The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

Exciting times. We all knew there would be a rush to buy. Will be interesting to watch how the trend plays out. How huge will this be? 

 

Just be careful putting too much faith and "OW Math conversion" on the initial day rush - it's gonna be movie subscribers and fanbase today...whether GA non fans buy for the OW or wait it out is still TBD., both based on later increased theater set decisions and family viewing decisions...

 

I'd expect 98% of subscriber bases bought today (b/c we know current subscribers are not the base going to adult movies seeing those turnouts, but are "blockbuster seeking" subscribers, and this is the most desired movie of that group in the surveys)...so we'll see how further days go...

Edited November 29, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[Ms Lady Hawk]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Just be careful putting too much faith and "OW Math conversion" on the initial day rush - it's gonna be movie subscribers and fanbase today...whether GA non fans buy for the OW or wait it out is still TBD., both based on later increased theater set decisions and family viewing decisions...

 

I'd expect 98% of subscriber bases bought today (b/c we know current subscribers are not the base going to adult movies seeing thos turnouts, but are "blockbuster seeking" subscribers, and this is the most desired movie of that group in the surveys)...so we'll see how further days go...

Thank you! I know we need to wait for a bit more data, but this is exciting. Still committed to my 135 opening week prediction. Spider Man movies seem to always start very very strong in pre-sales. 

[charlie Jatinder]

23 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

13 hours to go.

 😋

We are easily over $15M now. How much more, will know as more numbers keep coming IN.

[XXR & Friends]

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

We are easily over $15M now. How much more, will know as more numbers keep coming IN.

At this point, most of the initial rush has already burnt off. So our target is probably in the $20-25M range I imagine.

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, VenomXXR said:

At this point, most of the initial rush has already burnt off. So our target is probably in the $20-25M range I imagine.

There is like really good chance we are already over $20M but we need more data to confirm that. So far we have very limited data.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 10/12/2021 at 2:39 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

AMC Empire 25

 

Eternals

IMAX - 153 (2 shows)

Dolby - 241 (2)

Prime 3D - 35 (2)

3D - 8 (2)

Standard - 28 (6)

Total - 465 (14) $11.5K

 

0.97x of Black Widow

1.88x of Shang Chi

 

I think Dune was slightly better in IMAX and Dolby.

AMC Empire 25 (11 Hours)

 

IMAX - 848 (3 shows) - $19.7K (94%)

Dolby - 647 (3) - $15K (96%)

Prime 3D - 302 (3) - $7.9K

3D - 191 (2) - $4K

Standard - 1825 (19) - $33K

 

Total - 3813 (30) $80K

 

8.2x 1st day of Eternals

15.4x 1st day of Shang Chi

7.95x 1st day of Black Widow

 

 

[XXR & Friends]

17 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

There is like really good chance we are already over $20M but we need more data to confirm that. So far we have very limited data.

So doing some head math. Let’s say TROS was $18M first 24HR’s. We know how presales and previews heavy SW is. If we give NWH a 10% bump to account for heavier online sales in 2021 vs 2019, and another 10% bump for ATP; I’m thinking $22-23M 1st day sales has us pointing towards a preview north of $35M and $25M 1st day sales perhaps even over $40M!

Edited November 29, 2021 by VenomXXR

[keysersoze123]

Empire numbers are crazy strong. Joker did 4K+ final and I did not any movie come close to that number since then. This will probably come close to 10K by release day. 

[Inceptionzq]

No Way Home Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1455

2487

58.50%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1006

1947

51.67%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 11 HRS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
6470	6470	22831	28.34%	15	129

 

AMCs sold	4166
Cinemarks sold	1122
Regals sold	717
Harkins sold	465

 

Eternals final comp: 13.81M

NTTD final comp: 13.74M

Shang-Chi final comp: 14.11M

Black Widow final comp: 13.42M

Adjusted TRoS final comp: 16.28M

 

Adjusted TRoS 17 hours comp: 35.84M

 

Obviously pre-pandemic comps aren't gonna be perfect, but I still think TRoS comp is very worth having on here. There is a glaring disparity between the final RoS comp and the final pandemic comps. Plus, the difference in presale length is gonna make it hard for the normal comp until we get closer though. But again, still worth having on IMO. These numbers are stellar and what I truly live for with tracking.

[Inceptionzq]

7 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Megaplex

 

T-17 days Thursday(90 showings): 6613/25602 in 14 theaters

 

T-18 days Friday(120 showings): 2872/33296 in 14 theaters

 

T-19 days Saturday(129 showings): 834/36246 in 15 theaters

 

T-20 days Sunday(122 showings): 159/35375 in 13 theaters

 

Obviously a great start, especially with all the problems that it had for a while.

No Way Home Megaplex(11 hours of sales)

 

T-17 days Thursday(90 showings): 9703(+3090)/25602 in 14 theaters

 

Eternals final comp: 19.04M

NTTD final comp: 15.03M

Shang-Chi final comp: 20.07M

Black Widow final comp: 15.47M

 

T-18 days Friday(120 showings): 4990(+2118)/33296 in 14 theaters

 

Eternals final comp: 20.26M

NTTD final comp: 11.50M

Shang-Chi final comp: 24.55M

Black Widow final comp: 14.13M

 

T-19 days Saturday(129 showings): 1706(+872)/36246 in 15 theaters

 

Eternals final comp: 9.07M

NTTD final comp: 4.80M

 

T-20 days Sunday(122 showings): 325(+166)/35375 in 13 theaters

 

The underperformances of SC and Eternals are quite obvious here. Numbers are still insane though, thousands of tickets sold in about 8 hours and it's still kinda early.

[Inceptionzq]

7 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-17 days Thursday(217 showings): 6906/29030

 

T-18 days Friday(277 showings): 3040/37576

 

T-19 days Saturday(309 showings): 1342/41573

 

T-20 days Sunday(265 showings): 403/35780

No Way Home Alamo Drafthouse(11 hours of sales)

 

T-17 days Thursday(232 showings): 13922(+7016)/30658(+1628)

 

Eternals final comp: 13.17M

 

T-18 days Friday(292 showings): 8502(+5462)/39498(+1922)

 

Eternals final comp: 13.84M

 

T-19 days Saturday(323 showings): 5205(+3863)/43374(+1801)

 

Eternals final comp: 8.42M

 

T-20 days Sunday(274 showings): 1794(+1391)/36938(+1158)

[titanic2187]

The number of pages added to this thread since I last log in is sizeable enough to trick me into thinking that I am in a weekend thread.

[Momori]

 

 

People outside of Cinemex for the NWH tickets.

[Menor the Destroyer]

MTC2 is up to 138k tickets sold, still with many errors but they are gradually resolving themselves out. Still missing around 30 theaters as well. Considering some adjustments, it will blow past TROS day 1. 

Edited November 29, 2021 by Menor

[YM!]

19 minutes ago, Momori said:

 

 

People outside of Cinemex for the NWH tickets.

Can’t they order online lol?

[vtec]

Cineplex are a bunch of rats, don't have any regular evening shows up in my area yet, only the higher priced showings.

[XXR & Friends]

16 minutes ago, Menor said:

MTC2 is up to 138k tickets sold, still with many errors but they are gradually resolving themselves out. Still missing around 30 theaters as well. Considering some adjustments, it will blow past TROS day 1. 

TROS 24HR was 140k MTC2, yes? NWH maybe 175k?

[Ledmonkey96]

I'm kind of suprised NWH has showings starting at 3PM, though i guess it is a long movie.

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

TROS 24HR was 140k MTC2, yes? NWH maybe 175k?

I checked back, it was about 130k unadjusted (so maybe 143k adjusted). NWH currently is in 138k with 30 theaters missing, ironically that is almost exactly the same number of theaters that I didn't have for TROS and do now, so it's very likely that it has actually well surpassed TROS by now. That said I don't want to project a 24-hr number without knowing how much the errored out shows and missing theaters will affect things. 

[Tinalera]

Can't even do some seat checks on Cineplex for NWH because I get servers are nutty. Will have to check this evening in the hopes that I can get some numbers.

 

And yea supporting Toronto stuff is that its only deluxe theatres, no reg shows. Reg shows they usually put closer to the date in my experience with Cineplex