The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I count MTC 1 occupancy around 85-88%. Considering how Friday add ton of shows, this must explode during weekend ideally with increased capacity. Now this is where HBO Max release may be affecting. I won't be surprised with $13M Saturday. Not expecting, but won't be surprised. If I had put a very optimistic number, I will go 10 8 13 13 9 = 53

 

Realistically thinking 11 each on Fri and Sat.

 

I am expecting much bigger drop for tomorrow. I am seeing 20-25% fewer shows. Even if few plexes add some shows it will be lot lower. Plus PS  was 2/3rd lower this afternoon compared to yesterday morning OD PS. I am thinking 40%+ drop for tomorrow. 

[Shawn Robbins]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

So we have data from around 8.6k plus shows from @keysersoze123, roughly 34-37% of all .

 

@Shawn that number include or exclude Private watch parties?

Excludes.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am expecting much bigger drop for tomorrow. I am seeing 20-25% fewer shows. Even if few plexes add some shows it will be lot lower. Plus PS  was 2/3rd lower this afternoon compared to yesterday morning OD PS. I am thinking 40%+ drop for tomorrow. 

On normal day I would totally expect 30% drop or higher but Thursday before Good Friday seems to perform better than normal day. Since today was close to capacity, there should be spillover tomorrow. But yeah can totally see 30% drop happen still, especially if show count as you said is 20-25% fewer.

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

So we have data from around 8.6k plus shows from @keysersoze123, roughly 34-37% of all . When final update come, will use some metric to make sense of it.

 

@Shawn that number include or exclude Private watch parties?

Also dont forget not all shows are equal. Big markets have greater value as ticket price is sometimes 3x higher than smaller markets. I think MTC's I look at should cover bigger part of overall BO. There are chains like Alamo Drafthouse which are mainly Texas based(few theatres in other locations, SF one is closed), Marcus Cinemas(mostly in states with low ticket prices) and many other small chains. 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Also dont forget not all shows are equal. Big markets have greater value as ticket price is sometimes 3x higher than smaller markets. I think MTC's I look at should cover bigger part of overall BO. There are chains like Alamo Drafthouse which are mainly Texas based(few theatres in other locations, SF one is closed), Marcus Cinemas(mostly in states with low ticket prices) and many other small chains. 

Yeah ofcourse. In fact MTC 1 per show average is much higher than MTC 2 in last update. I would expect these 34-37% shows to make over 50-55% of total number. 

 

[keysersoze123]

GVK OD Final Number

MTC1 - 190839/590028 2278435.00 3756 shows

MTC2 - 204241/671478 2130360.57 5109 shows

 

Just from the tracked shows we have 4.41 million. I think another 500K from non reserved shows from both the MTC. That would add another 1100-1200 shows. But just extrapolating from tracked shows I am thinking 8.5-9m OD(This is still a guess). This is not including PWP. I saw around 2850 PWP between 2 MTC but my data for MTC1 wont be complete as last update was yesterday afternoon and they removed the PWP shows from same day shows. So there could have been another 50 shows if there were late bookings. Roughly around 600K between 2 MTC. But not all of them may be for GVK. Deadline reported 10K overall booked but that is for entire week. So take it with a grain of salt. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Thanks @keysersoze123

 

Using a few approaches, I am coming around $9-9.5M excluding PWPs. PWPs may be another million dollar. So pretty confident on $10-10.5M. 

 

 

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

I wonder if WB will report OD. Even though WW84 certainly had a better OD than most expected, they still only reported the 3-day. 

[lorddemaxus]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

I wonder if WB will report OD. Even though WW84 certainly had a better OD than most expected, they still only reported the 3-day. 

They reported Tom and Jerry's though.

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

They reported Tom and Jerry's though.

Where? I only ever remember seeing the weekend number. 

[lorddemaxus]

11 minutes ago, Menor said:

Where? I only ever remember seeing the weekend number. 

www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2021/02/27/movies-box-office-tom-and-jerry-4m-friday-chloe-grace-moretz-tim-story-warner-bros/ (I know this is Mendelsohn but Deadline also said the same thing in their weekend breakdown)

 

Deadline iirc also said 6.1 mil Saturday.

Edited April 1, 2021 by lorddemaxus

[titanic2187]

13 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2021/02/27/movies-box-office-tom-and-jerry-4m-friday-chloe-grace-moretz-tim-story-warner-bros/ (I know this is Mendelsohn but Deadline also said the same thing in their weekend breakdown)

 

Deadline iirc also said 6.1 mil Saturday.

WB would be foolish not to capitalize on 10m OD pandemic record for their marketing campaign. 10m OD in pandemic era is amazing and actually not that far off from RPO's Thursday Easter eve OD 12m   

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

WB would be foolish not to capitalize on 10m OD pandemic record for their marketing campaign. 10m OD in pandemic era is amazing and actually not that far off from RPO's Thursday Easter eve OD 12m   

It's better. RPO had 3.75 million in previews. And despite that Friday ended up being 15 million and it got a 53 million 4-day...I think that unless MAX really messes with things, GvK will have a lot better weekend multi than people are thinking. 

Edited April 1, 2021 by Menor

[titanic2187]

4 minutes ago, Menor said:

It's better. RPO had 3.75 million in previews. And despite that Friday ended up being 15 million and it got a 53 million 4-day...I think that unless MAX really messes with things, GvK will have a lot better weekend multi than people are thinking. 

I hope HBO max only attracted those indoor-nerd who don't go to cinema for GvK either way even under normal circumstances. While RPO's 41m Easter weekend is too high to for Gvk achieve, I do hope GvK 5 days can match RPO's 4 days weekend.

   

GvK is basically a faith-based drama of 2021 Easter weekend. Faith in big screen. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

17 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I hope HBO max only attracted those indoor-nerd who don't go to cinema for GvK either way even under normal circumstances. While RPO's 41m Easter weekend is too high to for Gvk achieve, I do hope GvK 5 days can match RPO's 4 days weekend.

   

GvK is basically a faith-based drama of 2021 Easter weekend. Faith in big screen. 

Idk. It starts with a Wednesday opening day better than RPO's true OD (if RPO didn't have previews perhaps both would be equal). Let us see what yesterday's numbers are and what the drop is today. If it can stay above 7 million, I think RPO's 3-day would be achievable. 

 

RPO did 8.25 true Thurs, 15 fri, 15.6 Sat, 11 Sun. If GvK can do 7 or higher, being that this is Day 2 rather than true OD, the Friday bump could be bigger. So I wouldn't be surprised if it could do similar Fri-Sun numbers to RPO off of a 7 million Thursday. Of course this is not considering whether HBO Max will mess with the pattern. If that happens it will go below. 

Edited April 1, 2021 by Menor

[charlie Jatinder]

I can totally see RPO numbers. In fact me and @WandaLegion were discussing that few days back on same. The major factor will be HBO Max release.

 

If Thursday drop less than 20%, that will be nice indication. Saying 20 because its Good Friday eve which boost numbers. On normal Thursday would have taken normal 30-35% drop.

Edited April 1, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I can totally see RPO numbers. In fact me and @WandaLegion were discussing that few days back on same. The major factor will be HBO Max release.

 

If Thursday drop less than 20%, that will be nice indication. Saying 20 because its Good Friday eve which boost numbers. On normal Thursday would have taken normal 30-35% drop.

That seems quite ambitious even with strong night shows. Since GvK had no previews, I expect the Thursday drop to be a bit harsher. 

[titanic2187]

12 minutes ago, Menor said:

Idk. It starts with a Wednesday opening day better than RPO's true OD (if RPO didn't have previews perhaps both would be equal). Let us see what yesterday's numbers are and what the drop is today. If it can stay above 7 million, I think RPO's 3-day would be achievable. 

 

RPO did 8.25 true Thurs, 15 fri, 15.6 Sat, 11 Sun. If GvK can do 7 or higher, being that this is Day 2 rather than true OD, the Friday bump could be bigger. So I wouldn't be surprised if it could do similar Fri-Sun numbers to RPO off of a 7 million Thursday. Of course this is not considering whether HBO Max will mess with the pattern. If that happens it will go below. 

I know i am being irrationally "IN" your club of GvK 60m opening but 15m in a single day is really testing the upper limit of the capacity when even Top 10  aggregate weekend are struggling with 15m total.   

[Tinalera]

Just following up with a depressing bit of news,  more a confirmation really. Ontario is going into full Lockdown (Lockdown 3: Chain it all down), for 4 weeks. Theatres will be shut until at least early May....at the least.

 

I look forward to everyone else who can post numbers, as I gaze wistfully and wait until Ontario can get its act together.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2021/02/27/movies-box-office-tom-and-jerry-4m-friday-chloe-grace-moretz-tim-story-warner-bros/ (I know this is Mendelsohn but Deadline also said the same thing in their weekend breakdown)

 

Deadline iirc also said 6.1 mil Saturday.

I think Mendelson sourced from Deadline.

 

Edit: Yep. Neither Gitesh nor BOR had anything on T&J Friday. If WB had given, either of two would have tweeted.

Edited April 1, 2021 by charlie Jatinder