The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric Duncan]

On 8/20/2021 at 12:20 AM, Free Eric said:

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	54	887	10896	8.14%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 58

 

Comp

0.479x of Black Widow T-14 (6.33M)

3.373x of The Suicide Squad T-14 (13.83M)

 

I didn't track F9 on T-14, so I'm skipping that, but it'll return tomorrow. I'm also ditching the "First X Days" stuff for Black Widow, as it'll get things more convoluted.

 

Either way, the big fan rush has finally died down, but both current comps should continue to rise, as Shang-Chi closes the gap and because TSS really sold poorly up until the reviews dropped later on in its sales cycle.

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	54	941	10896	8.64%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 54

 

Comp

1.199x of F9 T-13 (8.51M)

0.492x of Black Widow T-13 (6.49M)

3.422x of The Suicide Squad T-13 (14.03M)

 

I'll update w/ MTC3 count tomorrow monring

 

218 tickets from MTC3

[Madhuvan]

Shang-Chi presales look very promising , I expect around 7.5-8m in previews. OW range of around 60-70m 3-day ig. I am not sure how labor day will play out and how much boost it will give to Sunday. 

[charlie Jatinder]

43 minutes ago, Free Eric said:

1.199x of F9 T-13 (8.51M)

Ideally this is slightly worrisome but F9 overindexed in Philly so that's a relief.

[keysersoze123]

53 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Ideally this is slightly worrisome but F9 overindexed in Philly so that's a relief.

You are more worried about this than the fact that its < 40%of MTC2 at this point? Phily is still a big market where its doing well, there are other markets where its well below these numbers. 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Ideally this is slightly worrisome but F9 overindexed in Philly so that's a relief.

 

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

You are more worried about this than the fact that its < 40%of MTC2 at this point? Phily is still a big market where its doing well, there are other markets where its well below these numbers. 

 

FWIW, I'm about to start tonight's track for Shang-Chi, but as of last night in Sacto:

 

F9 T-14: 0.99794x [7.4m after adjusting for Ontario]

 

Don't forget though that F9 had about a week or so more pre-sales than SC and SC should be gaining on it over the next few days.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Shang-Chi and the Legends of the Ten Rings 

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	101	16035	17002	967	5.69%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

121

 

Day Four Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold Day Four	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	56.71		105	1603		0/104	16583/18186	8.81%		7.84m
SC (adj)	----		106	909		0/89	14046/14955	6.08%		----

COMP NOTE: BW Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: SC (adj) Is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's track.

 

T-14 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	36.55		106	2487		0/117	16647/19134	13.00%		5.05m
SC (adj)	----		106	909		0/89	14046/14955	6.08%		----

COMP NOTE: BW Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: SC (adj) Is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE: Black Widow has ten more days of pre-sales than Shang-Chi at this point in its track.

 

===

 

Very strong day for Shang-Chi locally.  Not much else to add aside from that.

 

As said yesterday, as of tomorrow, it'll be exclusively T-x comps.

 

For @charlie Jatinder:   Regal: 159/4469 [3.45% sold] [+19 tickets]

 

Shang-Chi and the Legends of the Ten Rings 

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	101	15938	17002	1064	6.26%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

97

 

T-13 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	38.85		77	2564		0/117	16570/19134	13.40%		5.37m
SC (adj)	----		87	996		0/89	13959/14955	6.66%		----

COMP NOTE: BW Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: SC (adj) Is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE: Black Widow has ten more days of pre-sales than Shang-Chi at this point in its track.

 

Regal: 190/4609 [4.12% sold] [+31 tickets]

 

===

 

Another very strong day of sales.  One caveat, however.  There were a lot of sales at two theaters, including 15 tickets sold at a 10pm showing which was an obvious group sale (nearly an entire row sold today), which likely won't be repeated on other nights.  The caveat to that caveat, however, is even if I dial back those two theaters to a more normal pattern seen elsewhere, Shang-Chi still would have had a very healthy night of around 70 tickets sold.

 

Mostly noting that there was something of a spike in Sacto tonight and don't be surprised if the number tomorrow looks a little lower in comparison.  

[Krissykins]

3 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

So around 12M OW?

 

Honestly for this type of movie also available at streaming this is great.

 

How's Free Guy doing? 15-16M would be excellent for this

I’d expect a sub 50% drop for Free Guy considering the A cinemascore and no at home option. Further cementing the fact that the at-home options cause huge drops (and if it’s F9). 

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

You are more worried about this than the fact that its < 40%of MTC2 at this point? Phily is still a big market where its doing well, there are other markets where its well below these numbers. 

MTC 2 was overindexing a lot in Summer. Ratio in last few films has been normal, so not worried. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Got busy elsewhere. But here we go with Harkins posts.

 

Paw Patrol Harkins Friday

 

State	Theaters	Sold	Gross
Arizona	15	3583	$29,510
California	4	1673	$15,880
Colorado	2	405	$3,294
Oklahoma	1	173	$1,211
Arizona (Est.)	10	2000	$17,000
Total	32	7834	$66,894

 

I tracked 22 theaters and based on 15 Arizona theaters, estimated the rest 10. As I mentioned above $67K Gross but actual may be $68-70K. Assuming missing REGAL had no impact on chain, that would be equivalent of $3.8-3.9M OD.

[Krissykins]

Anything projections for Candyman? 

 

I imagine it’ll be walk up heavy though. 

[charlie Jatinder]

On 8/20/2021 at 11:42 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

Shang Chi Harkins T-14 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	86	25,165	328	1.30%	$3,879	$11.83
Cine 1	16	4,818	459	9.53%	$7,184	$15.65
Cine Capri	4	1,782	32	1.80%	$456	$14.25
IMAX	2	890	93	10.45%	$1,395	$15.00
Total	108	32,655	912	2.79%	$12,914	$14.16

 

Another solid day of above 100, selling 138 seats. This feel weirdly strong day, most likely tomorrow we will have some drop.

 

Comps

53.6% of Black Widow first 4 days of sales - $7.5M

223% of The Suicide Squad T-7 days in CA - $9.15M*

 

Harkins

 

California Harkins

Shang Chi Harkins T-13 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	84	25,587	357	1.40%	$4,222	$11.83
Cine 1	16	4,818	532	11.04%	$8,300	$15.60
Cine Capri	4	1,782	35	1.96%	$501	$14.31
IMAX	2	890	96	10.79%	$1,440	$15.00
Total	106	33,077	1,020	3.08%	$14,463	$14.18

 

While tracking I thought it gonna miss 100 seats addition today but it did, selling 108. Nothing specific to say till T-7 days mark I suppose.

 

[john2000]

11 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Shang Chi Harkins T-13 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	84	25,587	357	1.40%	$4,222	$11.83
Cine 1	16	4,818	532	11.04%	$8,300	$15.60
Cine Capri	4	1,782	35	1.96%	$501	$14.31
IMAX	2	890	96	10.79%	$1,440	$15.00
Total	106	33,077	1,020	3.08%	$14,463	$14.18

 

While tracking I thought it gonna miss 100 seats addition today but it did, selling 108. Nothing specific to say till T-7 days mark I suppose.

 

Didnt you mean ?

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-13	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	5	36	5,621	200	39	3.56%
		Phoenix	6	27	4,769	240	26	5.03%
		Raleigh	7	26	3,314	271	10	8.18%
	Shang-Chi Total		18	89	13,704	711	75	5.19%
T-6	Candyman	Jacksonville	6	13	2,369	29	29	1.22%
		Phoenix	6	16	3,180	37	37	1.16%
		Raleigh	7	12	1,480	29	29	1.96%
	Candyman Total		19	41	7,029	95	95	1.35%

 

Candyman is tied with Snake Eyes at T-6 (95).

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-12	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	5	36	5,621	213	13	3.79%
		Phoenix	6	27	4,769	263	23	5.51%
		Raleigh	7	26	3,314	283	12	8.54%
	Shang-Chi Total		18	89	13,704	759	48	5.54%
T-5	Candyman	Jacksonville	6	13	2,369	30	1	1.27%
		Phoenix	6	16	3,180	40	3	1.26%
		Raleigh	7	12	1,480	35	6	2.36%
	Candyman Total		19	41	7,029	105	10	1.49%

 

Candyman is selling much better than any other horror/thriller I've tracked.  Horror would usually be in the ~30 range at this point.  Old and Green Knight both were at 54 tickets at T-5.  Not sure which direction will take, but it looks pretty good either way.

 

Shang-Chi has moved up one percentile on BW each day - currently at 35.6% on pace for 4.7m in previews. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Sacramento

 

 

If Shang Chi continue matching BW, that will be great. Of course it need not, but if it do, that will mean $11M ish previews.

Edited August 21, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Candyman is selling much better than any other horror/thriller I've tracked.  Horror would usually be in the ~30 range at this point.  Old and Green Knight both were at 54 tickets at T-5.  Not sure which direction will take, but it looks pretty good either way.

Phew, that’s a good start then. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Sacramento

 

 

If Shang Chi continue matching BW, that will be great. Of course it need not, but if it do, that will mean $11M ish previews.

Unlikely. A later PS start usually means lower late bumps in the second-to-last and final week (of course some of that will be offset by lower sales volume, but I'm not sure all of it will). Actually since BW's final week bumps were not that great I think SC can match them but for the next week it will be hard to keep pace since SC is still leaving the fan rush period while BW was well out of it. 

Edited August 21, 2021 by Menor

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, Menor said:

Unlikely. A later PS start usually means lower late bumps in the second-to-last and final week (of course some of that will be offset by lower sales volume, but I'm not sure all of it will). Actually since BW's final week bumps were not that great I think SC can match them but for the next week it will be hard to keep pace since SC is still leaving the fan rush period while BW was well out of it. 

 

Also is a chance that Sacto might slightly over-perform at the end of the day [even for the pandemic era] with a higher Asian American population.  Actually gonna be curious to see if there are relative bumps in areas like the West Coast to see if there is a difference than, say, Denver. 

 

For a point of comparison, in Sacramento the Asian population (as of the 2010 census) was about 18% of the city proper, more or less, while in Denver it is around 3% to 4%. Even if it's changed quite a bit in the last 10 years, it hasn't changed that much.

 

Shame we don't have the other Washington or California trackers at the moment, as I'd be curious to see if there was some sort of regional patterns developing.

 

Now I do realize I'm only looking at city demos here and not DMAs, but I think it's good enough for a rule-of-thumb. 

Edited August 21, 2021 by Porthos

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Also is a chance that Sacto might slightly over-perform at the end of the day [even for the pandemic era] with a higher Asian American population.  Actually gonna be curious to see if there are relative bumps in areas like the West Coast to see if there is a difference than, say, Denver. 

 

For a point of comparison, in Sacramento the Asian population (as of the 2010 census) was about 18% of the city proper, more or less, while in Denver it is around 3% to 4%. Even if it's changed quite a bit in the last 10 years, it hasn't changed that much.

 

Shame we don't have the other Washington or California trackers at the moment, as I'd be curious to see if there was some sort of regional patterns developing.

 

Now I do realize I'm only looking at city demos here and not DMAs, but I think it's good enough for a rule-of-thumb. 

It seems to be doing quite well in Denver so far though. At least the F9 comp is much better than Sac although that may be due to F9's relative performance more than Shang-Chi.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

It seems to be doing quite well in Denver so far though. At least the F9 comp is much better than Sac although that may be due to F9's relative performance more than Shang-Chi.

 

Well, it is Marvel. At this point that matters more, IMO.  Still I do know it's doing well in Denver at the moment which is why I made sure to add "at the end of the day" to my post.

 

Still, only five days in, so too early IMO to really say one way or the other.  Think of my post more of a "this could happen; be on the lookout for signs of it in case it does" than a "this will probably happen".

[TwoMisfits]

25 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Also is a chance that Sacto might slightly over-perform at the end of the day [even for the pandemic era] with a higher Asian American population.  Actually gonna be curious to see if there are relative bumps in areas like the West Coast to see if there is a difference than, say, Denver. 

 

For a point of comparison, in Sacramento the Asian population (as of the 2010 census) was about 18% of the city proper, more or less, while in Denver it is around 3% to 4%. Even if it's changed quite a bit in the last 10 years, it hasn't changed that much.

 

Shame we don't have the other Washington or California trackers at the moment, as I'd be curious to see if there was some sort of regional patterns developing.

 

Now I do realize I'm only looking at city demos here and not DMAs, but I think it's good enough for a rule-of-thumb. 

 

I was gonna mention that when I saw Phoenix, Jax, and Raleigh underperforming some of the rest of you...they all don't have high Asian pops...