The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[lorddemaxus]

23 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Yeah, 11 day PS run will be very short for a CBM. Maybe another sign that they view it as more of a Oscar-y adult character drama than action blockbuster CBM fare.     

 

Or maybe they just think it will get more hype that way 🤷‍♂️

Star is Born presales started a bit more than 3 weeks before release. So it's a bit odd.

[DAJK]

Ad Astra's Saturday is 132% of its true Friday (conservatively)… I missed the first matinee show so I extrapolated from yesterday but I went the conservative route. So it may be closer to 137%. 

That would give it 7.6-7.75M Saturday. Weekend around 19.5-20M but that's just my numbers, not sure what anyone else's theatre did.

 

Rambo fell from true Friday. Not by much at all. I'd guess 16.9M weekend or something. 

 

Not even going to bother with Downton Abbey. It sold out today. It sold out yesterday. It almost sold out Thursday. Can't really play with those numbers a whole lot. 

Edited September 22, 2019 by DAJK

[Porthos]

49 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Yeah, 11 day PS run will be very short for a CBM. Maybe another sign that they view it as more of a Oscar-y adult character drama than action blockbuster CBM fare.     

 

Or maybe they just think it will get more hype that way 🤷‍♂️

whynotboth.gif

 

=====

 

FWIW, and it only having 11 days of pre-sales will mess with this a bit, but Joker will open with at least 180 showtimes in the Greater Sacramento area.

 

(yes, that’s s lot)

 

That number will go up as Regal is being a bit conservative with its showtimes at some of its theaters.  Mostly it’s from Century going nuts locally.  Even though a couple of them soft-cancelled an 11:30 showing, they’re piling up the showtimes, as I mentioned before.  Cinema West is also goosing the showtimes as well.

 

So much in fact, that if this is being replicated nationwide, I’d absolutely expect both the internal and weekend multipliers to be affected, as demand is gonna get sucked up with so many great seats available at prime viewing hours.

 

I’m pretty sure something similar happened with both TLK and It 2 as there was way more capacity than demand.  The 4pm start time ain’t gonna help matters here, either.

 

Just warning  ahead of time not to read too much into whatever the preview number ends up being.

 

(yes, I know the warning is in vain, but I am an eternal optimist  )

[Porthos]

As an additional point, as I'm sure @TalismanRing would point out if this became an issue, it makes rational sense for any given theater to "overload" on Joker screenings if they think those extra screenings will still do measurably better than whatever holdovers are out there.

 

Given what'll be out and for how long, that's probably a safe bet on their parts.

 

All I'm really doing is trying to set some expectations on what the multi/legs might be like, even if this has great reception from the GA (which is very much an open question). 

 

===

 

tl;dr: Burning demand is a real thing and we should be ready for that.  Especially during the OW.  Temper expectations off the preview number accordingly.

[Cap]

Between it being super dead for hold overs and superhero films fountloading, it would make the most sense to over book screens on Joker OW.  That's when you're going to get the most captive audience.  You can always go back to one screen the following weekend.

[keysersoze123]

AMC Empire 25 showtimes are listed. It has whooping 52 shows(9 Imax/Dolby/Prime shows and 43 2d shows !!!! ). That is higher than lion king.

[cdsacken]

13 hours ago, Porthos said:

whynotboth.gif

 

=====

 

FWIW, and it only having 11 days of pre-sales will mess with this a bit, but Joker will open with at least 180 showtimes in the Greater Sacramento area.

 

(yes, that’s s lot)

 

That number will go up as Regal is being a bit conservative with its showtimes at some of its theaters.  Mostly it’s from Century going nuts locally.  Even though a couple of them soft-cancelled an 11:30 showing, they’re piling up the showtimes, as I mentioned before.  Cinema West is also goosing the showtimes as well.

 

So much in fact, that if this is being replicated nationwide, I’d absolutely expect both the internal and weekend multipliers to be affected, as demand is gonna get sucked up with so many great seats available at prime viewing hours.

 

I’m pretty sure something similar happened with both TLK and It 2 as there was way more capacity than demand.  The 4pm start time ain’t gonna help matters here, either.

 

Just warning  ahead of time not to read too much into whatever the preview number ends up being.

 

(yes, I know the warning is in vain, but I am an eternal optimist  )

I expect Joker to be very front loaded for the weekend. Legs depends on overall reception. Super decisive complex ending films often don't do well long term (see US for reference)

[cdsacken]

5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

AMC Empire 25 showtimes are listed. It has whooping 52 shows(9 Imax/Dolby/Prime shows and 43 2d shows !!!! ). That is higher than lion king.

Do you anticipate it even even sniffing 150 OW? For me it's 110 at the high end. 

[cdsacken]

13 hours ago, captainwondyful said:

Between it being super dead for hold overs and superhero films fountloading, it would make the most sense to over book screens on Joker OW.  That's when you're going to get the most captive audience.  You can always go back to one screen the following weekend.

Totally agree. It's very smart. Don't they only get one week of IMAX?

[Eric Prime]

@cdsacken You know that Multi-Quote exists, right?

[cdsacken]

Just now, Eric! said:

@cdsacken You know that Multi-Quote exists, right?

Yeah forgot to use it

[Inceptionzq]

On 9/21/2019 at 4:28 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil Thursday Night Denver

AMC Westminster 24
3D:
7:30 PM	5	48
10:20 PM	3	48
2D:
7:00 PM	12	158
10:05 PM	0	158
Total	20	412

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
46	4	3049	1.508691374	7	23

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil Thursday Night Denver

AMC Westminster 24
3D:
7:30 PM	5	48
10:20 PM	3	48
2D:
7:00 PM	12	158
10:05 PM	0	158

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
46	0	3049	1.51%	7	23

Probably gonna stop posting this until TLK comp comes around in a week. Hopefully it'll pick up some more steam by then

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

AMC Empire 25 showtimes are listed. It has whooping 52 shows(9 Imax/Dolby/Prime shows and 43 2d shows !!!! ). That is higher than lion king.

 

AMC Willowbrook 24 has 10 listed. I could see a film like Joker playing heavier in NYC than some other places, but I think 52 is a bit much lol

[FlashMaster659]

The Harkins and Regency theaters along with the Terra Vista theater still have yet to post their showtimes. Guess they'll do so tomorrow with the ticket launch. Excluding those, Joker looks to be starting with 120 shows in the Inland Empire.

[Eric Prime]

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-25 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	23	80	5,941	1.35%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 2

[Eric Prime]

As for Joker, showtimes are aplenty here. 71 showings have been posted thus far. Don't know how that compares to other movies before presales, but it's still higher than the every movie's final showtimes, apart from Lion King and It2, so obviously very, very impressive

[keysersoze123]

6 hours ago, cdsacken said:

Do you anticipate it even even sniffing 150 OW? For me it's 110 at the high end. 

I am predicting 120m. Optimistic for sure. Hype is there but marketing of WB off late have not been good. I felt they did terrible job with Shazam and IT2. So we have to see how things go next 2 weeks.

[kitik]

21 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

Or maybe they just think it will get more hype that way

 

 

Presales should be through the roof for the next week and a half, so it could certainly be an interesting attempt at building hype.

 

Personally, I hope it works. Putting tickets on sale 2 months in advance is stupid (I'm looking at you, Charlies Angels). Nobody needs to buy a movie ticket two months in advance. Maybe a plane ticket or even a big concert ticket, okay. But not a ticket for a movie that's going to have 50 showtimes on preview night alone.

 

So I hope this short Joker strategy works, and I hope it encourages other movies to go for a shorter presale window in the future.

 

 

20 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

So much in fact, that if this is being replicated nationwide, I’d absolutely expect both the internal and weekend multipliers to be affected, as demand is gonna get sucked up with so many great seats available at prime viewing hours.

 

We may also be looking at WB trying to mitigate against possible "bad" WOM here. Now obviously I haven't seen the movie, though I'm totally looking forward to it, so I may be way off base here, but I get the impression that it may not be what you'd call a crowd-pleaser. When the GA goes to a big comic book movie, they usually want something fun and uplifting like Black Panther or Ant-Man or Aquaman or Shazam, not Apocalypse Now.

 

If they can load as many sales as possible onto opening night, that would obviously make up for any decreases later in the weekend.

 

That said, maybe I'll be wrong and the GA will love it even more than the critics do. We'll see.

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, kitik said:

So I hope this short Joker strategy works, and I hope it encourages other movies to go for a shorter presale window in the future.

*tries to imagine how crazy bananas it would be to try to track TROS with only 11 says of pre-sales*

 

[kitik]

My local theater has also listed a bunch of times that are not on sale yet for Gemini Man.

 

You can buy Addams Family tickets for that week, but not Gemini Man yet. Go figure.

 

On the plus side, looks like Gemini Man is getting a nice, sane 7pm opening.