The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, Menor said:

If overall PS is below TLJ then that's not a great sign considering it has Christmas in the very next week (so should have an advantage in PS), and also considering 2 years growth in presales.

Wouldn't Christmas being less than a week after actually deflate the opening weekend? A lot of people are gonna be traveling that weekend.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Wouldn't Christmas being less than a week after actually deflate the opening weekend? A lot of people are gonna be traveling that weekend.

It will deflate OW but not PS. Because weekday PS would/should be higher than TLJ. Kinda like what we saw with Frozen 2 last weekend.

[Knights of Ren]

TLJ early tracking:
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi” is heading for a massive launch in the $200 million range during its Dec. 15-17 opening weekend in North America, according to the first estimates released by tracking services on Wednesday.

-Variety



TFA early tracking:
Star Wars: The Force Awakens registered on distributors’ tracking reports today, four weeks before the film opens. On the low end, some are projecting $185 million, at the high end they’re looking at $210M, and Disney insiders think an opening close to $170M is possible.

-Deadline

[a2k]

1 minute ago, Knights of Ren said:

TLJ early tracking:
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi” is heading for a massive launch in the $200 million range during its Dec. 15-17 opening weekend in North America, according to the first estimates released by tracking services on Wednesday.

-Variety



TFA early tracking:
Star Wars: The Force Awakens registered on distributors’ tracking reports today, four weeks before the film opens. On the low end, some are projecting $185 million, at the high end they’re looking at $210M, and Disney insiders think an opening close to $170M is possible.

-Deadline

looks like it got more accurate over time

sw7 185-210 => 248

sw8 200 => 220

 

[Legion Again]

For some historical context, the deadline articles on TFA and TLJ hitting tracking:

https://deadline.com/2015/11/star-wars-the-force-awakens-box-office-opening-estimate-1201636913/ (180-210)

https://deadline.com/2017/11/star-wars-the-last-jedi-200-million-opening-1202213679/ (~200)  

 

But also, here are the top 15 OWs when TFA tracking hit:

Spoiler

1	Jurassic World	Uni.	$208,806,270	32.0%	4,274	$48,855	$651,771,446	6/12/2015
2	Marvel's The Avengers	BV	$207,438,708	33.3%	4,349	$47,698	$623,357,910	5/4/2012
3	Avengers: Age of Ultron	BV	$191,271,109	41.7%	4,276	$44,731	$459,005,868	5/1/2015
4	Iron Man 3	BV	$174,144,585	42.6%	4,253	$40,946	$409,013,994	5/3/2013
5	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2	WB	$169,189,427	44.4%	4,375	$38,672	$381,011,219	7/15/2011
6	The Dark Knight Rises	WB	$160,887,295	35.9%	4,404	$36,532	$448,139,099	7/20/2012
7	The Dark Knight	WB	$158,411,483	29.7%	4,366	$36,283	$533,345,358	7/18/2008
8	The Hunger Games: Catching Fire	LGF	$158,074,286	37.2%	4,163	$37,971	$424,668,047	11/22/2013
9	The Hunger Games	LGF	$152,535,747	37.4%	4,137	$36,871	$408,010,692	3/23/2012
10	Spider-Man 3	Sony	$151,116,516	44.9%	4,252	$35,540	$336,530,303	5/4/2007
11	Furious 7	Uni.	$147,187,040	41.7%	4,004	$36,760	$352,786,830	4/3/2015
12	The Twilight Saga: New Moon	Sum.	$142,839,137	48.2%	4,024	$35,497	$296,623,634	11/20/2009
13	The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2	LG/S	$141,067,634	48.3%	4,070	$34,660	$292,324,737	11/16/2012
14	The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1	Sum.	$138,122,261	49.1%	4,061	$34,012	$281,287,133	11/18/2011
15	Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

So TFA was projected at 4th to 1st.

 

And the top 15 when TLJ hit:

Spoiler

1	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	BV	$247,966,675	26.5%	4,134	$59,982	$936,662,225	12/18/2015
2	Jurassic World	Uni.	$208,806,270	32.0%	4,274	$48,855	$652,270,625	6/12/2015
3	Marvel's The Avengers	BV	$207,438,708	33.3%	4,349	$47,698	$623,357,910	5/4/2012
4	Avengers: Age of Ultron	BV	$191,271,109	41.7%	4,276	$44,731	$459,005,868	5/1/2015
5	Captain America: Civil War	BV	$179,139,142	43.9%	4,226	$42,390	$408,084,349	5/6/2016
6	Beauty and the Beast (2017)	BV	$174,750,616	34.7%	4,210	$41,508	$504,014,165	3/17/2017
7	Iron Man 3	BV	$174,144,585	42.6%	4,253	$40,946	$409,013,994	5/3/2013
8	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2	WB	$169,189,427	44.4%	4,375	$38,672	$381,011,219	7/15/2011
9	Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice	WB	$166,007,347	50.3%	4,242	$39,134	$330,360,194	3/25/2016
10	The Dark Knight Rises	WB	$160,887,295	35.9%	4,404	$36,532	$448,139,099	7/20/2012
11	The Dark Knight	WB	$158,411,483	29.7%	4,366	$36,283	$533,345,358	7/18/2008
12	The Hunger Games: Catching Fire	LGF	$158,074,286	37.2%	4,163	$37,971	$424,668,047	11/22/2013
13	Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	BV	$155,081,681	29.1%	4,157	$37,306	$532,177,324	12/16/2016
14	The Hunger Games	LGF	$152,535,747	37.4%	4,137	$36,871	$408,010,692	3/23/2012
15	Spider-Man 3	Sony	$151,116,516	44.9%	4,252	$35,540	$336,530,303	5/4/2007

So a TLJ was projected at 4th still.  
 

And the top 15 now: 

Spoiler

1	Avengers: Endgame	$357,115,007	$858,373,000	-	4,662	$76,601	Apr 26, 2019	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
2	Avengers: Infinity War	$257,698,183	$678,815,482	-	4,474	$57,599	Apr 27, 2018	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
3	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	$247,966,675	$936,660,090	-	4,134	$59,982	Dec 18, 2015	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
4	Star Wars: Episode VIII - The Last Jedi	$220,009,584	$620,181,382	-	4,232	$51,987	Dec 15, 2017	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
5	Jurassic World	$208,806,270	$652,270,625	-	4,274	$48,855	Jun 12, 2015	Universal Pictures
6	The Avengers	$207,438,708	$623,357,910	-	4,349	$47,698	May 4, 2012	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
7	Black Panther	$202,003,951	$700,059,566	-	4,020	$50,249	Feb 16, 2018	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
8	The Lion King	$191,770,759	$543,605,499	-	4,725	$40,586	Jul 19, 2019	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
9	Avengers: Age of Ultron	$191,271,109	$459,005,868	-	4,276	$44,731	May 1, 2015	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
10	The Incredibles 2	$182,687,905	$608,581,744	-	4,410	$41,425	Jun 15, 2018	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
11	Captain America: Civil War	$179,139,142	$408,084,349	-	4,226	$42,389	May 6, 2016	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
12	Beauty and the Beast	$174,750,616	$504,014,165	-	4,210	$41,508	Mar 17, 2017	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
13	Iron Man 3	$174,144,585	$406,609,688	-	4,253	$40,946	May 3, 2013	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
14	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2	$169,189,427	$381,011,219	-	4,375	$38,671	Jul 15, 2011	Warner Bros.
15	Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice	$166,007,347

So TROS is being projected at about 12th to 8th.  
 

Now, why does that matter? The tracking models didn’t really have a handle on TFA because it was out of historical range. When they’re uncertain due to small sample sizes, they round down out of caution. These TROS numbers aren’t really at the unknown regions of the OW range anymore so tracking should have  a better handle on them and not need to round down for the same reason.

Edited November 27, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[Legion Again]

To clarify, I think they’re likely still rounding down a bit. But out of general caution, rather than general caution plus extrapolating rather than interpolating.

[jedijake]

19 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Agreed, 190-200M seems About right

 

It doesn’t need to match TLJ to surpass it’s total anyway

 

I can easily see a scenario when this movie debut with 195M And people will freakout only to finish with 650M

If it debuts with less than $200 million, it isn't making $650 million domestic. I'd say it would struggle to reach $600 million. I'd put it at around $550-$575 million with less than a $200 million OW. Increasing legs from TLJ is going to be REALLY difficult.

[ThomasNicole]

4 minutes ago, jedijake said:

If it debuts with less than $200 million, it isn't making $650 million domestic. I'd say it would struggle to reach $600 million. I'd put it at around $550-$575 million with less than a $200 million OW. Increasing legs from TLJ is going to be REALLY difficult.

I disagree with that, i think TROS will have way more repeat viewers Because It’s the Last And should be more easy to like than TLJ, date seems better too (And i doubt Jumanji will make $ 400M again)

 

TLJ legs is very bad, for me it’s hard to believe this will happen Again especially with a lower OW

[MagnarTheGreat]

The finale effect can chop off the legs and reduce stamina like it did for Endgame and Harry Potter and It Chapter 2 among others. The question is if TLJ's multiplier of 2.82 underperformed what it could have been (3.2 or whatever) than a finale effect multiplier (extra frontloading) can be about the same 2.82 instead of much lower than its predecessor I suppose in theory anyway.

 

Deadline: "‘Solo: A Star Wars Story’ Soars On Tracking To Potential $170M+ Four-Day Weekend" (May 3, 2018)

Deadline: "‘Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker’ Seeing $205M+ Opening: Here’s Why" (November 27, 2019)
Deadline: "As of 8AM, one tracking firm says $175M, but that seems low." (November 27, 2019)

 

As shown before, Thursday Previews don't multiply out as high for Star Wars as they do other franchises so they're extra frontloaded already going from Thursday to Sunday.

 

 

 

BoxOffice® — Long Range Forecast: 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens'
Long Range Forecast: ‘Rogue One: A Star Wars Story,’ ‘Collateral Beauty’ & ‘The Space Between Us’
Long Range Forecast: 'Star Wars: The Last Jedi' & 'Ferdinand' - Boxoffice
Long Range Tracking: 'Solo: A Star Wars Story' - Boxoffice
Long Range Tracking: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Bombshell, and Cats - Boxoffice

Edited November 27, 2019 by MagnarTheGreat

[jedijake]

37 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I disagree with that, i think TROS will have way more repeat viewers Because It’s the Last And should be more easy to like than TLJ, date seems better too (And i doubt Jumanji will make $ 400M again)

 

TLJ legs is very bad, for me it’s hard to believe this will happen Again especially with a lower OW

But don't finales usually have the weakest legs due to most people coming out to see it early?

 

Then again, many people come out to see it early due to being hyped from the previous film. I think this series is rare in that the previous film really fell from the first one in terms of legs. No matter how you slice it, TLJ WILL have an effect on TROS's performance.

[cdsacken]

24 minutes ago, MagnarTheGreat said:

The finale effect can chop off the legs and reduce stamina like it did for Endgame and Harry Potter and It Chapter 2 among others. The question is if TLJ's multiplier of 2.82 underperformed what it could have been (3.2 or whatever) than a finale effect multiplier (extra frontloading) can be about the same 2.82 instead of much lower than its predecessor I suppose in theory anyway.

 

Deadline: "‘Solo: A Star Wars Story’ Soars On Tracking To Potential $170M+ Four-Day Weekend" (May 3, 2018)

Deadline: "‘Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker’ Seeing $205M+ Opening: Here’s Why" (November 27, 2019)
Deadline: "As of 8AM, one tracking firm says $175M, but that seems low." (November 27, 2019)

 

As shown before, Thursday Previews don't multiply out as high for Star Wars as they do other franchises so they're extra frontloaded already going from Thursday to Sunday.

 

 

 

BoxOffice® — Long Range Forecast: 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens'
Long Range Forecast: ‘Rogue One: A Star Wars Story,’ ‘Collateral Beauty’ & ‘The Space Between Us’
Long Range Forecast: 'Star Wars: The Last Jedi' & 'Ferdinand' - Boxoffice
Long Range Tracking: 'Solo: A Star Wars Story' - Boxoffice
Long Range Tracking: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Bombshell, and Cats - Boxoffice

Analysis is flawed. End Game OW increased 38.5% in 1 year. Final total crushed Infinity War in every way.

 

HP part 2 opened up 35% as well and also spanked HP1.

[MagnarTheGreat]

The finales increased the frontloading which boosted the opening weekend totals and reduced the legs so I don't see anything 'flawed'. Even if TROS opens lower than its predecessors that's a still a boosted opening from what it otherwise would have been had it not been a finale and instead a routine sequel.

[ThomasNicole]

28 minutes ago, jedijake said:

But don't finales usually have the weakest legs due to most people coming out to see it early?

 

Then again, many people come out to see it early due to being hyped from the previous film. I think this series is rare in that the previous film really fell from the first one in terms of legs. No matter how you slice it, TLJ WILL have an effect on TROS's performance.

I agreed it Will, i’m predicting $ 190M - 200M OW, which is around 10-14% drop compared to TLJ, with a different reception from TLJ it’ll probably Up a little bit.

 

But legs is another story, TLJ was very bad with legs and way lower than it could be. With this release date, a lower OW because of the preview movie, the fact of being the finale of an 40-year old franchise which could bring a lot of repeat viewers, and less competition, i strongly believe 3.1x is the worse it can get.

[RockyMountain]

27 minutes ago, jedijake said:

But don't finales usually have the weakest legs due to most people coming out to see it early?

 

Then again, many people come out to see it early due to being hyped from the previous film. I think this series is rare in that the previous film really fell from the first one in terms of legs. No matter how you slice it, TLJ WILL have an effect on TROS's performance.

I think you are allowing what you see people say on the internet to have too big of an impact on you. No I'm not saying that people weren't disappointed or upset with TLJ but most of the nonsense you read about in regards to reactions to the movie is highly exaggerated and made more in line to get others to react to them than it is an indication on how mad they really are.

 

If there is one thing you can count on in fandom these days (and this is especially true in regards to Star Wars where some have spent their entire lives obsessing over it) is that people's tunes can change in a blink of an eye. Sure you will get people to react poorly to something they don't like but all it generally takes to make them start thinking positively about the product again is to see one thing that they do like. If Rise of Skywalker comes out and it is a highly praised movie by fans all this divisiveness that we have seen over the last two years will be a distant memory.

 

In regards to the tracking it is pretty much on par with what you would expect. They aren't going to advertise that it is going to open to 220m to 230m dollars because then if it doesn't people will start saying the movie underperformed. So having early tracking numbers be in the high 100 range to up and around 200 makes perfect sense because we know at the very least it will probably open to around that much. And as they said it is a similar range to what TFA and TLJ's early tracking was like and a lot of times (like was the case with those two movies) the final results end up being higher than what the early tracking estimates were.

[Ryan Reynolds]

did we get Cats tracking?

[MagnarTheGreat]

Variety - ‘Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker’ Could Score Massive $200 Million Opening Weekend

 

Quote

Given demand for the Skywalker saga’s epic conclusion, Disney and Lucasfilm’s sci-fi space opera is on pace for a start between $175 million and $200 million, according to early tracking. While that figure won’t come close to dethroning “Avengers: Endgame” and its historic $357 million launch, it would still rank among the best domestic debuts of all time.

 

[cdsacken]

56 minutes ago, MagnarTheGreat said:

The finales increased the frontloading which boosted the opening weekend totals and reduced the legs so I don't see anything 'flawed'. Even if TROS opens lower than its predecessors that's a still a boosted opening from what it otherwise would have been had it not been a finale and instead a routine sequel.

Not really accurate. Release date naturally depresses the opening weekend. Those legs were lower (HP 2 barely) because of mathematics. They both opened so high demand was burned off faster and it simply wasn't possible for legs to be better.

 

Just like If Aquaman 2 opens to 120m it won't even sniff the same legs at the of first.

[RockyMountain]

With going to see a movie OW becoming more a thing these days than in years past the term 'legs' doesn't really mean much anymore. 

 

Endgame opened to 350m but its final domestic total was almost a 100m lower than a movie that opened to almost a 100m less than it did. Endgame must have been a horrible movie with legs like that.

Edited November 27, 2019 by RockyMountain

[john2000]

5 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

With going to see a movie OW becoming more a thing these days than in years past the term 'legs' doesn't really mean much anymore. 

 

Endgame opened to 350m but its final domestic total was almost a 100m lower than a movie that opened to almost a 100m less than it did. Endgame must have been a horrible movie with legs like that.

i hope that this is a an ironic/joke comment

 

i am syre 2,4 multi from a 357 ow is poor. compare to the other 350+ openers ,oh wait.................

Edited November 27, 2019 by john2000

[RockyMountain]

3 minutes ago, john2000 said:

i hope that this is a an ironic/joke comment

 

i am syre 2,4 multi from a 357 ow is poor. compare to the other 350+ openers ,oh wait.................

With an opening like that you would think it would have been able to beat TFA domestically if it had solid legs. Legs don't mean as much as they used to since more people are going OW these days.