The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

30 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

What can be the Saturday jump and Sunday drop in those cases?

Patience. Let us wait for OD to finish and see where PS is before looking at Sat/Sun.

[Eric is Anxious]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-tracking-dolittle-and-bad-boys-for-life-hope-to-anchor-a-strong-mlk-weekend-in-january/

 

I thought I was in the clear in tracking movies until Birds of Prey, but I guess I'm resigned to Dolittle at the moment. Le sigh

 

Also lol at the Jumanji drop

[keysersoze123]

F2 OD update

 

MTC1 - overall 5981 shows 253639/1105840 3396129.46 2798973.30 post 6PM 2708 shows 143542/510745 2066998.28 1656127.20 pre noon 977 shows 25665/167059 201026.47 200143.50 1027AM
MTC2 - overall 6541 shows 260115/1002597 2625808.00 post 6PM 2363 shows 121875/368539 1441482.00  pre noon 1418 shows 31708/214785 237612.00 1019AM

 

so MTC2 seem to have slightly better run rate than MTC1 and did better with shows before noon. Not sure where it will end up but compared to previews 1m tickets would mean 35m friday. So for 42m it needs to sell 1.2m tickets. That will need crazy acceleration. let us wait and watch.

Edited November 22, 2019 by keysersoze123

[Menor the Destroyer]

12 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

F2 OD update

 

MTC1 - overall 5981 shows 253639/1105840 3396129.46 2798973.30 post 6PM 2708 shows 143542/510745 2066998.28 1656127.20 pre noon 977 shows 25665/167059 201026.47 200143.50 1027AM
MTC2 - overall 6541 shows 260115/1002597 2625808.00 post 6PM 2363 shows 121875/368539 1441482.00  pre noon 1418 shows 31708/214785 237612.00 1019AM

 

so MTC2 seem to have slightly better run rate than MTC1 and did better with shows before noon. Not sure where it will end up but compared to previews 1m tickets would mean 35m friday. So for 42m it needs to sell 1.2m tickets. That will need crazy acceleration. let us wait and watch.

Given that morning sales ended up being around 18 million nationwide I'd say 1 million should be in the 40 million range.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

I guess Sacremento did over perform @Porthos

Not as much as Denver. 

 

(Sorry, @Inceptionzq )

 

===

 

Yeah, even the comps of TS4 and Aladdin (which also both over-performed locally) were misses, though not by that much (.5m).  Just gonna guess there were more post-6pm walkups for both of those films than for Frozen 2 locally.  The well known phenomenon of women buying tickets ahead of time strikes again.

 

But with the internal multi that may or may not be brewing (haven't checked today's posts much yet and wont for a couple of hours), won't matter in the end.

 

Will say I'm a teeny bit surprised that it did indeed slip under 9m after all.  But maybe TS4 and Aladdin just had more dudes/adults willing to show up after 8pm.  That could be the real difference there.

 

Either way, @Eric Plus did very well as well, from what I can recall. 

 

Now the real fun begins. 👍

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Not as much as Denver. 

 

(Sorry, @Inceptionzq )

 

===

 

Yeah, even the comps of TS4 and Aladdin (which also both over-performed locally) were misses, though not by that much (.5m).  Just gonna guess there were more post-6pm walkups for both of those films than for Frozen 2 locally.  The well known phenomenon of women buying tickets ahead of time strikes again.

 

But with the internal multi that may or may not be brewing (haven't checked today's posts much yet and wont for a couple of hours), won't matter in the end.

 

Will say I'm a teeny bit surprised that it did indeed slip under 9m after all.  But maybe TS4 and Aladdin just had more dudes/adults willing to show up after 8pm.  That could be the real difference there.

 

Either way, @Eric Plus did very well as well, from what I can recall. 

 

Now the real fun begins. 👍

Eric is MTC1 heavy. So phily underperformed just like NYC did. Did you CaptainWondyful's comparisons for LS13. That is something we knew for a while. Big cities with 17$ 2d tickets have bigger impact than smaller markets. But that said its BO today is very good in NYC.

 

Emp/LS13 is at 3593/10351 . Dolby 10AM sold 58/225, LS13 Imax at 10AM sold 62/480. 4PM LS13 is more than half sold and 7PM is almost 80% sold. Dolby is near sellout for prime shows already.

 

Edited November 22, 2019 by keysersoze123

[narniadis]

I really cannot comprehend the underperformance in the major cities for previews. Obviously MTC1 knew something we havent figured out since they kept the show count down but its still head scratching in comparison with other films. 

[Joyous Legion]

MTC1 is the one where Wang’s source said ~160, right? Seems like they were wise to the IM being high teens between that and low Thurs showtime count.      
 

 

[StarWarsMemer]

.

 

53 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

F2 OD update

 

MTC1 - overall 5981 shows 253639/1105840 3396129.46 2798973.30 post 6PM 2708 shows 143542/510745 2066998.28 1656127.20 pre noon 977 shows 25665/167059 201026.47 200143.50 1027AM
MTC2 - overall 6541 shows 260115/1002597 2625808.00 post 6PM 2363 shows 121875/368539 1441482.00  pre noon 1418 shows 31708/214785 237612.00 1019AM

 

so MTC2 seem to have slightly better run rate than MTC1 and did better with shows before noon. Not sure where it will end up but compared to previews 1m tickets would mean 35m friday. So for 42m it needs to sell 1.2m tickets. That will need crazy acceleration. let us wait and watch.

So nearly a 5× Friday to Thursday multiplier? Makes sense since most kids go to schools on Thursday. 

[FlashMaster659]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-28 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	256	13137	53600	40463	24.51%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 85

[Tinalera]

Frozen 2 should be interesting. Its aimed at kids so i wasnt sure thrus previews would say a lot. The weekend will be very interesting.

 

 

 

 

[ThomasNicole]

For who understand better than me, SW seems to be holding pretty well, right?

 

I though it will gonna be way worse at this dead point and almost 1 month left

[Inceptionzq]

On 11/21/2019 at 3:10 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1615

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1650

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
8132	55	22870	35.56%	9	182

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1621

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1656

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
8181	49	22870	35.77%	9	182

[SheevPalpatine]

1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

For who understand better than me, SW seems to be holding pretty well, right?

Seems pretty good without proper marketing.

[TalismanRing]

12 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Numbers as of midnight - 633 tickets sold yesterday.  Alamo added a 3rd show for F&S, AMC Empire added a 2nd for Saturday.

 

Friday:   1,763/2,429 = 72.58%    
Saturday: 1,358/2,429 = 55.9%    
Total:    3,121/4,858 = 64.24%

Now counting all the 22 theaters and 27 showings that show up in my NYC area search for previews. 

 

As of 6pm

 

Friday:   2,612/3,339 = 78.23%

Saturday: 1,703/3,339 = 51%

F+S =  4,226/6,678 = 63.28%

 

My local : 137/257 as of 6 pm

 

That's more than twice the number of tickets sold to FvF at 5:30pm on Thur (65) but FvF had 4 showings - two in the 10pm time slot which allowed for more walk ups later.  But KO also has Saturday.   Again, I don't have the # of theaters doing sneaks nationwide either so difficult to comp and extrapolate but this also looks bigger than DA's early sneaks.

 

 

 

[ZackM]

On 11/21/2019 at 11:59 PM, ZackM said:

Frozen 2 - Various theater chains (Michigan) - Friday Seat Report: Final Presales

 

11/21/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	415	66,073	77,196	11,123	14.41%

Frozen 2 - Various theater chains (Michigan) - Saturday Seat Report: Final Presales

 

11/22/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	441	62,407	78,658	16,251	20.66%

[Eric is Anxious]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-27 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	165	8,895	30,741	28.94%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 46

 

Comp

4.677x of Once Upon’s final count (27.12M)

2.568x of It: Chapter Two (26.96M)

1.812x of Joker (24.09M)

12.762x of Maleficent (29.35M)

10.212x of Terminator (24M)

2.646x of Frozen II (22.49M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.756x of Lion King (17.39M)

3.588x of Hobbs & Shaw (20.81M)

 

I dunno, your mileage may vary, but I feel like this is the first mediocre day for the movie in a long while, especially since this had a new Mando episode to help boost potential numbers. But it's still a good while away, and sometimes movies like these have their off day. We'll see if the following weeks are any better.

[Porthos]

7 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

For who understand better than me, SW seems to be holding pretty well, right?

 

I though it will gonna be way worse at this dead point and almost 1 month left

I'm really biased, but I think it's doing "pretty well", yeah.  My sample size of movies I've tracked at the seat level with 59/60 days of pre-sales is exactly two, though (Captain Marvel and The Rise of Skywalker).  Infinity War is now getting to be a decent day-to-day comp now that its ramp up is in the rear view mirror, but even there problems.  TROS's head start gives it a yuge lead while IW's fewer days of pre-sales might mean more sales on any given day.

 

Still, the proof in the pudding will be its final two weeks of pre-sales in general and its final four days of pre-sales in particular.  That's when pre-sales are really made or broken, as Frozen 2 just showed.

 

(Mind, Frozen 2 had strong pre-sales beyond opening night, but while it didn't fall off a cliff for opening night its momentum stalled greatly the closer it got to release night)

[ZackM]

The Rise of Skywalker - Various theater chains (Michigan) - Premiere Night Seat Report: T-27 days and counting

 

	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	1	0	0	0	2
Seats Added	77	3	0	0	211
Seats Sold	~123	~123	~123	~123	99
11/22/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	237	29,116	41,859	12,743	30.44%

 

I haven't been able to track anything for the last few days which is why a handful of those daily numbers are estimates, but the sum of those days (492) is accurate.  The trend continues to look good.

[Porthos]

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-27 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	205	11651	24152	12501	51.76%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

67

 

T-27 Adjusted Comp #1 (EXTREMELY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-27	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	385.36		38	3101		2/81	7515/10616	29.21%		79.77m
TROS (adj)	n/a		62	11950		2/205	10940/22890	52.21%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel.

 

T-27 Adjusted Comp #2 (VERY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-27	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
IW	163.77		70	6522		1/116	4603/11125	58.62%		63.87m
TROS (adj)	n/a		49	10681		2/205	8090/18771	56.90%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Infinity War.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Infinity War had 42 days of pre-sales.

 

---

Comps so far off of Final Totals of:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
IW	70.46		15159		10681		27.48m
DP2	131.33		8133		10681		24.43m
Solo	184.51		5789		10681		26.02m
JW:FK	171.50		6228		10681		26.24m
AM&tW	231.94		4605		10681		26.67m
Venom	247.61		4493		11125		24.76m
CM	113.24		10553		11950		23.44m
EG	44.82		26655		11950		26.90m
TLK	108.86		10977		11950		25.04m
It 2	220.90		5659		12501		23.19m
AVG							25.42m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.