The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Cappoedameron]

11 minutes ago, dakus said:

So, once again, the consensus is ‘who the fuck knows’. 

Everyone is split. It can go anywhere from 55 all the way to 80. Nobody knows lol.

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

The Tuesday number when I checked an hour ago was looked at 7000, which is lower than expected/hoped for imho.

Maybe I don't use Fandango pulse enough but I thought 7,000+ was the target for it today given that yesterday it was at 5,000. In terms of checking other films given the older data, most films dont usually increase by a substantial amount from Monday-Tuesday. And by a substantial amount, I mean you dont see them increase by 5,000+.

Edited May 8, 2019 by Nova

[Tinalera]

Endgame opening weekend i was interested in how boffo the numbers would be. For pika i am just intrigued which way numbers will go. Its got such a potential range and im legit curious what final number will be. Fascinating

[keysersoze123]

Pikachu is another movie BOT has grossly over predicted. Some of the threads are absolutely ridiculous. I think it will do well, somewhere between 150-200 domestic and 400-500m OS(including 100m in china) and that is solid for this film.

[YM!]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

Maybe I don't use Fandango pulse enough but I thought 7,000+ was the target for it today given that yesterday it was at 5,000. In terms of checking other films given the older data, most films dont usually increase by a substantial amount from Monday-Tuesday. And by a substantial amount, I mean you dont see them increase by 5,000+.

That’s fair, I’m very green on Fandango tracking.

[Mulder]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

Pikachu is another movie BOT has grossly over predicted. Some of the threads are absolutely ridiculous. I think it will do well, somewhere between 150-200 domestic and 400-500m OS(including 100m in china) and that is solid for this film.

I think we all acknowledged that at this point. @The predictions for Pikachu being too high pre-release

[Cappoedameron]

At least when it comes to Pikachu, at least we'll know how to track the sequel. Cause it literally seems everyone is split on Pikachu lol. 

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Pikachu is another movie BOT has grossly over predicted. Some of the threads are absolutely ridiculous. I think it will do well, somewhere between 150-200 domestic and 400-500m OS(including 100m in china) and that is solid for this film.

It was mainly due to the first trailer, before the first trailer the majority was thinking Angry Birds numbers as well as us trusting test screenings and then increased our predictions by a lot sort of like how we did Venom. I think in hindsight, the warning sign was the drop off from the first trailer to the second trailer and no one was expecting Endgame to be that big.

Edited May 8, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord

[Nova]

Just now, YourMother the Edgelord said:

That’s fair, I’m very green on Fandango tracking.

Yea. I admit I dont use it as much. I usually just go by what posters on here use as comps ie the Fandango chart that gets posted by @CoolEric258 So I may not looking at the numbers correctly lol 

[cax16]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Pikachu is another movie BOT has grossly over predicted. Some of the threads are absolutely ridiculous. I think it will do well, somewhere between 150-200 domestic and 400-500m OS(including 100m in china) and that is solid for this film.

550-700m would be a great start to the franchise imo. 

[Cappoedameron]

1 minute ago, cax16 said:

550-700m would be a great start to the franchise imo. 

Iron Man was in the 500's so it could be. I hope for higher though.

[keysersoze123]

Just now, cax16 said:

550-700m would be a great start to the franchise imo. 

I agree. It is well marketed and kid friendly. China PS looks promising. It did not breakout in Japan where Pokemon movies have done great but hollywood adaptations have never done great. They prefer their own local movies of these properties. But I have a feeling it should do good almost everywhere enough to make decent bank OS.

[Old Spice]

37 minutes ago, andrewgr said:

So it's sold an average of 12 tickets per theater?  Do you have any idea how other films have done with presales so we have something to compare that to?  Less than 48 hours before showings start, that per theater average seems low to me, but I wouldn't presume to say that I know what is normal for your area.

Andrew, it's not all the theaters in the Salt Lake urban area that I track, just one theater on the east side of the valley, a Cinemark luxury not far from the U of Utah. It's pretty representative, though. Unfortunately, I haven't been tracking for very long, so I don't have any comps, but I will start keeping a record for future comparisons.

 

I would guesstimate it's at least 15-20% ahead of Shazam! at the same point in time.

[HouseOfTheSun]

1 minute ago, Cappoedameron said:

Iron Man was in the 500's so it could be. I hope for higher though.

11 years ago, with no China, and quite literally no meaningful fanbase. 

[HouseOfTheSun]

Just now, A Star is Orm said:

Andrew, it's not all the theaters in the Salt Lake urban area that I track, just one theater on the east side of the valley, a Cinemark luxury not far from the U of Utah. It's pretty representative, though. Unfortunately, I haven't been tracking for very long, so I don't have any comps, but I will start keeping a record for future comparisons.

 

I would guesstimate it's at least 15-20% ahead of Shazam! at the same point in time.

60-65m I will stick with. It’s looking around the same as Shazam in the theaters around me but selling more at the same point in time now 

[YM!]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

I agree. It is well marketed and kid friendly. China PS looks promising. It did not breakout in Japan where Pokemon movies have done great but hollywood adaptations have never done great. They prefer their own local movies of these properties. But I have a feeling it should do good almost everywhere enough to make decent bank OS.

I never got it doing big in Japan in the first place. Like Pixar, Pokémon has been on a decline there for years since 2013/14.

[cax16]

Pikachu 

 

May 5th(update)

 

6:00pm - 24/392

9:00pm - 40/392

 

May 7th(update)

 

6:00pm - 35/392

9:00pm - 62/392

 

Final update will be Thursday.

Edited May 8, 2019 by cax16

[stealthyfrog]

$150M budget is a bit higher than expected, but Pikachu should still break even if it falls on the low-end of tracking.

[Nova]

8 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

Iron Man was in the 500's so it could be. I hope for higher though.

Iron Man would adjust for way higher and didn't get the booming china market that exists now. Not everything needs to be compared to Iron Man/the MCU. 

 

I'm really not sure what the number for Pikachu is to warrant it being a franchise starter as that $150M budget was way more than I expected.  But if I were to take a guess, I would say $550Mish 

[Mulder]

1 hour ago, Mulder said:

KoTM-104

KoTM-119