The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

My apologies for my naiveness when it comes to tracking. I hope to be able to understand it hopefully soon to not come off the way I have been.

Hey, we all start off somewhere. 👍

 

And you picked a hell of a wildcard to start really following when it comes to Pikachu.

[Nova]

11 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

My apologies for my naiveness when it comes to tracking. I hope to be able to understand it hopefully soon to not come off the way I have been.

I think you’ve picked the wrong film to try to learn box office tracking for  I’ve been doing this for several years and my head hurts trying to predict where Pikachu may land. But I guess if you can get this one right, then you’ll be a pro  

[FlashMaster659]

7 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

Through 5 updates, Endgame sits at 3294 on Pulse. This is notable as yesterday it was at 2611 through 5 updates. Why is it notable?

 

Because on the same comparative days for IW last year, it dropped over 20% from Thursday to Friday. 

 

Obviously it will probably falter as the day goes on, but it’s a good start to the morning.

What is the pace now?

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, FlashMaster659 said:

What is the pace now?

Fandango rolling tracker is at 26k (was 27.5k end of yesterday) so ~1500 less than yesterday at the same point

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

What is the pace now?

 

13 updates 

 

10276 today VS 11249 yesterday 

 

Less than a 9% drop so far. I imagine it will expand a good amount though. The target number is 23000.

Edited April 19, 2019 by VenomXXR

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

13 updates 

 

10276 today VS 11249 yesterday 

 

Less than a 9% drop so far. I imagine it will expand a good amount though. The target number is 23000.

I actually think it could gain a bit back throughout the afternoon. The numbers yesterday until about 7pm central were pretty low (relatively speaking).

[Stewart]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

Damn, they really gonna do it:

 

God help 'em all. 

Brand new theatre, and it's not even a chain? Legit all their employs are gonna quit on the first shift. God help them on Saturday when none of the Friday or Thursday employees come back! 

 

Either way, when those tickets release I'm kinda hoping you'll see a huuuuuge surge in tickets. Sure, it'll screw up comps further on but who cares! We just want a record breaker!

[XXR vs XXR]

20 minutes ago, Menor said:

I actually think it could gain a bit back throughout the afternoon. The numbers yesterday until about 7pm central were pretty low (relatively speaking).

 

1018 @ 13:00 VS 1198 yesterday 

 

[Porthos]

20 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Brand new theatre, and it's not even a chain?

Local chain.  Cinema West has three others theaters in the region (two in Folsom and one in Woodland) and twelve more elsewhere in California and Idaho.

 

Pretty good rep here as well. 

 

20 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Sure, it'll screw up comps further on but who cares! We just want a record breaker!

That's what the exact comp is for.

Edited April 19, 2019 by Porthos

[Menor the Destroyer]

16 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

1018 @ 13:00 VS 1198 yesterday 

 

Lol never mind. Still it's holding pretty decently for Good Friday.

[Stewart]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Local chain.  Cinema West has three others theaters in the region (two in Folsom and one in Woodland) and twelve more elsewhere in California and Idaho.

 

Pretty good rep here as well. 

Ah okay, that at least is good somewhat then. Would hate if it was a brand new independent theatre and their first ever movie is likely to be one of the busiest this decade.

 

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

That's what the exact comp is for.

Not what I meant  

 

I meant in the future, you might have the problem that the day the new theatre opens will end up being unusually large, thus ruining comps to it in the future since I'd assume this new theatre would, in the future, open tickets at the same time as everyone else and not 5 days before opening!

[Legion Again]

The new long-range tracking from BOP is here, and we can add it to the list of sites that Endgame broke 😛 

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-tracking-men-in-black-international-shaft-avengers-endgame-updated-tracking/

[XXR vs XXR]

9 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

The new long-range tracking from BOP is here, and we can add it to the list of sites that Endgame broke 😛 

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-tracking-men-in-black-international-shaft-avengers-endgame-updated-tracking/

 

Never seen that before lol 

[Stewart]

13 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

The new long-range tracking from BOP is here, and we can add it to the list of sites that Endgame broke 😛 

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-tracking-men-in-black-international-shaft-avengers-endgame-updated-tracking/

@CJohn Looks like Shawn is officially on board the $300m train!

[terrestrial]

Out of the BOPro link

 

Quote

8-Week Tracking

Release Date	Title	3-Day Wide Release Tracking	% Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Forecast	% Chg from Last Week	Estimated Location Count	Distributor
4/26/2019	Avengers: Endgame	$270,000,000 – $300,000,000+	n/a	$660,000,000 – $730,000,000+	n/a	4,400	Disney / Marvel
5/3/2019	The Intruder	$16,000,000	10%	$44,000,000	10%	2,500	Sony / Columbia
5/3/2019	Long Shot	$12,500,000		$50,000,000		2,300	Lionsgate / Summit
5/3/2019	Uglydolls	$13,500,000	4%	$48,000,000	9%	2,700	STX
5/10/2019	The Hustle	$14,500,000	21%	$41,000,000	21%	–	Mirror Films / MGM
5/10/2019	Pokemon: Detective Pikachu	$90,000,000		$250,000,000		–	Warner Bros.
5/10/2019	Poms	$11,000,000	-12%	$40,000,000	-11%	–	STX
5/17/2019	A Dog’s Journey	$11,000,000		$39,500,000		–	Sony / Columbia
5/17/2019	John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum	$35,000,000		$100,000,000		–	Lionsgate / Summit
5/17/2019	The Sun Is Also a Star	$12,000,000		$36,000,000		–	Warner Bros.
5/24/2019	Ad Astra	n/a		n/a		–	Fox
5/24/2019	Aladdin	$80,000,000	-6%	$220,000,000	-6%	–	Disney
5/24/2019	Booksmart	n/a		n/a		–	Annapurna Pictures
5/24/2019	BrightBurn	n/a		n/a		–	Sony / Columbia
5/31/2019	Godzilla: King of the Monsters	$54,000,000	13%	$144,000,000	11%	–	Warner Bros.
5/31/2019	Ma	$24,000,000		$63,000,000		–	Universal
5/31/2019	Rocketman	$37,000,000		$165,000,000		–	Paramount
6/7/2019	Dark Phoenix	$47,000,000		$113,000,000		–	Fox
6/7/2019	Late Night	n/a		n/a			Amazon Studios
6/7/2019	The Secret Life of Pets 2	$80,000,000		$263,000,000		–	Universal
6/14/2019	Men In Black International	$39,000,000	NEW	$107,000,000	NEW	–	Sony / Columbia
6/14/2019	Shaft (2019)	$31,000,000	NEW	$100,000,000	NEW	–	Warner Bros.

Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.

 

[IceFire9yt]

Something tells me their prediction will be accurate.

 

(though not precise)

 

[terrestrial]

Just realised: both new ones have an Avenger / ~ founder in it

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, cdsacken said:

She's American with a British accent. It's quite funny. It's a mix but whenever she scolds me it's pure British. 

If there was an aww reaction.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, feasby007 said:

I meant in the future, you might have the problem that the day the new theatre opens will end up being unusually large, thus ruining comps to it in the future since I'd assume this new theatre would, in the future, open tickets at the same time as everyone else and not 5 days before opening!

There's ways to minimize that, if I cared enough. But since it's only affecting one day of EG's sales, which is already a huge outlier, I doubt it'll matter all the much going forward. 

[Legion Again]

12 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Just realised: both new ones have an Avenger / ~ founder in it

Civil War: Asgard vs Shield