The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Mulder]

Just now, Porthos said:

It still outsold Solo locally on T-2.  (236 v 277)

 

...

 

Seriously.  WHY do I do this to myself?  

 

==

 

It is a little muted.  But it might just be running at a percentage of JW2 as well.  The idea that it might be headed for a 70m OW sounds logical.  

 

I will say it ain't exploding.  But that's also why I roped in the Venom and AM2 comp to show what they did 2 days from release.  Thinking the target number for Pika tomo is around 375 to 400 adj tickets sold tomorrow.   If it doesn't hit that, I might have to reassess or look at the pattern a bit more closely to see what is going on. 

Sounds good to me. 70 is about what I'm expecting as well right now. What would you say are your thoughts on KoTM's pre-pre sales?

[Perfundle]

Detective Pikachu San Gabriel Valley (10 theaters), 2 days to opening night

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats sold	Seats Left	Total Seats	Percent Sold
TOTALS	0	81	4122	9310	13432	30.69%

 

3 showings added

413 seats added

598 seats sold

 

Date				4/10	4/11	4/12	4/13
Tickets Sold				534	198	110	58
Date	4/14	4/15	4/16	4/17	4/18	4/19	4/20
Tickets Sold	28	45	59	63	36	33	28
Date	4/21	4/22	4/23	4/24	4/25	4/26	4/27
Tickets Sold	35	72	57	44	92	64	79
Date	4/28	4/29	4/30	5/1	5/2	5/3	5/4
Tickets Sold	91	126	85	139	255	232	241
Date	5/5	5/6	5/7
Tickets Sold	248	472	598

 

Aladdin San Gabriel Valley (10 theaters), 9th day of presales, 16 days to opening night

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats sold	Seats Left	Total Seats	Percent Sold
TOTALS	0	62	1551	11445	12996	11.93%

 

71 seats sold

 

Date		4/30	4/31	5/1	5/2	5/3	5/4
Tickets Sold		677	208	149	131	87	56
Date	5/5	5/6	5/7
Tickets Sold	65	107	71

 

1.14x Detective Pikachu at T-16 days of presales [Detective Pikachu has 29 days of presales compared to Aladdin's 24]

 

[Eric Duncan]

Y'all are annoying me, so here are some #s

 

Fandango App

Monday

Tues

Wed

Thursday

Blockers

504

1,106

2,931

I Feel Pretty

871

1,610

4,423

Life Of The Party

587

1,310

3,010

Book Club

836

1,599

3,283

Incredibles 2

20,872

23,430

39,337

Antman & The Wasp

6,613

5,990

11,108

Hotel Transylvania 3

1,753

2,674

6,605

14,754

Christopher Robin	1,560	2,442	5,355	11,509
The Spy Who Dumped Me	234	542	1,561	4,222

BlackkKlansman

432

682

1,934

5,017

A Simple Favor	564	2,126	4,410	10,381
White Boy Rick	136	567	1,458	4,587

First Man

654

909

3,610

7,586

Nobody's Fool	436	900	1,719	4,437
The Grinch	3,580	4,860	10,092	17,046

Widows

310

868

2,219

4,179

The Mule	791	1,779	3,882	6,235
Spider-Verse	3,715	5,208	9,858	19,972

Bumblebee

1,553

1,817

3,157

Second Act	353	611	1,204
Marwen	299	403	658

Upside

394

1,431

3,669

8,602

Lego Movie 2

2,552

4,130

8,601

13,320

How to Train Your Dragon 3

3,724

6,674

12,935

21,313

Dumbo

3,069

4,624

9,218

16,140

Little

673

1,098

2,450

5,760

The Hustle	485	1,012
Pokemon Detective Pikachu	5,061	7,653
Poms	198	474
Tolkien	165	394

 

Hustle comps:

91% of Blockers (18.8M)

63% of I Feel Pretty (10.1M)

77% of Life of the Party (13.8M)

187% of Spy Who Dumped Me (22.6M)

48% of A Simple Favor (7.6M)

112% of Nobody's Fool (15.4M)

166% of Second Act (10.7M)

92% of Little (14.2M)

 

Low teens still looks good. Not amazing, but could have been worse.

 

Pikachu comps:

33% of Incredibles 2 (59.7M)

128% of Ant-Man 2 (96.8M)

286% of Hotel Transylvania 3 (126.1M)

313% of Christopher Robin (77M)

157% of The Grinch (106.4M)

147% of Spider-Verse (52M)

421% of Bumblebee (91.2M)

185% of Lego Movie 2 (63.2M)

115% of Dragon 3 (63.1M)

165% of Dumbo (76.1M)

 

Some slight alterations, but the range seems about 60-75M (minus some outliers). Whether or not that's good or bad is up to you. There's also arguably a 90-105M range, so...pick the one you like, I dunno.

 

Poms comps:

29% of I Feel Pretty (4.7M)

36% of Life of the Party (6.5M)

30% of Book Club (4M)

27% of The Mule (4.7M)

77% of Second Act (5M)

118% of Marwen (2.8M)

33% of The Upside (6.7M)

 

This feels destined to hit single digits at this point.

 

Tolkien comps:

57% of BlacKkKlansman (6.2M)

69% of White Boy Rick (6.1M)

43% of First Man (6.9M)

45% of Widows (5.5M)

 

So initially comps had it at 4M, but now it's closer to 6M. A sign of good things to come? Well, with those mediocre reviews, probably not.

[Porthos]

26 minutes ago, Mulder said:

What would you say are your thoughts on KoTM's pre-pre sales?

I'll let you know tomorrow night when I can do a full like-for-like local comp with FB2.

 

(also might dig into the thread and see if there were any pre pre-sale Fandango numbers that I didn't catch on a quick scan)

Edited May 8, 2019 by Porthos

[Mulder]

CoolEric's DP numbers make me feel more confident in my 70+ prediction for DP's OW.

[Mulder]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I'll let you know tomorrow night when I can do a full like-for-like local comp with FB2.

 

(also might dig into the thread and see if there were any pre pre-sale Fandango numbers that I didn't catch on a quick scan)

Got it sounds good, thanks! I'm trying to not get too excited since it could just be a fluke but...it's hard not to. 😄

[Perfundle]

4 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

128% of Ant-Man 2 (96.8M)

Well this one's completely out of whack. How in the world did Ant Man 2 drop on Tuesday?

[Eric Duncan]

btw I'm not gonna do any upcoming movies until at least Thursday (even then that's a maybe). With four movies already on my plate for this week, I've already got a lot to talk about.

 

So @Mulder don't pester me for those Gojira numbers

 

Though you can take a look right here

Edited May 8, 2019 by CoolEric258

[Tentatek]

I’m going with 100 + 💃

[Nova]

9 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

 

Pikachu comps:

33% of Incredibles 2 (59.7M)

128% of Ant-Man 2 (96.8M)

286% of Hotel Transylvania 3 (126.1M)

313% of Christopher Robin (77M)

157% of The Grinch (106.4M)

147% of Spider-Verse (52M)

421% of Bumblebee (91.2M)

185% of Lego Movie 2 (63.2M)

115% of Dragon 3 (63.1M)

165% of Dumbo (76.1M)

 

Some slight alterations, but the range seems about 60-75M (minus some outliers). Whether or not that's good or bad is up to you. There's also arguably a 90-105M range, so...pick the one you like, I dunno.

 

 

 

JK (so people don't actually think I'm being serious) 

[dakus]

12 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Pikachu comps:

33% of Incredibles 2 (59.7M)

128% of Ant-Man 2 (96.8M)

286% of Hotel Transylvania 3 (126.1M)

313% of Christopher Robin (77M)

157% of The Grinch (106.4M)

147% of Spider-Verse (52M)

421% of Bumblebee (91.2M)

185% of Lego Movie 2 (63.2M)

115% of Dragon 3 (63.1M)

165% of Dumbo (76.1M)

 

IMO, Dumbo and Christopher Robin feel like the best comps out of the bunch. They're both live-action PG movies of known properties with CGI characters, which fits Pikachu. Both of those peg it around the 75-80 range. Lowering the floor due to possible fandom rush (Pokemon fans) would be around 70-80M. I can vibe with that.

Edited May 8, 2019 by dakus

[Perfundle]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

JW2           551 tickets sold [0 sellouts/145 showings | 10171/13595 seats left | 25.19% sold]

AM2          268 tickets sold [0 sellouts/111 showings |  8605/10896 seats left  | 21.03% sold]

Pika (JW)    277 tickets sold [0 sellouts/101 showings |  6338/7883 seats left    | 19.0% sold]

Venom      n/a  tickets sold [0 sellouts/117 showings | 10486/12744 seats left | 17.72% sold]

FB2           396 tickets sold [0 sellouts/124 showings | 11831/15116 seats left | 21.73% sold] 

Pika (FBj)   291 tickets sold [0 sellouts/101 showings |  6938/8540 seats left    | 18.76% sold]

Pika (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom and Ant-Man and the Wasp.

Pika (FB) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Crimes of Grindelwald and Venom

Looking at all those 0's, how many of those 4 actually sold out showings on opening night? Right now none of my showings are coming close to doing that, with the two closest at 82%.

 

And on that subject, how do you count seats on Thursday? Do you check the seats right before the first showing?

[Mulder]

3 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

btw I'm not gonna do any upcoming movies until at least Thursday (even then that's a maybe). With four movies already on my plate for this week, I've already got a lot to talk about.

 

So @Mulder don't pester me for those Gojira numbers

 

Though you can take a look right here

No problem I'll be counting them all myself anyways 

[Porthos]

23 minutes ago, Perfundle said:

Looking at all those 0's, how many of those 4 actually sold out showings on opening night? Right now none of my showings are coming close to doing that, with the two closest at 82%.

 

And on that subject, how do you count seats on Thursday? Do you check the seats right before the first showing?

Out of those comps, JW2 had 1 'adjusted' sellout (one showing was at five seats).  Nothing else had any sellouts.

 

As for when I check, usually I start my check so I finish my check about a half an hour or so before first MAIN showings of the night (if there is anything like Fan Events or Double Features, I check those just before they start and then continue with the rest of the check).  Thus I work backward from there to figure out when to start my checks (since I check so many showings, it takes me a while to do).

 

In this case though, I'll probably try to run up as close to 4pm as possible, because of the early showtimes.  It's another reason I don't like these 4pm starts, it messes with my comps for movies that started later in the night.

 

I make a note in my final report of the time period I checked, like so:

 

====

Avengers: Endgame Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [4:30pm - 5:30pm]

(sellouts for THIS REPORT ONLY includes ALL theaters with six or fewer seats left)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	158	347	3718	30373	87.76%

====

 

So in this case, since it was taking me an hour to do the count, I did it from 4:30 to 5:30.  I imagine the Pikachu count will take me about thirty minutes or so, so it will probably say [3:30pm to 4:00pm]

 

As for the adjusted sellout thing, that's just my personal standard.  Many folks on this board use the "Tele Standard" which is 'front row of fewer seats left'

 

I suspect it probably won't matter for PIkachu though, as you note.

 

 

 

 

[Cappoedameron]

51 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Y'all are annoying me, so here are some #s

 

Fandango App

Monday

Tues

Wed

Thursday

Blockers

504

1,106

2,931

I Feel Pretty

871

1,610

4,423

Life Of The Party

587

1,310

3,010

Book Club

836

1,599

3,283

Incredibles 2

20,872

23,430

39,337

Antman & The Wasp

6,613

5,990

11,108

Hotel Transylvania 3

1,753

2,674

6,605

14,754

Christopher Robin	1,560	2,442	5,355	11,509
The Spy Who Dumped Me	234	542	1,561	4,222

BlackkKlansman

432

682

1,934

5,017

A Simple Favor	564	2,126	4,410	10,381
White Boy Rick	136	567	1,458	4,587

First Man

654

909

3,610

7,586

Nobody's Fool	436	900	1,719	4,437
The Grinch	3,580	4,860	10,092	17,046

Widows

310

868

2,219

4,179

The Mule	791	1,779	3,882	6,235
Spider-Verse	3,715	5,208	9,858	19,972

Bumblebee

1,553

1,817

3,157

Second Act	353	611	1,204
Marwen	299	403	658

Upside

394

1,431

3,669

8,602

Lego Movie 2

2,552

4,130

8,601

13,320

How to Train Your Dragon 3

3,724

6,674

12,935

21,313

Dumbo

3,069

4,624

9,218

16,140

Little

673

1,098

2,450

5,760

The Hustle	485	1,012
Pokemon Detective Pikachu	5,061	7,653
Poms	198	474
Tolkien	165	394

 

Pikachu comps:

33% of Incredibles 2 (59.7M)

128% of Ant-Man 2 (96.8M)

286% of Hotel Transylvania 3 (126.1M)

313% of Christopher Robin (77M)

157% of The Grinch (106.4M)

147% of Spider-Verse (52M)

421% of Bumblebee (91.2M)

185% of Lego Movie 2 (63.2M)

115% of Dragon 3 (63.1M)

165% of Dumbo (76.1M)

 

Some slight alterations, but the range seems about 60-75M (minus some outliers). Whether or not that's good or bad is up to you. There's also arguably a 90-105M range, so...pick the one you like, I dunno.

 

 

 

 

 

I'm kidding of course. Let's go 75M/80M!

Edited May 8, 2019 by Cappoedameron

[Cappoedameron]

2 hours ago, Biggestgeekever said:

I'm not sensing the same deflation of hype, and I feel like a combination of thinking it'd do 100+ and Endgame is coloring ya'lls perceptions just a bit. The DP videos Ryan Reynolds has put on his youtube channels have been doing phenomenally well so there's certainly plenty of online hype for it, and Fandango sales have seem a big uptick today that will make it look better with the comps used. I noticed the trades are looking to go with $50M, which I'm not surprised by; the tracking services they use often rely on precedent, and keep in mind the biggest videogame opener is still the first Tomb Raider at $47M.

 

We'll see how things look tomorrow, but I'm firmly thinking $75M OW and would probably bet on $80M. 

Seriously people are low-balling this movie so hard it's crazy, the hype is ridiculous. All of the videos put out have had insane positive reactions. They each have been top trending on YT, sometimes the #1 trend. The social media presence has not gone away. Sonic revived it big time. Todays "leak" video skyrocketed social media presence. The adorable "leak" has become the source of multiple meme's and so many people are gushing at how adorable it is and praising the marketing department.

 

Also I know Endgame vs Pika comparison is bad and I'm not going to do anything but point out the facts. Both put out videos today, Endgames amazing TV spot features an incredible iconic moment from the film that has massive spoilers and Pikachu's "leak" from a fake account mind you destroyed it to put it lightly.

 

I'm with you man, I'm firmly on the 75M OW. I would like more but anything in the 70/80M range is an impressive start. Could I be wrong? Absolutely but the sales we're seeing now and massive social media presence suggest something much bigger then 50/60M.

Edited May 8, 2019 by Cappoedameron

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

Seriously people are low-balling this movie so hard it's crazy, the hype is ridiculous. All of the videos put out have had insane positive reactions. They each have been top trending on YT, sometimes the #1 trend. The social media presence has not gone away. Sonic revived it big time. Todays "leak" video skyrocketed social media presence. The adorable "leak" has become the source of multiple meme's and so many people are gushing at how adorable Pikachu is.

 

Also I know Endgame vs Pika comparison is bad and I'm not going to do anything but point out the facts. Both put out videos today, Endgames amazing TV spot features an incredible iconic moment from the film that has massive spoilers and Pikachu's "leak" from a fake account mind you destroyed it.

 

I'm with you man, I'm firmly on the 75M OW. I would like more but anything in the 70/80M range is an impressive start. Could I be wrong? Absolutely but the sales we're seeing now and massive social media presence suggest something much bigger then 50/60M.

lowbolling ? what ? you are new to the forum arent you ? what lowball? do you know how many 1 billion + gross i have hear .......

also your comparions about tv spots are fantastic .............

Edited May 8, 2019 by john2000

[Cappoedameron]

2 minutes ago, john2000 said:

lowbolling ? what ? you are new to the forum arent you ? what lowball? do you know how many 1 billion + gross i have hear .......

also your comparions about tv spots is fantastic .............

Not people on here, this is in general and in the trades. 

[john2000]

Just now, Cappoedameron said:

Not people on here, this is in general and in the trades. 

not people in here ? are you sure ? ............................. also if true a 75-80 ow would be good-great  something reasonable

[Cappoedameron]

8 minutes ago, john2000 said:

not people in here ? are you sure ? ............................. also if true a 75-80 ow would be good-great  something reasonable

I think anything in the 70/80 OW is impressive.