The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TwoMisfits]

10 hours ago, Menor said:

Shang-Chi MTC2

 

Note: showtime numbers are affected by Cinemark's change in the way they handle DBOX screenings. Sales numbers may also be affected. So don't take the daily pace too seriously yet. 

 

Thursday:

Showings: 1940 (-114)

Seats Sold: 12408/320677 (+2130)

 

Idk.

 

Paw Patrol MTC2

 

Friday:

Showings: 1933 (+32)

Seats Sold: 17989/240940 (+4219)

 

It's strong in isolation but this seems to be massively overindexing in MTC2. 

 

Edit: Looking at Friday partial numbers, I think there is some effect from the DBOX change. Will investigate more tomorrow. 

 

 

MTC 2 subscribers are the "family plans" since they are 1 ticket/month with ability to buy extra at subscriber price (aka discount)...MTC 1 (and 3) are the non-family plan subscribers with no ability for discounted extra people...

 

So, the non-family subscribers are avoiding while the family ones are all in for Paw Patrol:)...

[charlie Jatinder]

49 minutes ago, Free Eric said:

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

Eric I think you missed my post. If it isn't inconvenient to you, can you mention REGALs you track separately in subtext.

 

I am trying to see if can make some sense of REGAL numbers. I suppose you might not able to do now for yesterday numbers, so can start from tomorrow onward.

Edited August 19, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Eric Loves Rey]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

Eric I think you missed my post. If it isn't inconvenient to you, can you mention REGALs you track separately in subtext.

 

I am trying to see if can make some sense of REGAL numbers. 

I did read your post, but I forgot to do that part. Sorry, but I was trying to rush all these posts just to get it over with.

 

Of the five Regals I track (I track 17 theaters in total), they sold 193 tickets, about 23% of all tickets sold thus far. If you want me to keep updating you about MTC3 in the future, I'll continue to do so

[charlie Jatinder]

So we have 471 in 22 REGALs. Currently 523 REGALs are open and using simple average that would mean 11.2K sales, which is quite low. But these REGALs are most likely the lower tier especially Denver and Florida ones.

I will try to make some sense of these.

 

Thanks @Porthos @katnisscinnaplex @Inceptionzq and @Free Eric. Keep them coming.

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

So we have 471 in 22 REGALs. Currently 523 REGALs are open and using simple average that would mean 11.2K sales, which is quite low. But these REGALs are most likely the lower tier especially Denver and Florida ones.

I will try to make some sense of these.

 

Thanks @Porthos @katnisscinnaplex @Inceptionzq and @Free Eric. Keep them coming.

 

I have 2 Regals...

 

Shang Chi is getting underplayed at both (for a supers movie), but here's the stats for Thursday night...

 

1st Regal (low performer 10) - 3 showings (2 2d, 1 3d) - 4/125, 6/200 for 10/325 in 2d and 4/50 in 3d

 

2nd Regal (high supers performer 12) - 4 showings (3 2d, 1 3d) - 18/175, 36/130, 3/175 for 57/480 and 7/100 in 3d

 

Not sure how often I'll ever post numbers, but if you ping me for a Thursday night Shang Chi Regal reading, I'll try to grab it in 12-24 hours...

[el sid]

Reminiscence counted today at 11am EST for Friday, August 20:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 82 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 10 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 4 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 6 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 5 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 83 (7 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 72 (6 showtimes)
 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 262.
Up 16% since yesterday.

Comps (all counted on Thursday for Friday): Stillwater (5.2M OW) had 72 sold tickets in 6 theaters (so here vs 180),
THWB (11.4M OW) had in 7 theaters 203 sold tickets (but a way better jump of 54% from Wednesday to Thursday)
and TWWMD had in 4 theaters 89 sold tickets, Reminiscence has in the same 4 theaters 242 sold tickets today.
The final number is still not terrible so I would say sub-10M OW.

Paw Patrol: The Movie counted today at 11am EST for Friday, August 20:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): no showtimes
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 97 (7 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 57 (7 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 38 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 14 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 19 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 90 (5 showtimes)
 

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 315.

Up only 13% since yesterday.
Comps (all counted on Thursday for Friday): Dolittle (21.8M OW) had in 7 theaters 395 sold tickets and in the same 6 theaters 305.
JC (35.0M OW) had 817 sold tickets in 7 theaters and in the same 6 theaters 677.
And The Boss Baby 2 (16.0M OW) had in the same 6 theaters 190 sold tickets.
The comps still point ca. to 20M OW but I don't like that the jump is way lower than that of The Boss Baby 2 (36% jump from Wednesday to Thursday) or Dolittle (68% jump).
OTOH if I look at other tracking reports here, my small jump seems to be an outlier.

The Protege counted today at 11am EST for Friday, August 20:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 21 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 7 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 5 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 5 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 22 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 31 (3 showtimes)
 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 91.

Comps: The Rhythm Section had on Thursday for Friday 157 sold tickets in the same 7 theaters
and TWWMD had 89 in 4 (so vs 79 here).
Even with ok walk-ups a sub-5M OW is my guess (too).
 

The Night House counted today at 11am EST for Friday, August 20:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 16 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 2 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 1 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): no showtimes
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 1 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 29 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 41 (3 showtimes)
 

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 90.

Comps: Old (16.9M OW) had on Thursday for Friday 500 sold tickets,
Don't Breathe 2 (10.6M OW) had on Thursday for Friday 293 sold tickets,
and The Forever Purge (12.6M OW) had on Thursday for Thursday 241 sold tickets.
Maybe ca. 3M OW?

Overall another disappointing day for all movies. Even some showtimes were cancelled.

Candyman had today in 7 theaters 75 sold tickets. I read here that the reactions range from great to slow and not scary. However, presales-wise that was a good start.

[katnisscinnaplex]

8 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-0	The Night House	Jacksonville	5	8	811	12	6	1.48%
		Phoenix	6	9	1,074	14	2	1.30%
		Raleigh	6	12	1,246	14	4	1.12%
	The Night House Total		17	29	3,131	40	12	1.28%
	The Protégé	Jacksonville	5	8	970	16	-1	1.65%
		Phoenix	6	9	1,370	34	8	2.48%
		Raleigh	7	12	1,423	20	7	1.41%
	The Protégé Total		18	29	3,763	70	14	1.86%

 

For previews tonight, only 26 tickets sold for Night House AND Protégé yesterday... one day before they open.   Zola had 72 at this point, but didn't report preview gross.  12 Mighty Orphans had 48 on it's expansion Thursday; again, not reported.   Stillwater had 67 on Thursday morning and earned 280k.  

Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
The Night House	Jacksonville	5	8	811	33	21	4.07%
	Phoenix	6	9	1,074	26	12	2.42%
	Raleigh	6	12	1,246	34	20	2.73%
The Night House Total		17	29	3,131	93	53	2.97%
The Protégé	Jacksonville	5	8	970	31	15	3.20%
	Phoenix	6	9	1,370	47	13	3.43%
	Raleigh	7	12	1,423	39	19	2.74%
The Protégé Total		18	29	3,763	117	47	3.11%

 

T-1 hour final run. 

 

Here are my lowest T-1 totals for comparison.

 

Joe Bell - 26

Zola - 104

Stillwater - 134

Roadrunner - 184

 

I wanna say we shouldn't expect preview numbers for these based on these three markets.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Shang-Chi Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

154

1752

8.79%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

83

1016

8.17%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 16 HOURS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
554	40	13962	3.97%	14	75

 

Black Widow day 3 comp: 7.97M

Suicide Squad comp: 8.94M

Fast 9 comp: 9.19M

 

So as expected, the comps fell. Except for TSS, but that's just due to the weakness of its presales, especially in the middling days. 44 tickets sold at the 6 Regals @charlie Jatinder. Not sure how useful that'll be because they aren't presale heavy in Denver.

Shang-Chi Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

168

1752

9.59%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

108

1016

10.63%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
647	93	13962	4.63%	14	75

 

Black Widow day 4 comp: 8.57M

Suicide Squad comp: 10.12M

Fast 9 comp: 10.12M

 

Solid day. Will probably start doing the T-X comps for Black Widow in a couple days. 53 tickets sold for Regal @charlie Jatinder

[Legion Again]

Man I know that comps this early are pretty “take it with a grain of salt”, but I’m not sure if people have processed that 10M is like O/U BW 3-day O/U 100M 4day kind of numbers.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Shang-Chi Megaplex

 

T-15 days Thursday: 551(+63)/16744 in 15 theaters

 

T-16 days Friday: 311(+29)/36161 in 15 theaters

 

Keep in mind, this is 16ish hours of data. Still no comps, but looking ahead, Black Widow had 1519 tickets sold for Thursday on its 6th day of presales, and 842 tickets for Friday. Don't think Thursday will be on pace to be in the 7.5-8M range for the comp. Not exactly sure what to make of Friday's pace because I expect that to be more walkup friendly than BW, but the first comp will probably be under 15M.

Shang-Chi Megaplex

 

T-14 days Thursday: 615(+64)/16744 in 15 theaters

 

T-15 days Friday: 364(+53)/36161 in 15 theaters

 

Pretty meh day for Thursday. Friday did a little better than I expected

[Eric Loves Rey]

10 hours ago, Free Eric said:

The Night House Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	20	66	2302	2.87%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 26

 

Comp

0.442x of The Forever Purge T-1 (589K)

0.258x of Escape Room 2 T-1 (309K)

0.251x of Old T-1 (376K)

The Night House Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	20	113	2302	4.91%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 47

 

Comp

0.154x of The Forever Purge (205K)

0.195x of Escape Room 2 (235K)

0.132x of Old (198K)

 

Really bad day today. Don't expect much from this

[Eric Loves Rey]

10 hours ago, Free Eric said:

The Protege Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	20	44	2675	1.64%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 15

 

Comp

0.169x of Snake Eyes T-1 (237K)

0.145x of Free Guy T-1 (318K)

The Protege Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	20	123	2675	4.60%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 79

 

Comp

0.237x of The Hitman's Wife's Bodyguard Tue+Wed (934K)

0.189x of Snake Eyes (264K)

0.176x of Free Guy (386K)

 

By contrast, this is doing...better, but not anything exciting to speak of. But if you had to choose between which two would be the victor, then I suppose this is the better bet.

 

PAW Patrol and Reminiscence's final counts will be up later tonight

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Shang-Chi Megaplex

 

T-14 days Thursday: 615(+64)/16744 in 15 theaters

 

T-15 days Friday: 364(+53)/36161 in 15 theaters

 

Pretty meh day for Thursday. Friday did a little better than I expected

 

On 6/24/2021 at 12:59 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow Megaplex

 

T-14 days Thursday: 2030(+57)/21439 in 14 theaters. $28,420 with $14 ATP

 

T-15 days Friday: 1235(+47)/36370 in 14 theaters. $16,673 with $13.50 ATP

 

 

^^^^

 

its still ahead of BW for similar day though that had many more days of PS. Can it stay ahead next at your megaplex?

 

Anyway 

 

Shang Chi (T-14)

MTC1 - 32359/319074 558849.21 1563 shows 425 theaters. 

MTC2 - 12944/314825 roughly 180K 2029 shows 308 Theaters

 

Slow moving days ahead as expected. Skew is at SS level but at higher level. 

 

Friday just MTC1(T-15) - 19223/690293 325297.30 3300 shows. 

 

Good news is friday pace is slightly better than previews at this time. Anyway 

[Inceptionzq]

2 hours ago, Lokis Legion said:

Man I know that comps this early are pretty “take it with a grain of salt”, but I’m not sure if people have processed that 10M is like O/U BW 3-day O/U 100M 4day kind of numbers.

I would still be careful with those comps up until the last update. I wouldn’t expect Shang-Chi to have a last few days like F9 or TSS, relatively speaking.

TSS[ticket increase multipliers in Denver]:

T-3 days to release - 3.18x

T-1 day to release - 2.20x

 

F9(with release day counted an hour early):

T-3 days to release: 2.72x

T-1 day to release: 1.87x

 

BW:

T-3 days to release: 2.04x

T-1 day to release: 1.56x

I don’t think the multipliers for Shang-Chi are likely to be as low as Black Widow, but same as to be as high as F9 and TSS.
 

Basically all I’m saying is that the F9 and TSS comps will have to show well above 10M throughout the last few days for them to actually land there. On the flip side, I think there’ll be hope for the BW comp to land at 10M if it’s tracking at high 8s-low 9s by the last few days.

[keysersoze123]

Paw Patrol Friday

MTC1 - overall 2327 shows 29965/338697 321774.14

 

I must admit its final day PS has been excellent and that bodes well for its OD BO. 

[Legion Again]

Yup, I would expect maybe Denver T-3 2.4x and T-1 1.7x from that data. Definitely not expecting 10 atm (or even 9), but if it keeps having solid days…. who knows

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Paw Patrol Friday

MTC1 - overall 2327 shows 29965/338697 321774.14

 

I must admit its final day PS has been excellent and that bodes well for its OD BO. 

There's still 6 hours to go, so I guess can finish around 33-34K ish and may be 100K final OD for $1.2M including non tracked theaters.

 

Can safely go for $5M+

 

Edited August 20, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

32 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

I don’t think the multipliers for Shang-Chi are likely to be as low as Black Widow, but same as to be as high as F9 and TSS.

Its not just the multi from T-3 days to say before previews start may differ but walk-in during previews change thing a lot.

 

TSS in Harkins did 1.5x its 5PM numbers to final previews while FG did around 2x.

[charlie Jatinder]

39 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Yup, I would expect maybe Denver T-3 2.4x and T-1 1.7x from that data. Definitely not expecting 10 atm (or even 9), but if it keeps having solid days…. who knows

Per my extrapolation, T-14 days, SC was 1.4M while BW was 2.8M.

 

BW added 10.5M after that till final. SC need to do 70% of BW daily pace to hit $9M and 80% for $10M. Not impossible or that hard to imagine either.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Paw Patrol need to gross $19M approx to be watched by more people than TSS weekend.

 

For pure FSS need only $16.5M.