The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

Toy Story 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	90	10441	12309	15.18%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today:               1

Total Seats Sold Today:                    84

 

Unadjusted Comps

2.5415x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 9 days before release.

1.8260x as many tickets sold as Aladdin 9 days before release.

2.2107x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters 9 days before release.T-9:

 

Pika         76 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/64 showings   |     6617/7352 seats left    |  10.00% sold]

Aladdin    78 tickets sold [0 sellouts/74 showings   |    9695/10718 seats left    |   9.54% sold]

KotM        34 tickets sold [0 sellouts/90 showings   |  11276/12123 seats left    |   6.97% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

0.9842x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 9 days before release.      

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

T-9:

JW2            109 tickets sold [0 sellouts/111 showings |    9488/11263 seats left  | 15.76% sold]

TS4 (JW)        83 tickets sold [0 sellouts/90 showings  |    8891/10638 seats left  | 16.42% sold]

TS4 (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

[Porthos]

On 6/4/2019 at 10:38 PM, Porthos said:

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-04 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
5	08.738%	6155	Dark Phoenix [combined]
7	04.723%	3327	The Secret Life of Pets 2

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-11 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
9	03.101%	2111	Men in Black International [combined]

 

...

 

No comment.

[Joyous Legion]

2/3 of Pets would be an absolute win, but it will likely be significantly more PS heavy.    

 

The Aladdin to TS4 corridor turned from “a variety of promising franchise movies” into an absolute wasteland. KOTM+RM+XDP+SLOP2+MIBI+Shaft might have a combined opening below 200M, when expectations at one point were over 300M 

Edited June 12, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[TMP]

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

2/3 of Pets would be an absolute win, but it will likely be significantly more PS heavy.    

 

The Aladdin to TS4 corridor turned from “a variety of promising franchise movies” into an absolute wasteland.

Shaftson to the rescue!

Most walk-up heavy film of all time coming up

[filmlover]

5 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

2/3 of Pets would be an absolute win, but it will likely be significantly more PS heavy.    

 

The Aladdin to TS4 corridor turned from “a variety of promising franchise movies” into an absolute wasteland. KOTM+RM+XDP+SLOP2+MIBI+Shaft might have a combined opening below 200M, when expectations at one point were over 300M 

It's not gonna get much better in the weeks ahead. Child's Play, Anna, Yesterday, and Midsommar all feel like small grossers incoming. Getting kind of annoying how we can't seem to go two weeks without at least one movie putting up puny numbers this year.

[Menor the Destroyer]

47 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It's not gonna get much better in the weeks ahead. Child's Play, Anna, Yesterday, and Midsommar all feel like small grossers incoming. Getting kind of annoying how we can't seem to go two weeks without at least one movie putting up puny numbers this year.

But at least in the next few weeks it'll be balanced out by some very nice numbers

[TalismanRing]

Fandango App O/W M-Thur Data

 

Archive under spoiler cut

Spoiler

 

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday	Friday
Black Panther	35,429	36,302	39,934	65,453
Love Simon	863	1,256	2,907
A Wrinkle In Time	3,698	4,864		15,601
A Quiet Place	2,177	4,003	10,665
Blockers	504	1,106	2,931
Rampage	705	1,508	4,109
Truth Or Dare	385	760	2,133
Super Troopers	2,825	3,447	6,881
I Feel Pretty	871	1,610	4,423
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826
Overboard	84	409	1,044
Breaking In	727	1204	2,899
Life Of The Party	587	1,310	3,010
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212
Show Dogs	6	128	369
Book Club	836	1,599	3,283
SW: Solo	13,688	15,855	28,533
Action Point	17	48	197
Upgrade	9	119	522
Adrift	63	308	1,268
Oceans 8	3,009	4,372	11,114
Hereditary	659	1,178	3,181
Hotel Artemis	26	166	520
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337
Tag	314	660	1,448
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266
Sicario 2	788	1282	3,403
Uncle Drew	274	473	1,201
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108
Purge (Wed)	2,885	8,308
Hotel Transylvania 3	1,753	2,674	6,605	14,754
Skyscraper	586	1,019	2,868	7,134
Mamma Mia 2	4,427	5,099	12,117	17,226
Equalizer 2	1,418	2,297	6,073	11,875
Unfriended		71	240	975
MI6		*3328	13,575	27,261
Teen Titans		*462	2,125	4,526
Christopher Robin	1,560	2,442	5,355	11,509
The Spy Who Dumped Me	234	542	1,561	4,222
The Darkest Minds	130	244	579	1,777
Eighth Grade	494	508	720	936
Death of A Nation	148	194	375	1,239
The Meg	1,539	2,944	6,723	16,202
Slender Man	177	418	1,091	3,737
BlackkKlansman	432	682	1,934	5,017
Dog Days (Wed)	115	631	1,536	1,212
Crazy Rich Asians (Wed)	3,651	5,742	20,173	20,102
Alpha	181	283	943	2,069
Mile 22	282	519	1,833	5,200
Happytime Murders	382	*488	1,954	5,602
A.X.L.	32	*60	310	911
Kin	21	141	263	741
Operation Finale (Wed)	415	2,083	4,879	3,915
Searching (1k expansion)	303	588	1,194	2,862
The Nun	2,082	5,938	13,806	28,881
Peppermint	286	863	2,508	4,441
God Bless The Broken Road	6	33	152	282
Predator	1,295	2,476	4,545	13,063
A Simple Favor	564	2,126	4,410	10,381
White Boy Rick	136	567	1,458	4,587
Unbroken 2	88	180	360	659
House With Clocks	897	1469	3607	8,074
Fahrenheit 11/9	164	281	713	1,715
Life Itself	79	162	394	953
Assassination Nation		36	94	382
Night School	1,045	1,756	3,566
Small Foot	734	1,261	2,448
Hellfest	195	304	661
Little Women		65	134
Venom	13,602	13,818	20,867	31,569
A Star Is Born	9,115	11,383	22,641	21,501
First Man	654	909	3,610	7,586
Goosebumps 2	300	631	1,733	3,615
Bad Times at the El Royale	264	481	1,257	3,350
Halloween	9,563	12,980	21,600	36,126
The Hate U Give (2k expansion)	1,026	1,542	1,559	2,055
Hunter Killer	91	368	1,062	2,726
Indivisible	33	89	204	440
Bohemian Rhapsody	7,255	9,026	12,546	26,476
The Nutcracker & the Four Realms	1,659	1,949	2,567	5,518
Nobody's Fool	436	900	1,719	4,437
Grinch	3,580	4,860	10,092	17,046
Girl In The Spider's Web	286	691	1,735	3,554
Overlord	299	605	1,599	4,522
Fantastic Beasts 2	8,956	14,238	21,861	31,880
Widows	310	868	2,219	4,179
Instant Family	230	565	1,325	2,584
Creed II (Wed)	7,005	12,131	15,354	15,559
Ralph 2 (Wed)	6,712	12,083	19,183	15,870
Robin Hood (Wed)	1,602	1846	2,621	2,632
Green Book (1k exp)	387	922	89	2,268
Spider-Verse	3,715	5,208	9,858	3,475
Mortal Engines	465	785	1,504	6,235
The Mule	791	1,779	3,882	19,972
Once Upon A Deadpool (wed)	1,732	3,402	3,621	2,310
Mary Poppins Returns (Wed)	7,713	9,137	16,304	11,857
Aquaman	8,502	9,671	15,063	25,201
Bumblebee	1,553	1,817	3,157	6,056
Second Act	353	611	1,146	1,915
Welcome To Marwen	299	403	658	928
Escape Room	111	368	1,543	7,297
A Dogs Way Home	259	623	1,560	3,257
On the Basis of Sex (2k expand)	537	1,043	2,275	3,511
The Upside	394	1,431	3,769	6,602
Replicas	21	133	352	1,002
Glass	3,106	3,978	6,478	17,810
The Kid Who Would be King	107	318	980
Serenity	6	128	1,074
Miss Bala	350	420	1,041
Lego Movie 2	2,552	4,130	8,601	13,321
What Men Want	1,383	2,505	5,405	9,328
Cold Pursuit	181	827	2,155	4,862
The Prodigy	161	359	847	2,288
Alita (Thur)	4,259	6,072	11,483	15,500
Isn't It Romantic (Wed)	3,576	5.367	12,411	12,304
Happy Death Day 2U (Wed)	1,296	1,843	5,445	5,825
How To Train Your Dragon 2	3,724	6,674	12,935	21,313
Fighting With My Family (2.5k exp)	165	368	1,284
Run The Race			338
Madea Family Funeral	1,587	2,482	4,951
Greta	120	287	824
Captain Marvel	33,951	37,060	49,745	64,456
Captive State	60	172	402
Five Feet Apart	613	1,053	2,225
Wonder Park	607	988	1,749
US	10,742	13,597	27,634	39,514
Dumbo	3,069	4,624	9,193	15,842
Unplanned		754	1,397	2,071
The Beach Bum		99	232	592
Shazam!	5,099		**5,975	17,143
Pet Sematary	2,116		**2,579	8,556
Best of Enemies	251			1,027
Missing Link	162	299	634	1,475
Hellboy	860	1,422	2,561	5,481
After	681	1,098	1,904	3,413
Little	673	1,098	2,450	5,728
Curse of La Llorona	897	1,159	2,704	8,179
Breakthrough  (Wed)	764	1,125	3,606	3,486
Penguins  (Wed)	393	562	1,346	1,179
Avengers EG	53,999	62,351	75,977
Detective Pikachu	5,061	7,653	13,177	23,309
The Hustle	485	1,012	3,787	3,024
Poms	198	474	847
Tolkien	165	394	396
John Wick	7,867	10,932	18,211
Dogs Journey	340	656	1,044
Sun is a Star	124	221	462
Aladdin	9,948	12,418	21,152	31,854
Brightburn	554	858	1,596	3,366
Booksmart	208	448	1,014	2,213
Godzilla	2,585	5,734	11,157	20,381
Rocketman	1,158	3,088	6,634	11,585
Ma	336	912	2,244	6,207
Dark Phoenix	3,925	6,059	9,348	17,133
SLOP 2	2,967	3,245	7,355
Shaft	330	577
MIB Int'l	1,496	2,065
*4pm start
**7pm+ start

 

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday
Shaft	330	577
MIB Int'l	1,496	2,065

 

 

 

[jj99]

Tragic for both.

[TalismanRing]

Shaft's best comp is probably the Equalizer 2- so really not looking good so far 2,297 - 25.11% x  $36.011m = $9.04m

 

MIB Int'l  - more tricky.  Will it behave more like a PG-13 comedy (not many or PG-13 action film?  Will it be front loaded like a franchise even with new stars or more GA walk up friendly? 

 

Tag	314	660	1,448
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108
Skyscraper	586	1,019	2,868

Jurassic World 2

9,310

12,761

23,266

 

Tag (comedy but R Rated)  -  $46.765m

AM & TW = $26.14m

Skyscraper = $50.46m

JW:FK:   $23.95m

Edited June 12, 2019 by TalismanRing

[Eric is Quiet]

Fandango App

Monday

Tues

Wed

Thursday

Blockers

504

1,106

2,931

Breaking In

727

1,204

2,899

Tag	314	660	1,448
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266

Uncle Drew	274	473	1,201
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108

Eighth Grade (1K expansion)

494

508

720

936

The Meg

1,539

2,944

6,723

16,202

 

Searching (1K expansion)

303

588

1,194

2,862

Night School

1,045

1,756

3,566

Nobody's Fool

436

900

1,719

4,437

Instant Family

230

565

1,325

2,584

Green Book (Wed) (1K expansion)

387

922

1,701

2,268

Spider-Verse

3,715

5,208

9,858

19,972

Bumblebee

1,553

1,817

3,157

On the Basis (2K expansion)

537

1,043

2,200

3,511

Lego Movie 2

2,552

4,130

8,601

13,320

How to Train Your Dragon 3	3,724	6,674	12,935	21,313
Fight w/ Family (2.5K expansion)	165	368	1,284	2,657

Pokemon Detective Pikachu

5,061

7,653

13,177

23,309

Godzilla King of the Monsters

2,585

5,734

11,157

20,065

Ma	336	912	2,244	6,215
The Secret Life of Pets 2	2,967	3,245	7,355	12,860

MIB International	1,496	2,065
Shaft	330	577
Late Night (1.5K expansion)	232	348

 

MIB

Tuesday

40% of Spider-Verse (14M)

27% of Pikachu (14.7M)

31% of Dragon 3 (17M)

50% of Lego 2 (17.1M)

36% of King of the Monsters (17.2M)

16% of Fallen Kingdom (23.9M)

114% of Bumblebee (24.6M)

34% of Ant-Man 2 (26.1M)

64% of Pets 2 (30M)

70% of The Meg (31.8M)

 

Day 11-3

50% of Lego 2 (17.2M)

33% of Dragon 3 (18.4M)

59% of Pets 2 (27.4M)

 

Day 16-3

51% of Lego 2 (17.5M)

35% of Dragon 3 (19.4M)

66% of Pets 2 (30.7M)

 

jayz.gif 

 

Shaft

Tuesday

48% of Breaking In (8.4M)

64% of Nobody's Fool (8.8M)

33% of Night School (9M)

52% of Blockers (10.7M)

63% of Ma (11.4M)

87% of Tag (13.1M)

102% of Instant Family (14.8M)

122% of Uncle Drew (18.6M)

 

Well...at least we have potentially good holds for Aladdin and/or Pets to look forward to. 

 

Late Night

Monday

68% of Eighth Grade (1.9M)

33% of On the Basis of Sex (2M)

38% of Green Book (2.1M 3-Day, 2.8M 5-Day)

59% of Searching (3.6M 3-Day, 4.5M 4-Day)

95% of Fighting with my Family (7.4M)

 

Man, Mickey's Law is really taking no prisoners.

[Blaze Heatnix]

Wow, MIB 4 is probably getting a sub 18/20 million opening. A crappy 2,5x multiplier would give a final 50 million domestic. 

[Tinalera]

June 14 london Ontario

Late Night

Silvercity no shows 
 
Westmount
4 shows 1 screen 

Recliner
120 4/59
420 0/59
730 2/59
1020 0/59

Shaft
4 shows 1 screen

Recliner
120 0/111
420 0/111
740 0/111
1020 0/111

Westmount no shows

Men in black international
3 shows 1 screen
415 0/93
715 5/93
1030 2/93

Westmount

VIP
7 shows 2 screens 3VIP 4 recliner (1 3d 3 non 3d

VIP

340 0/93
640 0/93
1020 0/93

Recliner

120 0/101
420 3/101 (3d)
720 2/101
1030 0/ 101

So taking a look ahead to friday maybe things are better.....ummm no not really. 

[titanic2187]

They say 4th movie always suffered at the box office for a well-built franchise ....MIB 4 is another example.

[UserHN]

3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

They say 4th movie always suffered at the box office for a well-built franchise ....MIB 4 is another example.

Are you predicting that TS4 will gross below TS3 worldwide?

[TalismanRing]

35 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

They say 4th movie always suffered at the box office for a well-built franchise ....MIB 4 is another example.

AEG says hi

 

But well built?  Domestically, the movies have been on a downward trajectory since the first.  Even more so when adjusted for inflation where the second dropped 40% and the third 33%

 

 

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Adjusted Gross	Unadjusted Gross	Release
1	Men in Black	Sony	$492,096,200	$250,690,539	7/2/97
2	Men in Black II	Sony	$295,296,600	$190,418,803	7/3/02
3	MIB 3	Sony	$199,238,100	$179,020,854	5/25/12

 

 

[Immortal]

48 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

They say 4th movie always suffered at the box office for a well-built franchise ....MIB 4 is another example.

This must be the reason for Endgame not passing avatar

[MrFanaticGuy34]

2 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

They say 4th movie always suffered at the box office for a well-built franchise ....MIB 4 is another example.

Not always though for all franchises. Fast & Furious, Jurassic World, Harry Potter & the Goblet of Fire, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, Spectre, Lethal Weapon 4, Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 1, Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol & most recently...Endgame & Toy Story 4 are exceptions. It proved that those fourthquels did not gross the lowest in their own respective franchises as long as they are/were big money-makers.

Edited June 12, 2019 by MrFanaticGuy34

[Justin4125]

1 hour ago, Immortal said:

This must be the reason for Endgame not passing avatar

That would be exchange rates, nothing more nothing less

 

EDIT: I know this fact upsets some people, so to be fair to those who revere Avatar's place on the WW chart (or are otherwise offended by the MCU's success) I will concede that exchange rates wouldn't much matter if Avatar was released in today's China 

Edited June 12, 2019 by Justin4125

[el sid]

Pulse today 8:35-8:49 EST:

MiBI: 33/15 – on Monday it were 7/15; Dark Phoenix had at that time on Wednesday 102/15, Cold Pursuit (Liam Neeson) 27/15, HtTYD3 100/15, Shazam had on Thursday 175/15.
Shaft: 15/15 – on Monday 2/15; unfortunately I have only vague Equalizer 2 numbers. John Wick 3 (could be also useful as a comp for MiBI) had at that time on Wednesday 161/15, again Cold Pursuit 27/15, Hellboy 29/15 and maybe partly fitting could be What Men Want which had at that time 44/15.
So far surprisingly low for both newcomers.

Toy Story 4: 26/15

Child's Play: 3/15

And Pulse 10:35-10:49 EST:

MiBI: 101/15 – on Monday 29/15; Dark Phoenix had at that time on Wednesday 154/15, Cold Pursuit 25/15, HtTYD3 134/15, Shazam had on Thursday 322/15.
Shaft: 18/15 – on Monday 7/15; John Wick 3 had at that time on Wednesday 245/15, Cold Pursuit 25/15, Hellboy 28/15, What Men Want 56/15.
So at the moment it still looks pretty bad for MiBI (e.g. compared to Dark Phoenix its OW would be around 22M) but at least it had a significant jump in the second counting.

Toy Story 4: 57/15 – very good.
Child's Play: 2/15

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, el sid said:

Pulse today 8:35-8:49 EST:

MiBI: 33/15 – on Monday it were 7/15; Dark Phoenix had at that time on Wednesday 102/15, Cold Pursuit (Liam Neeson) 27/15, HtTYD3 100/15, Shazam had on Thursday 175/15.
Shaft: 15/15 – on Monday 2/15; unfortunately I have only vague Equalizer 2 numbers. John Wick 3 (could be also useful as a comp for MiBI) had at that time on Wednesday 161/15, again Cold Pursuit 27/15, Hellboy 29/15 and maybe partly fitting could be What Men Want which had at that time 44/15.
So far surprisingly low for both newcomers.

Toy Story 4: 26/15

Child's Play: 3/15

And Pulse 10:35-10:49 EST:

MiBI: 101/15 – on Monday 29/15; Dark Phoenix had at that time on Wednesday 154/15, Cold Pursuit 25/15, HtTYD3 134/15, Shazam had on Thursday 322/15.
Shaft: 18/15 – on Monday 7/15; John Wick 3 had at that time on Wednesday 245/15, Cold Pursuit 25/15, Hellboy 28/15, What Men Want 56/15.
So at the moment it still looks pretty bad for MiBI (e.g. compared to Dark Phoenix its OW would be around 22M) but at least it had a significant jump in the second counting.

Toy Story 4: 57/15 – very good.
Child's Play: 2/15

Weird that MIB played a lot better later in the morning, but I suppose there was really nowhere to go but up.