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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, stfletch said:

So the way AKValley's Fandango Pulse tracker so consistently has AIW capping out around 3000 for the top Avengers: Endgame number made me (and some others here @Porthos @VenomXXR @Menor @Stewart) think there is some kind of cap and that certainly seems to be the case. Here is the TOTAL number of units given each hour for all movies for this week so far...

 

Look how often it is capping out at either 3000, or 4000, no way that is random chance. Clearly the number of units sold would actually have been way above those number in some instances. There are a few hours where it does go above 4000, so I'm betting that (for some reason), each hour either caps out at 3,000, 4000, or 5,000. If its below that we see the actual number, if it's above the cap for the hour we are missing some units.

 

Of course this means that Endgame has been doing even better in the last couple of days than we thought. :ohmygod:

 

EDIT: Note to say that since I probably wasn't clear, I'm sure it's Fandango Pulse itself that is capping out, rather than AKValley's scraper.

 

22/04/19 00:00 2738
22/04/19 01:00 1105
22/04/19 02:00 720
22/04/19 03:00 431
22/04/19 04:00 295
22/04/19 05:00 465
22/04/19 06:00 1363
22/04/19 07:00 2905
22/04/19 08:00 3843
22/04/19 09:00 3814
22/04/19 10:00 2886
22/04/19 11:00 3912
22/04/19 12:00 3997
22/04/19 13:00 4010
22/04/19 14:00 4080
22/04/19 15:00 3867
22/04/19 16:00 4119
22/04/19 17:00 3787
22/04/19 18:00 4000
22/04/19 19:00 4000
22/04/19 20:00 4000
22/04/19 21:00 4052
22/04/19 22:00 4254
22/04/19 23:00 4230
23/04/19 00:00 4072
23/04/19 01:00 2618
23/04/19 02:00 1397
23/04/19 03:00 796
23/04/19 04:00 696
23/04/19 05:00 1182
23/04/19 06:00 2638
23/04/19 07:00 2800
23/04/19 08:00 1862
23/04/19 09:00 3931
23/04/19 10:00 3839
23/04/19 11:00 4000
23/04/19 12:00 3000
23/04/19 13:00 4000
23/04/19 14:00 4000
23/04/19 15:00 3000
23/04/19 16:00 3000
23/04/19 17:00 4000
23/04/19 18:00 4000
23/04/19 19:00 3000
23/04/19 20:00 4000
23/04/19 21:00 4000
23/04/19 22:00 3000
23/04/19 23:00 4360
24/04/19 00:00 4286
24/04/19 01:00 3452
24/04/19 02:00 1946
24/04/19 03:00 1153
24/04/19 04:00 1010
24/04/19 05:00 1798
24/04/19 06:00 3493
24/04/19 07:00 3826
24/04/19 08:00 3644
24/04/19 09:00 3999
24/04/19 10:00 4000
24/04/19 11:00 4000
24/04/19 12:00 4000
24/04/19 13:00 4000
24/04/19 14:00 4000
24/04/19 15:00 3000
24/04/19 16:00 4000
24/04/19 17:00 4000
24/04/19 18:00 4000
24/04/19 19:00 4000
24/04/19 20:00 4000
24/04/19 21:00 4000
24/04/19 22:00 4000
24/04/19 23:00 4105
25/04/19 00:00 4399
25/04/19 01:00 3118
25/04/19 02:00 2773
25/04/19 03:00 1769
25/04/19 04:00 1127
25/04/19 05:00 2704
25/04/19 06:00 3687
25/04/19 07:00 2718
25/04/19 08:00 3983
25/04/19 09:00 4000
25/04/19 10:00 4000
25/04/19 11:00 4000
25/04/19 12:00 4000
25/04/19 13:00 4000
25/04/19 14:00 4000
25/04/19 15:00 4000
25/04/19 16:00 3000
25/04/19 17:00 4000
25/04/19 18:00 4000
25/04/19 19:00 4000
25/04/19 20:00 3000

 

Ok it definitely is capped, but confused as to why the cap would vary between 3 and 4k so arbitrarily. Huh. 

 

Also thank you for all the analysis you've done in this run, it's been some of the highest quality stuff I've seen on this site.

Edited by Menor
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stfletch Straight-to-DVD

stfletch

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Menor said:

Ok it definitely is capped, but confused as to why the cap would vary between 3 and 4k so arbitrarily. Huh. 

 

Also thank you for all the analysis you've done in this run, it's been some of the highest quality stuff I've seen on this site.

Thanks! My job is basically financial analysis so it's nice to be also to use those skills on something I enjoy.

 

And yeah, I'm sure there is a reason for the arbitrarily changing cap, but I can't figure out what it is yet.

Edited by stfletch
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Cooper Legion Global Phenomenon

Cooper Legion

Posted
Posted
On 4/24/2019 at 8:12 PM, Thanos Legion said:

 

17:00 Pacific 4/24/19 (End of release week Wed) 

  


1	82.6%	Avengers: Endgame
2	3.1%	The Curse of La Llorona  (17.8 adj) 
3	2.9%	Captain Marvel  (16.7% adj)
4	2.1%	Shazam!          (12.1% adj) 
5	1.3%	Breakthrough     (7.5% adj)

 

KA. BOOM.    

 

Essentially 5 out of every 6 tickets, and that 1.3% 5th place is the lowest I’ve ever seen.    

 

CM/S at 138%.   

 

I won’t be able to post this tomorrow until a few hours after the final update since I’ll be busy doing whatever it takes.  

 

Will edit adjusteds in soon.

Huh, nobody MT scooped me. Almost like there were better things to do in theaters and better threads tonight.    

 

This has has become a soothing part of my daily routine, and I currently plan to continue indefinitely, though Endgame PS run is over.   

 

17:00 4/25/19 (End of preview Thurs) 

1	93.2%	Avengers: Endgame
2	1.5%	Captain Marvel  (22.1 adj)
3	1%	The Curse of La Llorona (14.7 adj) 
4	0.8%	Dumbo         (11.8 adj)
5	0.8%	Breakthrough  (11.8 adj)

 

Okay, so the CM/S ratio today is... undefined. We’ll now discontinue that feature. CM will be a comfy #1 in today’s dailies I think.   

 

14/15 tickets for Endgame seems ‘aight, wondering where Sat ends.

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)

Well, you know the old saying:  Time waits for gnomon.

 

As such, time for Pokemon update:

 

====

 

Detective Pikachu Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

75

8133

8648

5.96%

 

Total Shows Removed Since Sun:          3*

Total Seats Removed Since Sun:        522

Total Seats Sold Since Thr:                108

*NOTE:  The brand new theater in town originally had six showings listed but then shifted to three a couple of days later.  I suspect they put them up early in error.  Regardless they are not for sale and thus removed from this tracking

 

I don't have any good comps like Incredibles 2, so these will have to do.  Use with caution:

 

.3068x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 14 days before release.           [JW2 had 22 days of pre-sales while Pika Pika has 29]

.2884x as many tickets sold as Crimes of Grindelwald 14 days before release. [FB2 had 30 days of pre-sales while Pika Pika has 29]

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

JW2 (T-14)             353  tickets sold in that time period [0 sellouts/97 showings     |   8705/10113 seats left  | 13.92% sold]

Pika (JW adj)* (T-14)     91  tickets sold in that time period [0 sellouts/75 showings     |    7169/7601 seats left   |  5.68% sold]

FB2 (T-14)              174 tickets sold in that time period [0 sellouts/94 showings     |  11789/13377 seats left | 11.87% sold] 

Pika (FBadj)** (T-14)   102 tickets sold in that time period [0 sellouts/75 showings      |    7656/8114 seats left  |  5.64% sold]    

*  Pika (JW adj) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom

**Pika (FB adj) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Crimes of Grindelwald

 

====

 

Next Update: Sun Night (4/28).

 

Edited by Porthos
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cdsacken Summer Tentpole

cdsacken

Posted
Posted

Curious to see if Pika picks up a lot next week. Also I could easily see s lot of people using one of their amc weekly tickets on it. 

 

Feels like the range for opening weekend is insanely wide. 50-90. I'll go somewhat conservative 65 for now.

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Curious to see if Pika picks up a lot next week. Also I could easily see s lot of people using one of their amc weekly tickets on it. 

 

Feels like the range for opening weekend is insanely wide. 50-90. I'll go somewhat conservative 65 for now.

IF it was going to break out, I'd expect some sort of boost this coming Sun night.  Maybe not a major one, but at least a noticeable one.

 

But with Endgame beasting it up all over the place, I won't be surprised one jot if Pika Pika doesn't start to see some sort of bump until way into next week.

 

Just hard to really draw many conclusions with the 800 pound gorilla throwing its weight around.

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EarlyDeadlinePredictions Box Office Gold

EarlyDeadlinePredictions

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, Porthos said:

Just made this post in the Weekend Thread, but I think it's important to be here as well.  Sorry not sorry for the xpost. :)

 

====

 

Throwing out the exact theater comp since EG is playing in far more theaters than IW.  Also throwing out DP2 as that didn't have 3D and it over-performed locally.  And CM over-performed here locally as well, though not to the degree that DP2 did.

 

So, three possible worlds:

 

World One (BP/IW comp):                               66.21m 

World Two (Solo/Venom/JW2/AM2 comps):   53.95m

World Three (mid-point of previous comps):  60.08m

 

Let's go with 60.08m, FINAL ANSWER.

 

Probably wrong.  Actually almost certainly wrong as projections break down at the extreme.  But that's the number I'll be happy with if I see it when it comes to comps.  

 

And if I see 55m or so, then I know that IW and BP really need to be nuked for future comps, as they over-predicted CM as well, when everything else was much close.

 

Find out soon enuf. :)

The system works.

 

 

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HouseOfTheSun Box Office Gold

HouseOfTheSun

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Porthos said:

Well, you know the old saying:  Time waits for gnomon.

 

As such, time for Pokemon update:

 

====

 

Detective Pikachu Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-18 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

75

8133

8648

5.96%

 

Total Shows Removed Since Sun:          3*

Total Seats Removed Since Sun:        522

Total Seats Sold Since Thr:                108

*NOTE:  The brand new theater in town originally had six showings listed but then shifted to three a couple of days later.  I suspect they put them up early in error.  Regardless they are not for sale and thus removed from this tracking

 

I don't have any good comps like Incredibles 2, so these will have to do.  Use with caution:

 

.3068x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 14 days before release.           [JW2 had 22 days of pre-sales while Pika Pika has 29]

.2884x as many tickets sold as Crimes of Grindelwald 14 days before release. [FB2 had 30 days of pre-sales while Pika Pika has 29]

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

JW2 (T-14)             353  tickets sold in that time period [0 sellouts/97 showings     |   8705/10113 seats left  | 13.92% sold]

Pika (JW adj)* (T-14)     91  tickets sold in that time period [0 sellouts/75 showings     |    7169/7601 seats left   |  5.68% sold]

FB2 (T-14)              174 tickets sold in that time period [0 sellouts/94 showings     |  11789/13377 seats left | 11.87% sold] 

Pika (FBadj)** (T-14)   102 tickets sold in that time period [0 sellouts/75 showings      |    7656/8114 seats left  |  5.64% sold]    

*  Pika (JW adj) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom

**Pika (FB adj) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Crimes of Grindelwald

 

====

 

Next Update: Sun Night (4/28).

 

All hail @Porthos

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Birdo Mandingo Cult Classic

Birdo Mandingo

Posted
Posted
19 hours ago, Birdo Mandingo said:

SE Georgia(USA) 12 Screen Cinema

 

2D Recliner Seats

6:00- 130/130 (SOLD OUT)
6:15- 68/68 (SOLD OUT)
6:30- 100/100 (SOLD OUT)
6:45- 55/55  (SOLD OUT)
7:30- 130/130 (SOLD OUT)
8:00- 86/86 (SOLD OUT)
9:30- 62/62 (SOLD OUT)
10:00- 130/130 (SOLD OUT) 
10:15- 68/68 (SOLD OUT)
10:30- 100/100 (SOLD OUT)
10:45- 55/55 (SOLD OUT)

 

GTX (Main Screen)
5:00 270/270 (SOLD OUT)
9:00 270/270 (SOLD OUT)

 

2D Non-Recliner
7:00 120/120 (SOLD OUT)
7:30 90/90 (SOLD OUT)
11:00 120/120 (SOLD OUT)

 

 

HOLY SH!T. Gonna be a lot of sad walkups. EVERYTHING IS SOLD OUT.

 

Last update. My showing at this theater starts in 1:55, minutes and I have to drive 40 min to get there wish me luck!

Hey all, at work so cant give show by show breakdown for Friday, but at the same theater for Friday they have 29 showings (2 showings in 3d, as there was no 3D previews)

 

1st showing is at 11am, last at 11pm.

 

EVERYTHING IS SOLD OUT BUT 2 SEATS FRONT ROW FOR 12:30PM 3D SHOWING.

 

Nuts.

 

Walkups have no hope here. Lucky for them we also have 2 AMCs in town that don't do reserve seating, and have seats for most times, so they can buy those and show up early and still get a good seat. 

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