The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[john2000]

may i remind everyone that with even 13 previews the movie will hit 145-155 ? so much for all the doom and gloom

[MrFanaticGuy34]

2 minutes ago, john2000 said:

...................... with 13 previews the movie can hit 150+, just stop the overeaction, like many other people do, presales are not everything, plus i mean really, bc of one day, some people yesterday was saying 150 and now bc of one day they will say 120, its becomes ridiculous at this point

True. Fair enough. Though somebody said the presale-numbers for TS4 today is really bad (which i don’t believe they actually are). Aren’t people saving their money for this film after not wanting to spend them on the lesser films before it? Isn’t that how it should be happening?

[Porthos]

So looking at @CoolEric258's archive list and thinking about it for a while, I think I know why JW:FK is so low compared to most of the other things on the list.  It had to deal with Incredibles 2 first week in its MTW week of release time period.

 

Look at the respective number sets for I2 and JW:

 

Incredibles 2

20,872

23,430

39,337

 

Jurassic World 2

9,310

12,761

23,266

 

 

Just eyeballing those you would think there was NO WAY one came within 3m of the other.  But look at this:

 

This is what I2 faced in its runup: 

Jun. 8–14

$165,853,327

+12.5%

$181,013,776

+14.6%

131

Ocean's 8

23

 

This is what JW:FK faced in its runup:

Jun. 15–21

$388,703,941

+134.4%

$401,428,059

+121.8%

124

Incredibles 2

24

 

One of these is not like the other. And since we know Pulse is capping things, that very probably explains why JW:FK looked so crappy in its run-up.

 

Now this doesn't help TS4 any.  In fact, it kinda hurts it since a JW:FK comp isn't reflective of what TS4 is currently facing.  At the same time, looking purely at the weekends, I think THIS week has slightly more competition overall than what I2 faced.

 

Going on just the weekend now, this was the weekend before I2 debut:

 

Jun. 8–10

$112,264,809

+11.9%

$120,294,387

+12.7%

111

Ocean's 8

23

 

Here is the weekend that just passed:

 

Jun. 14–16

$129,860,663

-19.3%

$135,911,434

-18.0%

98

Men in Black International

24

 

 

It's not much of a difference.  But it might be enough to boost TS4 relative to I2 slightly.  Not a huge amount.  But enough to shift the needle a little, I think.

 

Just another thing to keep in mind

 

=====

 

I'm not saying all of this to put 15m back on the table.  Hell, I'm not even saying it to put 14m on the table.  But it is a factor that we might want to think about as we look at an I2 comp from last year.

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

True. Fair enough. Though somebody said the presale-numbers for TS4 today is really bad (which i don’t believe they actually are). Aren’t people saving their money for this film after not wanting to spend them on the lesser films before it? Isn’t that how it should be happening?

again to say what the ow will be based on one day, is not the right way to do it,we are talking about animation here, these kind of movies are not like a sh movie in terms of pre sales, i2 was different,this is the reason why i am saying wait for the previews, to come for example if ts4 has 14 previews, then 140 ow is the floor, and thats with i2 multi of 10, ts4 will probably have a higher mutli

[john2000]

6 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

If you take Dory pre-sales in account, and not Incredibles 2, $200mn can be done.

In a certain matric, Dory was $6mn and did $45.5mn True Friday i.e. 7.6x, while Incredibles 2 was $11mn and did $52.76mn i.e. 4.8x.

 

Toy Story 4, from pre-sales seems like will be around $7.5-8.5mn in that matric, which will point toward $57-64mn using Dory while median of two will be at $49-55mn. I prefer;

$14mn Previews

$52mn Friday

$57mn Saturday

$47mn Sunday

 

$170mn

good breakdown

[Fanboy]

What is with everyone acting like under 150M OW would be a disaster for TS4? Only 13 months ago the record for an animated feature was 135M OW. Even the low end of presale comparisons indicate that it will open higher than TS3 which need I remind people was the highest grossing film of 2010. We're talking about a 24 year old franchise aimed at children that is in its fourth entry. For what we're pretty sure will only be the second biggest animated film of the year I'd be pretty happy with 120M OW/400M total. 

[Porthos]

38 minutes ago, Fanboy said:

What is with everyone acting like under 150M OW would be a disaster for TS4? Only 13 months ago the record for an animated feature was 135M OW. Even the low end of presale comparisons indicate that it will open higher than TS3 which need I remind people was the highest grossing film of 2010. We're talking about a 24 year old franchise aimed at children that is in its fourth entry. For what we're pretty sure will only be the second biggest animated film of the year I'd be pretty happy with 120M OW/400M total. 

Well not everyone.

 

But I kinda think folks might still be having something of a hangover from Endgame and getting back to 'normal' sized OWs is taking some adjusting.  The string of OW disappointments the last six weeks (aside from Wick 3 and to a degree Aladdin*) sure hasn't helped matters.  Folks are jonesing for another big OW breakout, IMO, and were looking forward to the possibility with TS4.

 

It doesn't help that I2 pulled the equivalent of a TFA or IW when it comes to animation last year.  Even if folks shouldn't, some might be using it as a benchmark of sorts.

 

* Yes Aladdin far exceeded reduced by months of bad buzz expectations. But I will die on the hill that a 90m 3/day OW is nothing to write home about when it comes to that type of movie - especially given the great legs it's had.  If Disney had played its cards 'right' the year previously, it probably could have hit 110 to 120 on the 3day.  Never know for sure, of course.

Edited June 19, 2019 by Porthos

[john2000]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Well not everyone.

 

But I kinda think folks might still be having something of a hangover from Endgame and getting back to 'normal' sized OWs is taking some adjusting.  The string of OW disappointments the last six weeks (aside from Wick 3 and to a degree Aladdin) sure hasn't helped matters.  Folks are jonesing for another big OW breakout, IMO, and were looking forward to the possibility with TS4.

 

It doesn't help that I2 pulled the equivalent of a TFA or IW when it comes to animation last year.  Even if folks shouldn't, some might be using it as a benchmark of sorts.

still though, people are panicking way too easily, i mean yesterday people thought 150 , and now today is like i dont think that it will hit 130 ?? , like wtf ????

Edited June 19, 2019 by john2000

[cdsacken]

That's what many on this board do. I still think 150 is very doable. Wom will be fantastic.

[Sunny Max]

11 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

That's what many on this board do. I still think 150 is very doable. Wom will be fantastic.

Wom will be fantastic ... walkups could be insane as well 

 

$150 M locked .. IMO 

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

On 6/6/2019 at 8:17 AM, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

WEEKLY UPDATE - Cineplex Scotiabank Montreal

 

TOY STORY 4 - THURSDAY JUNE 20

 

IMAX

7:00pm - 32/343

9:45pm - 6/343

REGULAR 3D

6:30pm - 19/390

9:15pm - 2/390

Didn't update last week because there was barely any movement but it looks better now. Looking forward to seeing the final totals later tonight.

 

TOY STORY 4 - THURSDAY JUNE 20

 

IMAX

7:00pm - 113/343

9:45pm - 31/343

REGULAR 3D

6:30pm - 52/390

9:15pm - 6/390

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

@Menor could you remind me which akvalley link you were using to see TS4's Tuesday pre-sales for next week?  At least I seem to recall you mentioning you saw that at some point.

 

I got a couple of the links for the daily ones, but they only have Thr-Sun at the moment.  

It was the report page but the numbers for that week were removed on Monday and replaced with only Th-Sun

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

What were final OD for CM and EG.

CM: 137268

EG: 167070 (but this number is highly inaccurate due to the multiple Pulse crashes on the first day and in its release week)

Edited June 19, 2019 by Menor

[CJohn]

200M or bomb. Nothing else.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Also, you guys realize that Fandango/Pulse has been underselling TS4 relative to Wang's MTC, and that if it hits Porthos' 13 million low end, then there's pretty much no way it goes below 130 million right?

[superduperm]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

Also, you guys realize that Fandango/Pulse has been underselling TS4 relative to Wang's MTC, and that if it hits Porthos' 13 million low end, then there's pretty much no way it goes below 130 million right?

Yeah the more I think about it the more I can’t see this opening below $125M. I’d be a combination of devastated and shocked if it did.

 

It’s gotta at least beat TS3 adjusted IMHO. TS3 did have a solid opening but people were calling it slightly underwhelming at the time because it didn’t beat Shrek the Third’s opening like everyone wanted to. I’m hoping history doesn’t repeat itself here (unless that means it opens $15-20M below I2, in which case that’s actually a big win).

[MrFanaticGuy34]

5 minutes ago, superduperm said:

Yeah the more I think about it the more I can’t see this opening below $125M. I’d be a combination of devastated and shocked if it did.

 

It’s gotta at least beat TS3 adjusted IMHO. TS3 did have a solid opening but people were calling it slightly underwhelming at the time because it didn’t beat Shrek the Third’s opening like everyone wanted to. I’m hoping history doesn’t repeat itself here (unless that means it opens $15-20M below I2, in which case that’s actually a big win).

Not only that but TS3 didn’t even beat Shrek 2’s DOM-gross despite better reception, WOM, and a more open June back in 2010.

 

Thankfully, Finding Dory put an end on both of Shrek’s records. OW-record from Shrek the Third & DOM-record from Shrek 2.

Edited June 19, 2019 by MrFanaticGuy34

[superduperm]

Just now, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Not only that but TS3 didn’t even beat Shrek 2’s DOM-gross despite better reception, WOM, and a more open June back in 2010.

Became the first animated film to cross $1B worldwide, though. If there’s a legacy I would take, it’s that one.

 

I could see TS4 going a similar route, honestly. Open with a “disappointing” $130M and then a few months later it passes Frozen.

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Not only that but TS3 didn’t even beat Shrek 2’s DOM-gross despite better reception, WOM, and a more open June back in 2010.

 

Thankfully, Finding Dory put an end on both of Shrek’s records. OW-record from Shrek the Third & DOM-record from Shrek 2.

Shrek 2 > Finding Dory

[FlashMaster659]

18 hours ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Toy Story 4 - AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 151/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 166/203

8:45 PM - 170/203

11:30 PM - 79/203

 

3D Dine-In Full Service

 

6:30 PM - 51/78

8:30 PM NEW - 11/60

9:30 PM - 29/78

 

RealD 3D

 

7:45 PM - 34/167

8:15 PM NEW - 2/79

10:45 PM - 0/167

11:15 PM NEW - 2/55

 

2D Dine-In Full Service

 

6:00 PM NEW - 38/63

7:30 PM NEW - 30/63

9:00 PM NEW - 6/63

10:30 PM NEW - 6/63

 

2D

 

7:00 PM - 162/217

8:00 PM NEW - 20/167

9:45 PM - 109/217

11:00 PM NEW - 0/167

 

Total

 

1066(+177)/2313(+780) (46.1%)

 

Toy Story 4 - AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 153/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 169/203

8:45 PM - 171/203

11:30 PM - 86/203

 

3D Dine-In Full Service

 

6:30 PM - 50/78

8:30 PM - 11/60

9:30 PM - 29/78

 

RealD 3D

 

7:45 PM - 39/167

8:15 PM - 2/79

10:00 PM NEW - 1/114

10:45 PM - 0/167

11:15 PM - 2/55

 

2D Dine-In Full Service

 

6:00 PM - 41/63

7:30 PM - 39/63

9:00 PM - 28/63

10:30 PM - 21/63

 

2D

 

7:00 PM - 164/217

7:15 PM NEW - 20/114

8:00 PM - 48/167

9:45 PM - 115/217

10:45 PM NEW - 8/167

11:00 PM - 5/167

 

Total

 

1202(+136)/2541(+228) (47.3%)