the Upper Northeast and Washington, doing good in California and Florida.

It’s a clusterfuck for the two I have so far:

 

North Shore is definitely overperforming and could double what Pikachu did in presales (never got the 4:00 PM numbers for Pika) but Menominee Falls, which is the second biggest theater in Wisconsin, is looking slightly above Pikachu.

Edited May 24, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord

[keysersoze123]

Looking at http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_daily.txt

I dont see any special boost for Endgame. its looking like selling 15-20% tickets below wednesday. At this point MT.com seems tiny enough that small spike is making it look bigger than otherwise.

 

 

I am really curious where Aladdin previews end up and what is preview to 4-day multi will be. its doing good in Dolby screens. Imax is not close to selling out and rest of PLX like RPX looked terrible from what I could see. I will let Porthos figure out from his PS tracking. This one gonna throw a curveball for sure.

[DAJK]

Recent comps in my area are strange. Only 120% of Dumbo, but 167% Shazam

 

So... 3.1-9.8M. I’m fairly confident in that range, y’all can quote me in the morning  

 

Damn, this must be how deadline does their math