The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/21/2021 at 8:22 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-12	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	5	36	5,621	213	13	3.79%
		Phoenix	6	27	4,769	263	23	5.51%
		Raleigh	7	26	3,314	283	12	8.54%
	Shang-Chi Total		18	89	13,704	759	48	5.54%
T-5	Candyman	Jacksonville	6	13	2,369	30	1	1.27%
		Phoenix	6	16	3,180	40	3	1.26%
		Raleigh	7	12	1,480	35	6	2.36%
	Candyman Total		19	41	7,029	105	10	1.49%

 

Candyman is selling much better than any other horror/thriller I've tracked.  Horror would usually be in the ~30 range at this point.  Old and Green Knight both were at 54 tickets at T-5.  Not sure which direction will take, but it looks pretty good either way.

 

Shang-Chi has moved up one percentile on BW each day - currently at 35.6% on pace for 4.7m in previews. 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-11	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	5	36	5,621	228	15	4.06%
		Phoenix	6	27	4,769	280	17	5.87%
		Raleigh	7	26	3,314	298	15	8.99%
	Shang-Chi Total		18	89	13,704	806	47	5.88%
T-4	Candyman	Jacksonville	6	14	2,566	44	14	1.71%
		Phoenix	6	16	3,180	46	6	1.45%
		Raleigh	7	12	1,480	37	2	2.50%
	Candyman Total		19	42	7,226	127	22	1.76%

 

Not too much to take away from these.  Shang-Chi has been following pretty close to F9's sales pattern, maintaining its ~65 tickets lead.   Here's the breakdown by chain

 

Movie	AMC	Cinemark	Regal	Grand Total
Black Widow	1201	664	357	2222
F9: The Fast Saga	466	181	96	743
Shang-Chi	495	178	133	806
Suicide Squad	177	77	36	290
Movie	AMC	Cinemark	Regal	Grand Total
Black Widow	54.05%	29.88%	16.07%	100.00%
F9: The Fast Saga	62.72%	24.36%	12.92%	100.00%
Shang-Chi	61.41%	22.08%	16.50%	100.00%
Suicide Squad	61.03%	26.55%	12.41%	100.00%

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, CJohn said:

No way Shang-Chi goes above 40M 4 day OW anyway,

It’s gonna pass this with the 2day.

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Yes if it was selling to capacity but BW was barely 25-30% IIRC. 1 hour less previews will hardly make any impact on the people watching the film but have 1 of 3 shows them watch with discounted price is gonna impact the gross.

I am not convinced. I mean even from admits it was fairly clear that BW's true Friday would be in the 26 million range by the end. I don't think the ATP trend made a huge difference to the ratio vs F9 which had 7pm previews I think.

[charlie Jatinder]

22 minutes ago, Menor said:

I am not convinced. I mean even from admits it was fairly clear that BW's true Friday would be in the 26 million range by the end. I don't think the ATP trend made a huge difference to the ratio vs F9 which had 7pm previews I think.

I didn't entirely get what's your point is, what I was saying is BW had 1.1M admits on THU for $13.2M. If the shows had started at 6PM or simply 5PM shows weren't discounted the gross would have been $14M+.

 

With that the previews ratio of OD would be more than existing (13.2/39.5 = 33.4%).

 

@Lokis Legion was pointing that BW had 33% Previews/OD ratio so far SC may be 30-32% but now knowing how gross was deflated due to discounted shows, the ratio would have been 35%+ which matches with MCU trend of previews ratio getting bigger. So Shang Chi would be closer to 33-34% theoretically.

 

The 2nd point is that majority of our tracker comp with using admits, since Shang Chi won't have discounted shows its ATP will be higher leading to higher gross than what admits comp would suggest.

 

It won't matter for MTC tracking because there we use gross anyways.

 

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I didn't entirely get what's your point is, what I was saying is BW had 1.1M admits on THU for $13.2M. If the shows had started at 6PM or simply 5PM shows weren't discounted the gross would have been $14M+.

 

With that the previews ratio of OD would be more than existing (13.2/39.5 = 33.4%).

 

@Lokis Legion was pointing that BW had 33% Previews/OD ratio so far SC may be 30-32% but now knowing how gross was deflated due to discounted shows, the ratio would have been 35%+ which matches with MCU trend of previews ratio getting bigger. So Shang Chi would be closer to 33-34% theoretically.

 

The 2nd point is that majority of our tracker comp with using admits, since Shang Chi won't have discounted shows its ATP will be higher leading to higher gross than what admits comp would suggest.

 

It won't matter for MTC tracking because there we use gross anyways.

 

 

 

What I mean is that if shows started at 6pm then admits would have been lower. So we cannot just adjust like that and some of those lost admits would spill into Friday. It's not just about capacity but people deciding what time is convenient and booking then.

[charlie Jatinder]

In Harkins, Black Widow had;

 

4,914 admits in 63 shows before 6PM for $48,824 with ATP of $9.93.

16,269 admits in 293 shows after 6PM for $194,241 with ATP of $11.93.

 

Now if all these shows were post 6PM, they would have amounted to $253K gross instead of $243K. 

Since most of are regional trackers use admits as comp, if I were to say compare 15K admits of SC with 21.2K of BW, I will come to $9.2M as result but $180K gross which I will get from 15K admits for SC against $243K of BW will suggest $9.6M previews.

That's what I was referring to @Menor

[TwoMisfits]

On 8/19/2021 at 12:33 PM, TwoMisfits said:

 

I have 2 Regals...

 

Shang Chi is getting underplayed at both (for a supers movie), but here's the stats for Thursday night...

 

1st Regal (low performer 10) - 3 showings (2 2d, 1 3d) - 4/125, 6/200 for 10/325 in 2d and 4/50 in 3d

 

2nd Regal (high supers performer 12) - 4 showings (3 2d, 1 3d) - 18/175, 36/130, 3/175 for 57/480 and 7/100 in 3d

 

Not sure how often I'll ever post numbers, but if you ping me for a Thursday night Shang Chi Regal reading, I'll try to grab it in 12-24 hours...

 

So, it's 3 days later...yeah, I can probably wait a week for another update...

 

1st Regal - 0 new seats sold - still 10/325 and 4/50 - I did say this was the "bigger dud overall and for supers" theater

2nd Regal - 10 new seats sold - 8 2d (all in one show - the most crowded 7pm one) and 2 3d - so it's 67/480 and 9/100 now

[TalismanRing]

On 8/20/2021 at 5:54 PM, TalismanRing said:

Shang Chi 

(5:45pm 8/20/21)

NYC Regals

 

Local:  57/1402  (+10 tickets from 2 days ago)

42nd St E-Walk: 42/1064   (requires vaccination card - also across the street from AMC 25 which has IMAX and Dolby and is selling a lot more tickets)

 

(4pm) (8/22/21)

 

Local: 78/1402  =  21 seats added, +36.8%

E WALK: 47/1064 = 5 seats added,  +11.9%

 

 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Shang-Chi Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

194

1752

11.07%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

129

1016

12.70%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
743	45	14780	5.03%	15	77

 

T-X Black Widow comp: 5.53M

Suicide Squad comp: 10.36M

Fast 9 comp: 9.59M

 

No more of the BW day X comp. Normal Black Widow comp seems to pretty much be in line with others. A very nice 69 tickets for Regals @charlie Jatinder

Shang-Chi Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

208

1752

11.87%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

141

1016

13.88%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
804	61	14780	5.44%	15	77

 

Black Widow comp: 5.75M

Suicide Squad comp: 10.77M

Fast 9 comp: 9.88M

 

82 tickets for Regals

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Shang-Chi Megaplex

 

T-12 days Thursday: 751(+55)/16744 in 15 theaters

 

Black Widow day 6 comp: 6.48M

Normal Black Widow comp: 4.45M

 

T-13 days Friday: 531(+54)/36161 in 15 theaters

 

Black Widow day 6 comp: 16.59M

Normal Black Widow comp: 9.64M

 

I'm only doing the day X comps today, just did them since I haven't had any previous days. Like I kinda mentioned in another post, I think the presales have been relatively weak so far. For a fan-driven movie at least.

Shang-Chi Megaplex

 

T-11 days Thursday: 787(+36)/16744 in 15 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 4.57M

 

T-12 days Friday: 556(+25)/36161 in 15 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 9.63M

 

At least Thursday's comp increased...

[Menor the Destroyer]

9 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Shang-Chi Megaplex

 

T-11 days Thursday: 787(+36)/16744 in 15 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 4.57M

 

T-12 days Friday: 556(+25)/36161 in 15 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 9.63M

 

At least Thursday's comp increased...

Do you have an F9 comp?

[Inceptionzq]

7 minutes ago, Menor said:

Do you have an F9 comp?

No, not until Thursday

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Free Eric said:

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	54	978	10896	8.98%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 37

 

Comp

1.156x of F9 T-12 (8.21M)

0.483x of Black Widow T-12 (6.38M)

3.282x of The Suicide Squad T-12 (13.46M)

 

224 tickets from MTC3

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	54	1057	10896	9.70%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 79

 

Comp

1.222x of F9 T-11 (8.68M)

0.503x of Black Widow T-11 (6.64M)

3.535x of The Suicide Squad T-11 (14.49M)

[EmpireCity]

14 hours ago, CJohn said:

Remember when @EmpireCity said I was too low on everything on my "End of Summer" predictions?

 

Lets see how that is going so far...

 

- Paw Patrol - 6M OW

Disaster. I was expecting just 2.700 theaters, but even if I knew about the 3.200 theaters it got instead I would have gone to 10M OW and not more, so that would have still been too low.

 

- The Protege - 3M OW

Right on the money. One for me.

 

- Reminiscence - 5M OW

Too high actually. It will do this in total. 

 

- The Night House - 7M OW

Lmao fucking hell "mostly too low on everything" he said.

 

Next week we have Candyman, for which I predicted 18M OW, and in 2 weeks Shang-Chi (34M 4 day OW). No way Shang-Chi goes above 40M 4 day OW anyway, and everyone might just get used to that. 

 

So you were hilariously off on the best opener of the week and I missed on a few films nobody gave a shit about.  Oh, and you are going to be WAY off on Shang-Chi.  

 

I know if I was this terrible, I would definitely tag me and brag about how shit the relevant predictions are.  

 

Oh, and your "theaters are dead" troll is also turning out to be a complete fucking joke.  

 

Great job here, CJ. 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Shang-Chi and the Legends of the Ten Rings 

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	101	15853	17002	1149	6.76%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

85

 

T-12 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	40.48		94	2658		0/119	16602/19260	13.80%		5.60m
SC (adj)	----		80	1076		0/89	13879/14955	7.19%		----

COMP NOTE: BW Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: SC (adj) Is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE: Black Widow has ten more days of pre-sales than Shang-Chi at this point in its track.

 

Regal: 211/4609 [4.58% sold] [+21 tickets]

 

Shang-Chi and the Legends of the Ten Rings 

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	101	15781	17002	1221	7.18%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

72

 

T-11 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	41.43		108	2766		0/119	16494/19260	14.36%		5.73m
SC (adj)	----		70	1146		0/89	13809/14955	7.66%		----

COMP NOTE: BW Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: SC (adj) Is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE: Black Widow has ten more days of pre-sales than Shang-Chi at this point in its track.

 

Regal: 227/4609 [4.93% sold] [+16 tickets]

[charlie Jatinder]

On 8/22/2021 at 11:12 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

Shang Chi Harkins T-12 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	86	25,587	383	1.50%	$4,507	$11.77
Cine 1	16	4,818	564	11.71%	$8,797	$15.60
Cine Capri	4	1,782	41	2.30%	$591	$14.41
IMAX	2	890	104	11.69%	$1,560	$15.00
Total	108	33,077	1,092	3.30%	$15,455	$14.15

 

First day below 100 with, 72 sold today, but nothing out of ordinary I suppose. T-7 days is what matters.

Shang Chi Harkins T-11 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	86	25,587	442	1.73%	$5,184	$11.73
Cine 1	16	4,818	599	12.43%	$9,338	$15.59
Cine Capri	4	1,782	53	2.97%	$771	$14.55
IMAX	2	890	104	11.69%	$1,560	$15.00
Total	108	33,077	1,198	3.62%	$16,853	$14.07

 

And it managed 106 today. Good day. The film is doing better in CA but other regions are low. Let's see if it can get 700-800 more in next 4 days. That's the target.

Edited August 23, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Krissykins]

Is there any update on Candyman’s presales/tracking? 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/22/2021 at 9:09 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-11	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	5	36	5,621	228	15	4.06%
		Phoenix	6	27	4,769	280	17	5.87%
		Raleigh	7	26	3,314	298	15	8.99%
	Shang-Chi Total		18	89	13,704	806	47	5.88%
T-4	Candyman	Jacksonville	6	14	2,566	44	14	1.71%
		Phoenix	6	16	3,180	46	6	1.45%
		Raleigh	7	12	1,480	37	2	2.50%
	Candyman Total		19	42	7,226	127	22	1.76%

 

Not too much to take away from these.  Shang-Chi has been following pretty close to F9's sales pattern, maintaining its ~65 tickets lead.   Here's the breakdown by chain

 

Movie	AMC	Cinemark	Regal	Grand Total
Black Widow	1201	664	357	2222
F9: The Fast Saga	466	181	96	743
Shang-Chi	495	178	133	806
Suicide Squad	177	77	36	290
Movie	AMC	Cinemark	Regal	Grand Total
Black Widow	54.05%	29.88%	16.07%	100.00%
F9: The Fast Saga	62.72%	24.36%	12.92%	100.00%
Shang-Chi	61.41%	22.08%	16.50%	100.00%
Suicide Squad	61.03%	26.55%	12.41%	100.00%

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-10	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	5	36	5,621	245	17	4.36%
		Phoenix	6	27	4,769	303	23	6.35%
		Raleigh	7	26	3,314	311	13	9.38%
	Shang-Chi Total		18	89	13,704	859	53	6.27%
T-3	Candyman	Jacksonville	6	14	2,566	54	10	2.10%
		Phoenix	6	16	3,180	57	11	1.79%
		Raleigh	7	12	1,480	47	10	3.18%
	Candyman Total		19	42	7,226	158	31	2.19%

 

Using adult ticket prices, Shang-Chi has earned $11,862 in these theaters compared to BW's $30,882 at this point.  That tracks with total tickets where SC is at 36.8% of BW's total at T-10.  That would point to 4.86m for previews, but it continues to climb as it makes up for the late start. 

 

Candyman comps are pointing to mid 2m for previews, but there's still a big range for it to fall in.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Review drop today will hopefully give Shang-Chi a bump. It does seem like it stabilized from the fan rush yesterday so perfect time to start the run up to release anyway.

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

Review drop today will hopefully give Shang-Chi a bump. It does seem like it stabilized from the fan rush yesterday so perfect time to start the run up to release anyway.

they  also released a brand new trailer of shorts