The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[charlie Jatinder]

38 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Yeh I don’t think a $10m preview number for a Marvel film would point to $80m+ either, look at Black Widow’s multiplier.

not too long ago BP did 202 off 24.25M i.e. 8.32x. (I think the official previews was 25 ish but actuals are 24.25M).

 

BW is summer movie with limited SAT bump. It cant be compared with non-summer movie.

Edited August 20, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[TalismanRing]

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

not too long ago BP did 202 off 24.25M i.e. 8.32x. (I think the official previews was 25 ish but actuals are 24.25M).

 

Captain Marvel did 7.5x off $20.7m in previews without a Monday holiday.

 

Thor Ragnarok: $14.5m/$22.74m = 8.46x

GOTG2:  $17m/ $146.5m = 8.61x

Dr Strange:  $9.4/$85m = 9x

 

So an 8x with Labor Day Monday is very much in the realm of possibility especially with a comparatively low $10m previews.

[Cooper Legion]

Getting to 80M 3day from 10 is the easy part. Getting to 10 in the first place… not easy. Despite certain hopes, I will be perfectly content with just 7.2

[Krissykins]

38 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

not too long ago BP did 202 off 24.25M i.e. 8.32x. (I think the official previews was 25 ish but actuals are 24.25M).

 

BW is summer movie with limited SAT bump. It cant be compared with non-summer movie.

Shang Chi is a summer movie. 
 

Like I already said in the rest of the post you quoted: Shang Chi has more going for it ie no Disney+ and no piracy. 

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Shang Chi is a summer movie. 
 

Like I already said in the rest of the post you quoted: Shang Chi has more going for it ie no Disney+ and no piracy. 

Every passing week more schools are opening. Openers dont grow over 10% on SAT in July now they are going +25-30%. Shang Chi will be probably +20-25% and then Sunday holiday will mean much smaller drop than usual, may be even flat if WoM is great.

[Cooper Legion]

Getting a little on a tangent here for this thread…

 

… the right place to take this to would be my new 100M club, which has very detailed breakdown of what to expect from various days based on calendar and history, summer vs fall considerations, how that feeds into true IM/full IM, etc  

Edited August 20, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/19/2021 at 8:21 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-1	Paw Patrol (Friday)	Jacksonville	3	22	2,108	135	29	6.40%
		Phoenix	7	38	4,727	240	70	5.08%
		Raleigh	3	18	1,581	401	89	25.36%
	Paw Patrol (Friday) Total		13	78	8,416	776	188	9.22%
	Reminiscence (Friday)	Jacksonville	5	37	7,083	19	7	0.27%
		Phoenix	7	24	3,171	18	4	0.57%
		Raleigh	8	50	5,798	36	16	0.62%
	Reminiscence (Friday) Total		20	111	16,052	73	27	0.45%
T-14	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	5	36	5,621	161	8	2.86%
		Phoenix	6	26	4,663	214	12	4.59%
		Raleigh	7	26	3,314	261	36	7.88%
	Shang-Chi Total		18	88	13,598	636	56	4.68%

 

Paw Patrol T-1 comps

Space Jam - .355x (4.65m)

Boss Baby 2 - 4.434x (5.81m)

 

Still thinking around 5m opening day

 

Shang-Chi T-14 comps

BW - .335x (4.43m)

F9 - 1.116x (7.92m)

TSS - 2.575x (10.56m)

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-0	Paw Patrol (Friday)	Jacksonville	3	32	2,913	289	154	9.92%
		Phoenix	7	45	5,116	431	191	8.42%
		Raleigh	3	23	2,070	675	274	32.61%
	Paw Patrol (Friday) Total		13	100	10,099	1,395	619	13.81%
	Reminiscence (Friday)	Jacksonville	5	38	7,148	31	12	0.43%
		Phoenix	7	24	3,171	42	24	1.32%
		Raleigh	8	50	5,798	59	23	1.02%
	Reminiscence (Friday) Total		20	112	16,117	132	59	0.82%
T-13	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	5	36	5,621	200	39	3.56%
		Phoenix	6	27	4,769	240	26	5.03%
		Raleigh	7	26	3,314	271	10	8.18%
	Shang-Chi Total		18	89	13,704	711	75	5.19%
T-6	Candyman	Jacksonville	6	13	2,369	29	29	1.22%
		Phoenix	6	16	3,180	37	37	1.16%
		Raleigh	7	12	1,480	29	29	1.96%
	Candyman Total		19	41	7,029	95	95	1.35%

 

Paw Patrol fell back against Space Jam, which jumped from 2185 to 4433 tickets sold between Thursday morning and Friday morning.  SJ comp drops to 4.15m, whereas Boss Baby 2 had sold 259 tickets by preview morning, comping out to 7.1m OD for PP.  Regal accounted for about 25% of SJ sales in these markets, plus some schools having started will bring down the Friday a bit.  Hopefully Saturday will look much better than SJ compared to their Fridays. 

 

Reminiscence ends a little ahead of where Protégé ended last night (117).

 

Candyman is tied with Snake Eyes at T-6 (95).

[Krissykins]

Hopefully Candyman can continue to improve. I’d prefer an opening over $15m. 

[WrathOfHan]

Looking at Disney Springs which will usually hit 50-70%_ sold out for opening night Dolby once tickets drop, Candyman's Dolby shows have sold 35 seats across both showtimes (standard has sold 0, dine-in has sold 4). Definitely running a bit behind Old rn. 

[Inceptionzq]

Paw Patrol Megaplex Friday

 

1059 tickets sold across 10 theaters

 

Only comp I have is Black Widow, which would come out to 3M. But walkups will be stronger, so I guess that bodes well. Just wonder how much it'll hurt not having Regal.

[charlie Jatinder]

16 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Paw Patrol Megaplex Friday

 

1059 tickets sold across 10 theaters

 

Only comp I have is Black Widow, which would come out to 3M. But walkups will be stronger, so I guess that bodes well. Just wonder how much it'll hurt not having Regal.

I suppose that means $9.5k GROSS. Megaplex for Frozen 2 was 0.65% for 15 theaters, this only released in 10, not sure how ratios are gonna behave. Assuming ratio remains unchanged, will need $32K for $5M equivalent gross aka 3.4x PSm. PSm is do-able, but let's see.

I will be doing final pre-sales in just few minutes in Harkins, I won't be able to do realtime Friday tracking, though seems like I may have a cheat in hand. Links remained active in Opera for FG last week long after they usually expire. If that remains the case, I may be able to track the chain.

 

Earlier today, I did some calculations, unless MTC1 cross 110K, $5M may be tough. Hopefully @keysersoze123 will be there tonight.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Shang-Chi MTC2

 

Thursday

Showtimes: 1945 (+5)

Seats Sold: 14385/320782 (+1987)

 

Friday

Showtimes: 4008 (+9)

Seats Sold: 10068/673462 (+1240)

 

Saturday

Showtimes: 4203

Seats Sold: 7318/706892

 

As I said earlier I am taking a break for a while, will update numbers on Sunday 8/28. 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

11 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Paw Patrol Harkins California Final Pre-sales

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	33	7,021	698	9.94%	$6,746	$9.66
Total	33	7,021	698	9.94%	$6,746	$9.66

 

Incredible numbers. Almost doubled from yesterday. It will be tough for me to track but I think CA can do 2.25-2.5K ($21-24K) which will be round about what TSS did for its previews, though with 500-800 less seats sold.

 

The Harkins' 8 Theaters

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	59	10,995	1,268	11.53%	$11,685	$9.22
Total	11	10,995	1,268	11.53%	$11,685	$9.22

 

Nothing more to add, same as yesterday. 

Paw Patrol Harkins California Friday 10AM

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	33	7,021	838	11.94%	$8,070	$9.63
Total	33	7,021	838	11.94%	$8,070	$9.63

 

Sold 140 seats since last night. Let's see if it can pull 3x from here, though there is no certainty if we will be able to know that.

 

The Harkins'8 Theaters Friday 10AM

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	59	10,995	1,573	14.31%	$14,405	$9.16
Total	11	10,995	1,573	14.31%	$14,405	$9.16

 

Added 305 seats since last night, and Estrella Fall is on fire. The last 2 shows are 65% full with only bottom and handicapped seats remaining. In 5 shows, they have sold 356/656. Should have added more shows I suppose.

 

Will do any analysis, if I am in position to do so when I wake up. If the cheat code on Opera don't work, well then this will be a comp for if we ever have non-Previews Friday opening.

[keysersoze123]

32 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I suppose that means $9.5k GROSS. Megaplex for Frozen 2 was 0.65% for 15 theaters, this only released in 10, not sure how ratios are gonna behave. Assuming ratio remains unchanged, will need $32K for $5M equivalent gross aka 3.4x PSm. PSm is do-able, but let's see.

I will be doing final pre-sales in just few minutes in Harkins, I won't be able to do realtime Friday tracking, though seems like I may have a cheat in hand. Links remained active in Opera for FG last week long after they usually expire. If that remains the case, I may be able to track the chain.

 

Earlier today, I did some calculations, unless MTC1 cross 110K, $5M may be tough. Hopefully @keysersoze123 will be there tonight.

 

I dont think I can provide update tonight. But will try some update later today. It was at 38K this morning and 110K from here on is very difficult. 

1 hour ago, Menor said:

Shang-Chi MTC2

 

Thursday

Showtimes: 1945 (+5)

Seats Sold: 14385/320782 (+1987)

 

Friday

Showtimes: 4008 (+9)

Seats Sold: 10068/673462 (+1240)

 

Saturday

Showtimes: 4203

Seats Sold: 7318/706892

 

As I said earlier I am taking a break for a while, will update numbers on Sunday 8/28. 

 

 

How are now calculating DBOX. Now its all single show with both tickets. Good news is its easier to calculate ticket numbers but $ value is incredibly tough. I will anyway leave MTC2 to you :-)

[Menor the Destroyer]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

How are now calculating DBOX. Now its all single show with both tickets. Good news is its easier to calculate ticket numbers but $ value is incredibly tough. I will anyway leave MTC2 to you 🙂

I have been using just ticket numbers for a while now. I think using proper genre comps will eliminate most of the ATP difference.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Shang-Chi Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

168

1752

9.59%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

108

1016

10.63%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
647	93	13962	4.63%	14	75

 

Black Widow day 4 comp: 8.57M

Suicide Squad comp: 10.12M

Fast 9 comp: 10.12M

 

Solid day. Will probably start doing the T-X comps for Black Widow in a couple days. 53 tickets sold for Regal @charlie Jatinder

Shang-Chi Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

185

1752

10.56%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

118

1016

11.61%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
698	51	14780	4.72%	15	77

 

Black Widow day 5 comp: 8.37M

Suicide Squad comp: 10.08M

Fast 9 comp: 9.59M

 

64 tickets sold at Regals @charlie Jatinder

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Shang-Chi Megaplex

 

T-14 days Thursday: 615(+64)/16744 in 15 theaters

 

T-15 days Friday: 364(+53)/36161 in 15 theaters

 

Pretty meh day for Thursday. Friday did a little better than I expected

Shang-Chi Megaplex

 

T-13 days Thursday: 696(+81)/16744 in 15 theaters

 

T-14 days Friday: 477(+113)/36161 in 15 theaters

[TalismanRing]

Shang Chi 

(5:45pm 8/20/21)

NYC Regals

 

Local:  57/1402  (+10 tickets from 2 days ago)

42nd St E-Walk: 42/1064   (requires vaccination card - also across the street from AMC 25 which has IMAX and Dolby and is selling a lot more tickets)

[Menor the Destroyer]

13 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Shang-Chi Megaplex

 

T-13 days Thursday: 696(+81)/16744 in 15 theaters

 

T-14 days Friday: 477(+113)/36161 in 15 theaters

Interesting if it's starting to accelerate already. Trend does seem there for both Thursday and Friday. Although it seems opposite of Denver lol. 

Edited August 20, 2021 by Menor

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Good news is its easier to calculate ticket numbers but $ value is incredibly tough. I will anyway leave MTC2 to you :-

I think can use adult ticket rate for all seats & do minor upgrading for dbox.