The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Inceptionzq]

1 hour ago, DCfanboy4Life said:

I’d like to get in on the action for joker! What do I need to do to keep you guys updated on my city 

Pick a theater, or multiple theaters if you’d prefer. Use word, excel, or an alternative equivalent to these two to record the data. Use Fandango, Atom tickets, or the theater’s website to go through each showtime and count the number of seats in the theater, and the number of seats sold. Record them in word or excel. Below, I have examples of how I did it with Excel and Word. Try to pick a time that will best suit you everyday so it will be recorded every 24 hours.

 

If you think you might want to do this for more movies, I’d recommend you make a separate word document to record the count for each day. 
 

For example:

Joker: 
Day 2: 1(seats sold)/5(total seats in theater(s))

Day 1: 5/10

 

The day number being the number of days until previews start.
 

If you do multiple theaters, I’d even record the individual tickets sold for each theater. 

Joker: 

Day 2: Three theaters: 1, 0, 0: 1/5(No theater X or theater Y)

Day 1: Five theaters: 1, 0, 0, 0, 4: 5/10

 

Make sure you record the theater counts in the same order every time so you know which ones are which. And record which theaters don’t have showtimes that day. I bold everything but the individual theater counts so it’s clear that they are the individual theaters.

 

Excel example(imagine there are borders around each box):

15 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Joker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24
Dolby:
4:00 PM	10	217
7:00 PM	89	217
10:00 PM	19	217
Prime:
4:30 PM	5	187
7:30 PM	24	187
10:30 PM	5	187
2D:
5:00 PM	4	158
5:30 PM	0	92
6:30 PM	5	94
8:00 PM	12	158
8:30 PM	4	92
9:30 PM	0	94
11:00 PM	0	158
Total	177	2058
AMC Highlands 24
IMAX:
4:30 PM	4	384
7:30 PM	10	384
10:30 PM	0	384
Dolby:
4:00 PM	11	210
7:00 PM	59	210
10:00 PM	10	210
2D:
5:15 PM	0	159
5:45 PM	0	159
6:15 PM	2	85
6:30 PM	2	85
7:15 PM	0	52
8:15 PM	0	159
8:45 PM	2	159
9:15 PM	0	85
9:30 PM	0	85
10:15 PM	2	52
Total	102	2862

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
598	103	14616	4.09%	8	81

Word example:

On 9/19/2019 at 7:31 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Ad Astra Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster Promenade 24:

IMAX:

7 PM – 81/411(+40)

10 PM – 23/411(+11)

2D:

7 PM – 40/94(+24)

10:30 PM – 15/94(+11)

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

2D:

NEW 7:30 PM – 72/159(+72)

Total from 9 theaters(27 showings): 661(+507)/4201(+581)(15.7%)

Hope that helps! Good luck and have fun!

Edited September 26, 2019 by Inceptionzq

[Inceptionzq]

https://deadline.com/2019/09/maleficent-mistress-of-evil-zombieland-2-opening-weekend-projections-1202745437/

Quote

This morning, tracking showed that Disney’s sequel Maleficent: Mistress of Evil is set to open on Oct. 18 to $50M, while Sony’s Zombieland: Double Tap is on course to do $25M.

 

Meanwhile, tracking is still sees Warner Bros. Joker next Friday as October’s biggest opener of all-time with $84M, besting previous champ Venom ($80.2M).

In regards to Oct. 11 releases, updated projections show Paramount’s Will Smith movie from director Ang Lee, Gemini Man, strong with African American crowd with $29M-$30M. MGM’s animated feature release of The Addams Family is also looking great with $28M.

 

 

[Eric is Quiet]

All those numbers listed would be crazy good for their respective movies (although with how Gemini Man's reviews are, who knows if 30M will actually happen?)

[DAJK]

Maleficent is looking really good if that number holds. Was expecting initial tracking to top out at 40. But HOLY SHIT at Addams Family; a 30M opening for it could see it do 100+ if it holds well through October. 

[Manny G]

$50M for Maleficent is the Industry overestimating Disney yet again. They’re so full of wins that it’s too tempting not to do so. But just like like Dumbo or MPR the interest is just not there. 

Edited September 27, 2019 by Manny G

[Eric is Quiet]

20 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Maleficent is looking really good if that number holds. Was expecting initial tracking to top out at 40. But HOLY SHIT at Addams Family; a 30M opening for it could see it do 100+ if it holds well through October. 

In a weird way, that Addams Family number kind of makes sense the more I think about it. The 90s movies are now at the point where they're nostalgic to the kids who grew up with them, and they've arguably garnered a bigger audience through cable reruns every October. As a kid, when those movies started to play on ABC Family, it signaled the true start of the Halloween season for me.  

[ThomasNicole]

36 minutes ago, Manny G said:

$50M for Maleficent is the Industry overestimating Disney yet again. They’re so full of win that it’s too tempting not to do so. But just like like Dumbo or MPR then interest is just not there. 

Dumbo tracking was $ 50M and it did $ 46M even with The Bad reception not only from critics but also from The audiences, which cut the legs. But tracking itself was almost on Point.

 

If marketing for Maleficent keep stable until release and get well reception from audiences, i can see $ 50M OW.

[filmlover]

Those honestly seem about right for everything tbh. Maybe a little high for Maleficent but at least it looks like it won't be a total disaster like Alice Through the Looking Glass was.

[DAJK]

Those Gemini Man reviews are shocking to say the least. Still, based on early reactions, it seems like something the GA will eat up. Anyways, if those tracking #s remain somewhat accurate, we could be looking at a solid October.

 

Joker - $250M+

Maleficent - $130M

Addams Family - $100M

Gemini Man/Zombieland - $80M

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

https://deadline.com/2019/09/maleficent-mistress-of-evil-zombieland-2-opening-weekend-projections-1202745437/

 

Quote

This morning, tracking showed that Disney’s sequel Maleficent: Mistress of Evil is set to open on Oct. 18 to $50M, while Sony’s Zombieland: Double Tap is on course to do $25M.

 

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Those Gemini Man reviews are shocking to say the least. Still, based on early reactions, it seems like something the GA will eat up. Anyways, if those tracking #s remain somewhat accurate, we could be looking at a solid October.

 

Joker - $250M+

Maleficent - $130M

Addams Family - $100M

Gemini Man/Zombieland - $80M

Maleficent 2 is a family film with theme appropriate timing in regards to the calendar.  If, if, it opens to approx 50m, I have to think 150m is in fact back on the table (as my last post suggested).

[DAJK]

16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Maleficent 2 is a family film with theme appropriate timing in regards to the calendar.  If, if, it opens to approx 50m, I have to think 150m is in fact back on the table (as my last post suggested).

You're right, I guess I was thinking about Dumbo too much... and for some reason I thought Frozen was early November. 

 

That said, I think it'll open closer to 45-50 rather than 50-55

[Porthos]

NOTE FOR FOLKS READING THIS IN THE FUTURE.  I DERPED UP AND MADE THIS COMP AT T-21 NOT T-28, rendering ALL of the commentary moot and wrong and bad.  Disregard it entirely.

 

=============

 

Just took a spin around Sacramento for Maleficent 2, and you know what?  It's not that terrible for a film 28 days out.  I don't have many entries for family films that far out.  In fact, all I have is Pika Pika, which had been on sale for only two days at that point.

 

Right now Maleficent 2 is running at about 94.3% of Pika Pika (5.38m).

 

Now, lots of caveats as always.  Pika Pika started sales at T-29 and I'm using it's final number for the equivalent day, while Maleficent 2 has had tickets on sale for, what a little more than a week now?  So a little bit of a lead time for it. Also Pika Pika didn't do THAT terrible in its T-26 to T-14 time frame, and I don't have any idea if Maleficent 2 can match it on those days if early demand has already been burnt.

Still, 199 tickets sold region wide a month before release for a family film isn't a disaster by any means.  Not a sign of a breakout either, though.  But, yeah.  5m previews might indeed be on the table.  Might take another look in a week or so and see if the direct comp against Pika Pika is holding or not.

 

===

*thinks*

 

As ludicrous as the comp is, Maleficent 2 is doing 2.26x Hobbs and Shaw (13.11m) at the same point in time, and they had similar pre-sale length.  Perhaps slightly more on point is that Maleficent 2 is doing 40.9% of It 2, which also had a relatively long pre-sale window, and that comps to 4.3m.  

 

So comping somewhere between 4.3 and 5.3m at the moment?  Maybe?  10x that (which sounds right for a family film that has 7pm previews) and we get 43m to 53m?  Maybe 45m to 50m if we want to tighten the range?

 

Maybe tracking IS on point after all.

Edited September 30, 2019 by Porthos

[lorddemaxus]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/social-media-joker-knives-out-star-wars/

 

Joker Dominates Across Social Media As Release Date Approaches

[filmlover]

Gemini Man's reviews are really bad but I think there's enough interest in the concept that it could still pull a $25M opening.

[Barnack]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Gemini Man's reviews are really bad but I think there's enough interest in the concept that it could still pull a $25M opening.

Will see a lot of the interest could have been from an audience for who reviews matter quite a bit.

 

Ang Lee with bad reviews could be DOA.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Barnack said:

Will see a lot of the interest could have been from an audience for who reviews matter quite a bit.

 

Ang Lee with bad reviews could be DOA.

Maybe but I think it goes without saying there's no way for this (or any movie, really) to make as little as Billy Lynn (not even $2M total, yeesh) did.

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Maybe but I think it goes without saying there's no way for this (or any movie, really) to make as little as Billy Lynn (not even $2M total, yeesh) did.

Billy Lynn is in the all time great domestic for an over 40M, big names behind/front the camera over 1,000 theater release, surely Gemini should go over 15 time is 900k with ease.

 

But it is easy to imagine an below Ad Astra start if the reviews stay that low (17-18M).

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-terminator-dark-fate-plus-a-big-joker-update/

 

BO pro had 28M in mind assuming really good reviews.

 

That said tracking was right on track with your prediction, before the reviews:

New titles on tracking include Ang Lee's sci-fi epic Gemini Man, starring Will Smith. Early NRG estimates show the the sci-fi epic debuting domestically to $29 million, ahead of Lee's Life of Pi ($22.5 million). The pic opens Oct. 11. The range being given by the combined services is $28 million to $30 million

 

Maybe will see them sway the title.

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

45 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Just took a spin around Sacramento for Maleficent 2, and you know what?  It's not that terrible for a film 28 days out.  I don't have many entries for family films that far out.  In fact, all I have is Pika Pika, which had been on sale for only two days at that point.

 

Right now Maleficent 2 is running at about 94.3% of Pika Pika (5.38m).

 

Now, lots of caveats as always.  Pika Pika started sales at T-29 and I'm using it's final number for the equivalent day, while Maleficent 2 has had tickets on sale for, what a little more than a week now?  So a little bit of a lead time for it. Also Pika Pika didn't do THAT terrible in its T-26 to T-14 time frame, and I don't have any idea if Maleficent 2 can match it on those days if early demand has already been burnt.

Still, 199 tickets sold region wide a month before release for a family film isn't a disaster by any means.  Not a sign of a breakout either, though.  But, yeah.  5m previews might indeed be on the table.  Might take another look in a week or so and see if the direct comp against Pika Pika is holding or not.

 

===

*thinks*

 

As ludicrous as the comp is, Maleficent 2 is doing 2.26x Hobbs and Shaw (13.11m) at the same point in time, and they had similar pre-sale length.  Perhaps slightly more on point is that Maleficent 2 is doing 40.9% of It 2, which also had a relatively long pre-sale window, and that comps to 4.3m.  

 

So comping somewhere between 4.3 and 5.3m at the moment?  Maybe?  10x that (which sounds right for a family film that has 7pm previews) and we get 43m to 53m?  Maybe 45m to 50m if we want to tighten the range?

 

Maybe tracking IS on point after all.

If anything, 4.3-5.3 would mean that Deadline is lowballing the tracking a bit. Have to think multi is at least a 12x in october 

[FlashMaster659]

Abominable Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [12:00pm - 12:25pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	79	392	13900	13508	2.82%

 

Mid-Day Comps:

	%	Time		Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Hustlers	26.74	1:00-1:30		1466		0/58	8929/10395	14.10%		669k
Downton Abbey	58.59	12:20-12:50		669		0/44	6746/7415	9.02%		1.23m
Ad Astra	64.58	12:50-1:10		607		0/37	8167/8774	6.92%		969k
Rambo: Last Blood	59.94	1:10-1:40		654		0/51	12360/13014	5.03%		779k

 

===

 

No really good comps for this so take it as a grain of salt I guess.

Edited October 3, 2019 by FlashMaster659