The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

@keysersoze123 There has been a bit of a boost on FFH.  

 

This was it at the 24 hour marker:

Not enough to break into the Top Ten, especially with Discount Tuesday.

 

This is just now:

 

Not quite enough juice to hit ninth yet, but still enough to jump three spots into tenth.

 

Also 1450 vs 2053 is nothing to sneeze at when it comes to an increase, IMO.  Especially with TS4 ramping it up.

Thing is most of that bump was done before reactions dropped. It had an extremely strong morning/early afternoon and the latest increases haven't been too different from that trend. @keysersoze123 it was in the 1400 range yesterday, so today was a strong increase.

[Geo1500]

They said 200M??? I laughed! Now we talking 130-140 and what is next?  

 

@UserHN @Thanos Legion @MovieMan89 @JohnnyGossamer

 

I don't even have a dog-fight with Toy story 4 just didn't care but hey if this goes south you know what is gonna happen.

 

 

 

[UserHN]

10 minutes ago, Geo1500 said:

They said 200M??? I laughed! Now we talking 130-140 and what is next?  

 

@UserHN @Thanos Legion @MovieMan89 @JohnnyGossamer

 

I don't even have a dog-fight with Toy story 4 just didn't care but hey if this goes south you know what is gonna happen.

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Ahh.. why are you taking this as a victory for you when you have more unrealistic predictions? Remember your sub-$100M and sub-$50M predictions? Yeah, we remember clearly. You even repeated that sub-$50M can happen. Lol

Edited June 20, 2019 by UserHN

[Geo1500]

13 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Ahh.. why are you taking this as a victory for you when you have more unrealistic predictions? Remember your sub-$100M and sub-$50M predictions? Yeah, we remember clearly. You even repeated that sub-$50M can happen. Lol

 

I said it was possible. I never gave any over the top predictions. However I was never on the 200M club it was just ridiculous and I was called out for it

Edited June 20, 2019 by Geo1500

[UserHN]

13 minutes ago, Geo1500 said:

 

I said it was possible. I never gave any over the top predictions. However I was never on the 200M club it was just ridiculous and I was called out for it

You were called out for your ridiculous sub-$100M and sub-$50M predictions. Many of us here aren't on the $200M club and we never got called out. We were expecting Dory numbers. You on the other hand expects TS4 to open on the level of SLOP2. It was right for people here to call you out.

[Geo1500]

11 minutes ago, UserHN said:

You were called out for your ridiculous sub-$100M and sub-$50M predictions. Many of us here aren't on the $200M club and we never got called out. We were expecting Dory numbers. You on the other hand expects TS4 to open on the level of SLOP2. It was right for people here to call you out.

My sub-100M was never a prediction but rather a possibility that can still happen if there is much less walk-ups in the weekend. Your telling me your prediction was 135M? Don't make me back-track your quotes. I thought I saw you somewhere dropping big numbers around here if memory serves me right  

Edited June 20, 2019 by Geo1500

[UserHN]

1 minute ago, Geo1500 said:

My sub-100M was never a prediction but rather a possibility that can still happen if there is much less walk-ups in the weekend. Your telling me your prediction was 135M? Don't make me back-track your quotes. I thought I saw you somewhere  dropping big numbers around here if memory serves me right  

My prediction was Dory numbers up to $150M OW. Oh sure, go on. Quote me on my big numbers. I'll wait. Lol. And make sure not to edit it.

[Porthos]

 

 

===

 

Like, take it to the TS4 thread, maybe?  Or even better PMs? 

 

Now I'm just a punter on the sidelines, but I'd really rather not have to wade through a pages long argument about who predicted what when it comes to movies in this thread.

[Geo1500]

22 minutes ago, UserHN said:

My prediction was Dory numbers up to $150M OW. Oh sure, go on. Quote me on my big numbers. I'll wait. Lol. And make sure not to edit it.

 

I will gather intel. I will see your ass on Monday POST-weekend

 

Edited June 20, 2019 by Geo1500

[keysersoze123]

40 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

===

 

Like, take it to the TS4 thread, maybe?  Or even better PMs? 

 

Now I'm just a punter on the sidelines, but I'd really rather not have to wade through a pages long argument about who predicted what when it comes to movies in this thread.

I dont know why anyone would argue with him. His posts should not be taken seriously. its like Kal and his predictions.

[Porthos]

One hour to go:

 

Quote

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-18 23:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	35.698%	23452	Toy Story 4
2	09.973%	6552	The Secret Life of Pets 2
3	08.724%	5731	Aladdin (2019)
4	07.156%	4701	Men in Black International
5	04.471%	2937	Rocketman
6	03.615%	2375	Dark Phoenix
7	03.396%	2231	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
8	03.315%	2178	Spider-Man Far From Home (2019)
9	03.265%	2145	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
10	03.005%	1974	Childs Play (2019)
11	02.437%	1601	Shaft (2019)
12	02.303%	1513	Avengers Endgame (2019)
13	02.146%	1410	Late Night (2019)
14	01.565%	1028	Ma (2019)
15	01.285%	844	Emanuel
16	00.976%	641	The Dead Dont Die
17	00.656%	431	Anna (2019)
18	00.616%	405	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
19	00.566%	372	Booksmart
20	00.483%	317	Spider-Man Far From Home  (2019)
21	00.408%	268	Men in Black International –
26	00.161%	106	Toy Story 4 Opening Night Fan Event
28	00.143%	94	Aladdin
40	00.043%	28	Spider-Man Far From Home --
68	00.014%	9	Toy Story Marathon

 

FFH combined is currently at #6 for the day (2523). Doesn't look to have enough juice to pass Rocketman for #5.  

 

Regardless, social media embargo drop obviously had an affect.

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, Geo1500 said:

 

I will gather intel. I will see your ass on Monday POST-weekend

 

The amount of crow you are going to have to eat (sub 50 possible, sub 100 likely) is amazing. Worse than Alita 1 billion clubs. Yet you stand so resolute in your wrongness. It's incredible.

[keysersoze123]

20 minutes ago, Porthos said:

One hour to go:

 

 

FFH combined is currently at #6 for the day (2523). Doesn't look to have enough juice to pass Rocketman for #5.  

 

Regardless, social media embargo drop obviously had an affect.

That was always expected. Didn't Cap Marvel almost double its PS on a similar day. Next day you will see a drop.

[Cap]

Toy Story 4

Thursday Previews

 

Data For Tuesday, June 18:

 

Toy Story 4
Date	5.29	6.3	6.5	6.6	6.1	6.13	6.17	6.18	Total	%	Sold	Seats
Lincoln Square	340	420	441	485	532	--	793	899	3120	28.81	106	650
Cinemagic	--	15	17	17	23	26	64	78	2434	3.2	12	0

 

Data for Wednesday, June 19:

 

Toy Story 4
Date	5.29	6.3	6.5	6.6	6.1	6.13	6.17	6.18	6.19	Total	%	Sold
Lincoln Square	340	420	441	485	532	--	793	899	989	3120	31.69	90
Cinemagic	--	15	17	17	23	26	64	78	122	2434	5.01	44

 

 

I ran some comps, but my only conclusion was that May's box office has been terrible.  Right now it's running

 

Comps for Final Sales
Comp	Sold	%
Lincoln Square 13
Toy Story	989	--
Aladdin	836	118%
Zilla	1102	90%
Dark Phoenix	1383	72%
Thorkyrie	653	151%
Southern Maine Cinemagic
Toy Story	122	--
Aladdin	121	101%
Zilla	201	61%
Dark Phoenix	99	123%
Thorkyrie	109	112%

 

So with the terrible box office that's coming out like 8.5M at the highest.  So, I don't know.  It's definitely slowed down.  Couple things I know:

• Most of the premium seats at Lincoln Square are sold.  You'll be either front row of Dolby or in a Standard Showing Tomorrow night.  Frankly, this isn't the type of movie I need to rush out to see enough that I'll take a bad seat.  Might hurt walk-ups tomorrow.
• At Cinemagic IMAX Theater, the standard showing at 7PM has more tickets sold than the IMAX showing at 7PM.  That's very unusual for the IMAX theater and does support what Porthos was saying about PLF light.
• I so might for giggles dig up some AEG comps.  I will see how my day unfolds tomorrow.

Edited June 20, 2019 by captainwondyful

[Porthos]

Toy Story 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 Day and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	149	12268	16865	27.26%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today:               1

Total Showings Added Today:            2

Total Seats Added Today:               365

Total Seats Sold Today:                  816

 

Unadjusted Comps

2.0368x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 1 day before release.

1.8344x as many tickets sold as Aladdin 1 day before release.

2.3124x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters 1 day before release.

 

T-1:

Pika       472 tickets sold [0 sellouts/112 showings |    8001/10258 seats left     |  22.00% sold]

Aladdin  580 tickets sold [0 sellouts/117 showings |  11420/13853 seats left    |  18.00% sold]

KotM     351 tickets sold [0 sellouts/125 showings |  13495/15483 seats left    |  12.84% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

0.9914x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 1 day before release.      

1.5754x as many tickets sold as Ant-Man and the Wasp 1 day before release.      

1.5254x as many tickets sold as Venom 1 day before release.      

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

T-1:

JW2            768 tickets sold [0 sellouts/147 showings |    9523/13715 seats left  | 30.57% sold]

AM&tW       347 tickets sold [0 sellouts/112 showings |    8258/10896 seats left  | 24.21% sold]

TS4 (JW)     711 tickets sold  [1 sellout/149 showings  |  10478/14634 seats left  | 28.40% sold]

TS4 (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom and Ant-Man and the Wasp.

Venom       498 tickets sold [0 sellouts/122 showings |  10414/13170 seats left  | 20.93% sold]

TS4 (V)       729 tickets sold  [1 sellout/149 showings |  11250/15454 seats left  | 27.20% sold]

TS4 (V) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Venom.

[Porthos]

Far From Home Greater Sacramento Area MIDNIGHT SCREENINGS Seat Report: T-12 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	17	2348	2796	16.02%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      27

 

Comp against Crimes of Grindelwand Tuesday Limited Engagement Sneaks:

 

0.8665x times as many tickets sold as FB2's sneaks 12 days before their showings.

 

T-12 days:

FB2 sneaks       9 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/6 showings   | 882/1399 seats left  |  36.95% sold]

[Porthos]

On 6/18/2019 at 10:59 PM, Porthos said:

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-18 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	20.112%	13802	Toy Story 4 [combined]
2	14.506%	9955	The Secret Life of Pets 2
3	12.161%	8346	Men in Black International [combined]
4	11.535%	7916	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
5	05.568%	3821	Dark Phoenix
6	05.001%	3432	Rocketman
7	04.594%	3153	Shaft (2019)
8	04.523%	3104	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
9	03.949%	2710	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
10	02.822%	1937	Late Night (2019)

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-19 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	37.192%	24706	Toy Story 4 [combined]
2	09.741%	6471	The Secret Life of Pets 2
3	08.692%	5774	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
4	06.884%	4573	Men in Black International
5	04.445%	2953	Rocketman
6       03.924% 2606    Spider-Man Far From Home (2019) [combined] 
7	03.402%	2260	Dark Phoenix
8	03.249%	2158	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
9	03.193%	2121	Childs Play (2019)
10	03.182%	2114	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum

[john2000]

26 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-19 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	37.192%	24706	Toy Story 4 [combined]
2	09.741%	6471	The Secret Life of Pets 2
3	08.692%	5774	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
4	06.884%	4573	Men in Black International
5	04.445%	2953	Rocketman
6       03.924% 2606    Spider-Man Far From Home (2019) [combined] 
7	03.402%	2260	Dark Phoenix
8	03.249%	2158	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
9	03.193%	2121	Childs Play (2019)
10	03.182%	2114	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum

good jump for both ts4 and ffh  ?

[Eric Prime]

Fandango App

Monday

Tues

Wed

Thursday

Truth Or Dare

385

760

2,133

Upgrade	9	119	522
Adrift	63	308	1,268

Hereditary	659	1,178	3,181
Hotel Artemis	26	166	520
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337

Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266
Sicario 2	788	1,282	3,403

Antman & The Wasp

6,613

5,990

11,108

Unfriended

71

240

975

Christopher Robin

1,560

2,442

5,355

11,509

Slender Man

177

418

1,091

3,737

Kin

21

141

263

741

Hellfest

195

304

661

Nutcracker

1,659

1,949

2,567

5,518

Fantastic Beasts

8,956

14,238

21,861

31,880

Possession of Hannah Grace

105

285

893

3,053

Spider-Verse

3,715

5,208

9,858

19,972

Escape Room

111

368

1,543

7,297

Replicas

21

133

336

1,002

Lego Movie 2

2,552

4,130

8,601

13,320

The Prodigy

161

359

847

2,288

How to Train Your Dragon 3

3,724

6,674

12,935

21,313

Greta

120

287

824

1,962

Captive State

60

172

402

1,203

Dumbo

3,069

4,624

9,218

16,140

The Curse of La Llorona

896

1,159

2,704

8,279

Aladdin

9,948

12,038

21,152

31,549

Toy Story 4	12,605	13,388	24,517
Child's Play	657	923	2,113
Anna	70	186	450

 

Toy Story

Tuesday

112% of Fantastic Beasts 2 (69.7M)

242% of Spider-Verse (87.9M)

285% of Lego 2 (94.4M)

189% of Dragon 3 (104.3M)

116% of Aladdin (106.1M 3-Day, 135.4M 4-Day)

458% of Christopher Robin (112.6M)

62% of Incredibles 2 (113.9M)

266% of Dumbo (122.3M)

105% of Jurassic World 2 (156M)

221% of Ant-Man 2 (167.3M)

955% of Nutcracker (194.4M)

 

Day 11-4

123% of Aladdin (112.6M 3-Day, 143.7M 4-Day)

62% of Incredibles 2 (113M)

361% of Lego 2 (123M)

240% of Dragon 3 (131.9M)

327% of Dumbo (150.6M)

 

Day 18-4

123% of Aladdin (112.4M 3-Day, 143.4M 4-Day)

62% of Incredibles 2 (112.8M)

355% of Lego 2 (121.3M)

235% of Dragon 3 (129.6M)

310% of Dumbo  (142.5M)

 

Well, it did see a good-sized increase. But I don't think that increase was enough to compensate that weak Tuesday. I don't know. I'm trying to be optimistic, but this doesn't seem to indicate a breakout for the time being. But I could be wrong. Y'all figure this shiz out.

 

Child's Play

66% of Hereditary (9M)

62% of Sicario 2 (11.8M)

242% of The Prodigy (14.6M)

237% of Hannah Grace (15.1M)

320% of Hell Fest (16.4M)

99% of Truth or Dare (18.5M)

78% of La Llorona (20.6M)

194% of Slender Man (22M)

137% of Escape Room (25M)

 

This dropped down from yesterday again for all comps. It's still on the acceptable side I guess.

 

Anna

55% of Greta (2.4M)

86% of Hotel Artemis (2.8M)

134% of Replicas (3.2M)

112% of Captive State (3.5M)

86% of Upgrade (4M)

35% of Adrift (4.1M)

171% of Kin (5.2M)

187% of Unfriended 2 (6.8M)

 

LOL

[Porthos]

21 minutes ago, john2000 said:

good jump for both ts4 and ffh  ?

FFH? Yes, IMO.

 

TS4?  Well, compared to I2 it's still doing about 62% oi it, which it has been for a while.  That'd be a preview number of 11.6m.  A bit under the 12m but within variance.  

 

Everything else recently... isn't as great.  Especially Aladdin which is a downright terrible comp (8.11m Thr).  Just have to see tomorrow where it ultimately lands.

 

EDIT:::: @CoolEric258 just threw in his other comps so I'd take his thoughts as well as he thinks more about Fandango than I do.

Edited June 20, 2019 by Porthos